According to Jin10 data, the European Central Bank may keep the interest rate unchanged at 2% in its last decision before the summer break to address the economic risks brought by Trump's tariffs. Policymakers are aware of the lurking risks, with a strengthening euro suppressing price prospects and squeezing exporters, while France's public finance issues could trigger a political crisis.
Morgan Stanley economists point out that President Lagarde may reiterate in her statement that the growth risks 'tend to be on the downside.' The wording after the meeting on July 24 is expected to be similar to June, keeping the possibility of further rate cuts but without making a commitment.