According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin (BTC) may be approaching the final phase of its current bull market cycle, with historical patterns based on halving events suggesting a potential market peak by October 2025. Analysts, including CryptoBullet, have identified a recurring "tick-tock" fractal that indicates Bitcoin tends to reach its peak approximately 518 to 546 days following each halving event. The most recent halving took place on April 15, 2024, and as of late July 2025, Bitcoin is nearing a critical point with only 77 days remaining before a possible post-halving bull market peak, should historical trends continue.
CryptoBullet has highlighted that the next potential peak could occur by October, with many analysts forecasting Bitcoin's price to reach between $130,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year. Some even speculate a bull run could push the price toward $200,000. Onchain data further supports the possibility of a Bitcoin price rally in the coming months. A key metric, analyzed by CryptoQuant's Axel Adler Jr., compares the activity of new versus old investors and reveals that young coins, representing recent buyers, now account for 30% of overall market activity. This level is significantly lower than the overheated peaks of 64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024, which coincided with local price tops. Historically, when new investor activity dominates the market, it often signals a period of euphoria and profit-taking.
Currently, the market still has room for further upside before reaching such conditions. The uptrend indicates growing demand from new entrants, while long-term holders have not shown signs of capitulation. Adler Jr. notes that "old holders are still selling moderately," with a coefficient of 0.3 suggesting that the supply of three-year-old coins is absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations. From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market appears balanced. This ongoing equilibrium is partly due to strong absorption from institutions, as corporations and ETFs continue to accumulate Bitcoin steadily. This accumulation helps offset intermittent sell-side pressure, ensuring sufficient supply absorption by large players, which has been able to contain short-term selling pressures. As a result, the market remains structurally healthy as it progresses deeper into the late stages of the bull cycle. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
