btcprice

Key Insights
Standard Chartered says the recent BTC sell-off may be nearing exhaustion, with multiple on-chain metrics resetting to historical reversal zones.MicroStrategy’s mNAV has dropped to 1.0, a level previously associated with capitulation and rebound phases.BTC slipped below $90,000, but analysts say the correction resembles past “fast, painful” pullbacks that preceded recoveries.Realized loss margin sits at –16%, deeper than the –12% threshold that historically aligns with market bottoms.
Price Action Analysis
BTC continues to trade in a volatile corrective structure, with liquidity draining due to risk-off macro conditions.Breakdowns are increasingly shallow, suggesting sellers may be losing strength despite pushing below key psychological levels.The market is caught between:Bullish factors → undervaluation signals, realized-loss extremes, institutional bottom-watchingBearish factors → weekly SuperTrend flipping to sell, with historical declines averaging 61% after such signalsShort-term price movements remain heavily influenced by ETF outflows and macro rotation into safer yield-bearing assets.
What Traders Should Watch
Key Support: $88,000–$90,000 — holding this range strengthens the year-end rally thesis.Key Resistance: $94,000 → $98,000 — reclaiming these zones confirms trend recovery.On-chain metrics: realized loss margin, NUPL, and spent output profit ratio (SOPR) will signal whether seller exhaustion is real.Macro Risk: Government debt absorption and “taxed liquidity” could temporarily suppress BTC’s upside potential.SuperTrend Risk: The weekly sell flip may still imply volatility or deeper tests before reversal.
Trader Recommendations (Not Financial Advice)
Swing Traders: Look for confirmation signals such as a strong reclaim of $94K with volume before entering.Dip Buyers: Accumulation zones appear between $86K–$90K, but scaling in slowly is safer due to macro instability.Risk Management: Set broader stop ranges — volatility is elevated, and liquidity is thin.Watch institutional cues: If ETF outflows slow and liquidity improves, BTC’s rebound probability rises sharply.



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Analysis of Bitcoin's Recent Movement
Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop, falling below a crucial support level and breaking a pattern that traders had relied on for favorable price movements. This decline has led to a shift in sentiment from bullish to cautious, prompting traders to consider selling rebounds instead of buying dips.
Implications of Breaching the 50-week SMA
The breach of the 50-week simple moving average indicates the invalidation of a key demand area and suggests a potential prolonged period of selling pressure. The former support level has now become a resistance level, with any potential bounce likely to encounter resistance around $102,868.
Comparison with Previous Market Movements
Drawing parallels with past market behavior, the erosion of confidence following the breach of the 50-week SMA is reminiscent of a similar scenario involving the company's Strategy. This historical precedent serves as a cautionary tale, indicating the possibility of an extended sell-off in Bitcoin's price. Impact on MSTRMSTR, a prominent BTC holding firm, has also declined after falling below its 50-week SMA in September. This firm's stock price has dropped to $200, the lowest level since October 2024.
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BTC has tumbled nearly 9% this week, while ETH, SOL declined even further and$XRP outperformed.
What to know:
Bitcoin was at session lows late in the U.S. trading day Friday, sliding below $95,000.The market downturn attributed to "information vacuum" and diminishing expectations of Fed rate cut, analysts said.The breakdown puts $84,000 level as next downside target, Ledn's CIO said.
Bitcoin $BTC $95,813.85 saw no bounce Friday, holding at session lows below $95,000 late in the U.S. day after a bruising week that dragged prices to their lowest since May.
The largest cryptocurrency is again underperforming U.S. stocks, with major U.S. indices holding onto minor gains a few minutes prior to the end of trading. BTC was on track to log a 9% loss for the week, its worts performance in eight months.
Ethereum ETH$3,159.58, trading below $3,200, fared worse, tumbling more than 11% since Monday, while Solana’s SOL SOL$140.76 lost 15% over the same period. XRP$2.2620 held up better, dipping just 1%, perhaps buoyed by this week's debut of its first spot ETF in the U.S., issued by Canary Capital.
Crypto-related equities performed mixed after Thursday's steep losses. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest public holder of bitcoin, slid another 4% to below $200 for the first time since October 2024. Exchange Bullish (BLSH), Ethereum treasury BitMine (BMNR), miners CleanSpark (CLSK), MARA Holdings (MARA) and Hive Digital (HIVE) slid 4%-7%.
On the positive side, miner Hut 8 bounced 6% following earnings results from American Bitcoin, a joint venture with the Trump family, while digital brokerage Robinhood (HOOD) and BTC miner Riot Platforms (RIOT) advanced around 3%.
'Information vacuum' clouds investor confidence
The current market downturn is largely driven by a lack of clarity on key U.S. economic conditions and subsequent monetary policy direction, Bitfinex analysts said. That data blackout was due to the longest U.S. government shutdown that lasted from October 1 until Thursday, that suspended government inflation and jobs data releases.
"The market retracement is the result of an information vacuum and political uncertainty," they wrote in a Friday note shared with CoinDesk. "Key economic data is still missing to guide the market and the Federal Reserve, putting investors on standby.
However, the shutdown-ending spending bill that lawmakers passed only provides funding to keep the government open until 30 January, weighing on investor sentiment. "The temporary funding bill doesn’t resolve the uncertainty — it just pushes the issue further down the road." Bitfinex analysts added.
Noelle Acheson, author of Crypto Is Macro Now, said the recent drawdown was a necessary correction after months of range-bound consolidation that failed to sustain a breakout above $120,000. "We need to get through this flush before we can breathe more easily," she wrote. "Once that happens, the longer-term case for BTC strengthens — but we’re not there yet."
The main driver for BTC remains macro liquidity, Acheson added. While another Fed rate cut might not arrive until later in the first quarter of 2026, expectations for balance sheet adjustments or other easing measures and "liquidity injections" could help rebuild optimism around risk assets including $BTC , she said.
BTC headed to $84K, Ledn CIO says
Meanwhile, technical indicators suggest bitcoin may still have plenty of room to fall, said John Glover, chief investment officer at crypto lending firm Ledn.
He noted that to a breakdown below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at just below $100,000 opened the path to the next key support level, sitting at around $84,000.
Glover believes the current pullback is part of bitcoin's bear market, forecasting volatile action for the upcoming months. "We’ll likely see prices back above $100,000 before any sustained break below $90,000," he said, noting that the full correction could play out through the summer of 2026.
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