Pelin Ay
Verified Creator
High-Frequency Trader
5 Years
Yazar/Analist/Trader
23 Following
4.7K+ Followers
5.8K+ Liked
749 Shared
All
Quotes
Videos
Last week, $DYX, which had been short-correlated with #Bitcoin, returned to its normal course and began falling as #bitcoin rose. It's clear this decline will fall to 98.16. However, I believe it will then reverse upwards. This is because $BTC will likely find a peak and then fall. I expect this peak to reach $102K this week, but it appears to be relatively low volume. I'm keeping a close eye on the short.
Ethereum Binance Reserves Rising
The chart clearly shows that the Ethereum Exchange Reserve has been in a continuous downtrend, particularly since July 2025. This decline reached levels of 3.8 million by the end of November, the lowest level in recent months. The fact that the reserve never fell below $1.4K indicates that the ETH price has formed a strong base around $1.4K. The price never dropped below $1.4K, and aggressive buying followed each test. This movement demonstrates that the 1.4K level is a strong support level in terms of supply and demand.
While this base level has been maintained, the continuous decline in reserves during the same period should have positively impacted the price, but the price has actually decreased proportionally to the reserve. I interpret this as a rallying cry for whales at $1.4K. Therefore, any hold above 1.4K may be paving the way for the start of a temporary upward trend.
The final section of the chart shows a small but significant upward movement in the reserves after the sharp decline. This means that ETH withdrawn from Binance is being held in cold wallets, not sold. Small increases in reserves, however, transfer ETH held in wallets to the exchange for purchase. This is typically a move that sends ETH to the exchange for sale during a rally following a bottom confirmation. In other words, there are investors willing to sell during the initial upward movement. This indicates that ETH, which fell from $4,950 to $2,600, has found a temporary bottom and is expected to rise to $3,325. The downtrend will then continue, with the price aiming to reach the base support of $1,400.
SMA30 and supply pressure are converging at $1.6K.
This area will be a test of strength for the uptrend. Even if sharp spikes occur at $1.4K, I believe buyers will emerge within this range. $ETH
The chart clearly shows that the Ethereum Exchange Reserve has been in a continuous downtrend, particularly since July 2025. This decline reached levels of 3.8 million by the end of November, the lowest level in recent months. The fact that the reserve never fell below $1.4K indicates that the ETH price has formed a strong base around $1.4K. The price never dropped below $1.4K, and aggressive buying followed each test. This movement demonstrates that the 1.4K level is a strong support level in terms of supply and demand.
While this base level has been maintained, the continuous decline in reserves during the same period should have positively impacted the price, but the price has actually decreased proportionally to the reserve. I interpret this as a rallying cry for whales at $1.4K. Therefore, any hold above 1.4K may be paving the way for the start of a temporary upward trend.
The final section of the chart shows a small but significant upward movement in the reserves after the sharp decline. This means that ETH withdrawn from Binance is being held in cold wallets, not sold. Small increases in reserves, however, transfer ETH held in wallets to the exchange for purchase. This is typically a move that sends ETH to the exchange for sale during a rally following a bottom confirmation. In other words, there are investors willing to sell during the initial upward movement. This indicates that ETH, which fell from $4,950 to $2,600, has found a temporary bottom and is expected to rise to $3,325. The downtrend will then continue, with the price aiming to reach the base support of $1,400.
SMA30 and supply pressure are converging at $1.6K.
This area will be a test of strength for the uptrend. Even if sharp spikes occur at $1.4K, I believe buyers will emerge within this range. $ETH
Save beautiful Setup $ACT
If #Spell rebounds from the $0.000255 double bottom, we could have a good long opportunity in the futures. $SPELL
I caught a symmetrical triangle. The price is stuck, so let's follow it, it gives a trading opportunity. $IDOL
Seller Pressure in Bitcoin Hinders the Bulls
The chart shows increasing selling pressure, particularly since mid-2025. This suggests that aggressive selling is more dominant than aggressive buying in terms of volume. It is particularly noteworthy that the Taker Bid-Ask Ratio (Binance) frequently drops below 1, while the 30-day SMA also falls below 1. This indicates a more downward trend-like selling pressure, independent of short-term volatile movements. The 0.97 dip in the 30-day MA indicates strong volatile selling pressure in the market.
After mid-2025, the Taker Bid-Ask Ratio decreased, while the BTC price began to slope upwards and downwards from the same center, revealing a parallelism between the price and the TBSR. This suggests that the price is reflecting seller dominance.
The chart timeframe shows the TBSR rising from 1.10–1.15. However, these declines remained short-term reactionary increases and short entry zones. Buyers aren't strong enough to turn the market upwards.
The TBSR has been below 1 for approximately the last two years, and the price has entered a long-term decline. During the same period, the BTC price fell from $120,000 to $81,000. This confirms the main downward trend of the strong BTC price.
Last week, sellers decreased, buyers began appearing more frequently, and the 30-day SMA remains low. I interpret this move as a continuation of the price's downward movement, and I believe sellers could pull back to $100,000. Don't be fooled by the nature of this downward pressure; it's highly likely that it will remain a mere movement. If the 30-day SMA breaks above 1, the potential for a price reaction to the $100,000 range increases.
Taker selling intensity is high.
Aggressive selling continues in the spot and futures markets. However, any upward price reaction will easily lead to pressure. Therefore, the main downward trend ($70,000) will remain downward. $BTC
The chart shows increasing selling pressure, particularly since mid-2025. This suggests that aggressive selling is more dominant than aggressive buying in terms of volume. It is particularly noteworthy that the Taker Bid-Ask Ratio (Binance) frequently drops below 1, while the 30-day SMA also falls below 1. This indicates a more downward trend-like selling pressure, independent of short-term volatile movements. The 0.97 dip in the 30-day MA indicates strong volatile selling pressure in the market.
After mid-2025, the Taker Bid-Ask Ratio decreased, while the BTC price began to slope upwards and downwards from the same center, revealing a parallelism between the price and the TBSR. This suggests that the price is reflecting seller dominance.
The chart timeframe shows the TBSR rising from 1.10–1.15. However, these declines remained short-term reactionary increases and short entry zones. Buyers aren't strong enough to turn the market upwards.
The TBSR has been below 1 for approximately the last two years, and the price has entered a long-term decline. During the same period, the BTC price fell from $120,000 to $81,000. This confirms the main downward trend of the strong BTC price.
Last week, sellers decreased, buyers began appearing more frequently, and the 30-day SMA remains low. I interpret this move as a continuation of the price's downward movement, and I believe sellers could pull back to $100,000. Don't be fooled by the nature of this downward pressure; it's highly likely that it will remain a mere movement. If the 30-day SMA breaks above 1, the potential for a price reaction to the $100,000 range increases.
Taker selling intensity is high.
Aggressive selling continues in the spot and futures markets. However, any upward price reaction will easily lead to pressure. Therefore, the main downward trend ($70,000) will remain downward. $BTC
XRP Short Positions Trigger Selling Pressure
The recent predominance of negative funding is striking on the chart. Negative funding means more short positions are opening bearish positions across the market. In other words, sentiment in the futures market is weak and there is selling pressure. Negativity has deepened, but the potential for a mass, panic-filled short squeeze hasn't yet begun. The price has been in a clear downtrend in recent weeks. The simultaneous price drop while funding is negative confirms the price drop and the futures position.
As everyone in the futures market takes short positions, the trend becomes more likely to continue. This is because, as long as short pressure persists, appetite for long positions remains low.
In this case, the likelihood of the price retesting the $2.0-$1.9 range increases. This doesn't necessarily mean a decline; it's simply a scenario where the current chart structure favors it. However, if negative funding deepens in the coming days, then short positions should be stopped and liquidity cleared as the price moves from sideways to the $2.25–$2.35 range.
In summary, the price is in a downtrend, and shorting is intense but not excessive. We can say that the short-term direction is under downward pressure. A drop below -0.01 could push the price down to $1.9. $XRP
The recent predominance of negative funding is striking on the chart. Negative funding means more short positions are opening bearish positions across the market. In other words, sentiment in the futures market is weak and there is selling pressure. Negativity has deepened, but the potential for a mass, panic-filled short squeeze hasn't yet begun. The price has been in a clear downtrend in recent weeks. The simultaneous price drop while funding is negative confirms the price drop and the futures position.
As everyone in the futures market takes short positions, the trend becomes more likely to continue. This is because, as long as short pressure persists, appetite for long positions remains low.
In this case, the likelihood of the price retesting the $2.0-$1.9 range increases. This doesn't necessarily mean a decline; it's simply a scenario where the current chart structure favors it. However, if negative funding deepens in the coming days, then short positions should be stopped and liquidity cleared as the price moves from sideways to the $2.25–$2.35 range.
In summary, the price is in a downtrend, and shorting is intense but not excessive. We can say that the short-term direction is under downward pressure. A drop below -0.01 could push the price down to $1.9. $XRP
I anticipate a rally to $3,300 with a double bottom for Ethereum. This level is also a seasonal peak according to financial astrology. I expect this level to be tested first, followed by a continued decline. $2,500 is a key support area. If it breaks, we'll begin to see the true version of the trailer we've been watching for altcoins (delists, bankruptcies, etc.). $ETH
Bitcoin closed the week above $81,500. If it completes the OBO pattern, I expect a downward reversal to the $102,600 and maximum $110,000 range. We'll see a short-term rally. Don't let this fool you.
#Bitcoin fell approximately $40,000 from $123,000 last month. Despite this, there are still those who refuse to accept that we've entered bear season. Please don't place stop-loss trades. Our main direction is down.
For those who say we haven't experienced a bull run, so we shouldn't enter a bear season, I've always stated that not every altcoin experiences a bull run. $BTC , $SOL , and others experienced their bull runs. We should base our bull market on Bitcoin for the season. I believe the bull run will be around $50,000.
If an upward move occurs to complete the OBO pattern, which I expect it to, it will be a breakout opportunity, not a buy.
#Bitcoin fell approximately $40,000 from $123,000 last month. Despite this, there are still those who refuse to accept that we've entered bear season. Please don't place stop-loss trades. Our main direction is down.
For those who say we haven't experienced a bull run, so we shouldn't enter a bear season, I've always stated that not every altcoin experiences a bull run. $BTC , $SOL , and others experienced their bull runs. We should base our bull market on Bitcoin for the season. I believe the bull run will be around $50,000.
If an upward move occurs to complete the OBO pattern, which I expect it to, it will be a breakout opportunity, not a buy.
📊 Binance BTC Exchange Netflow Outflows Could Push Price Above $100K
There was a notable Bitcoin outflow from Binance at the end of November. Outflows, particularly between November 23rd and 28th, were repeated in the -2.5K to -4K BTC range.
The outflow of BTC from the exchange signifies a decrease in selling, a tendency to HODL, and a supply squeeze, which has a positive impact on the price. The chart shows that the BTC price recovered from the $85K region to $91K during this period. The main reason for this recovery is likely the negative netflow.
Between November 1st and 10th, large inflows into the exchange created selling pressure, pushing the price down from $105K to $81K. During this period, inflows totaling approximately 5K-6K BTC were recorded. The chart clearly confirms this.
In the most recent data, the red netflow bars are still dominant, but they have diminished. Net flow has been around -300 to -500 BTC in recent days, not excessively so but still negative. The price has also recovered to $91.3K. As long as net outflow continues, there will be structural positive pressure on the price. I predict this will push the price above $100K in the short term. In other words, we are in an environment where selling pressure is weak. $BTC
There was a notable Bitcoin outflow from Binance at the end of November. Outflows, particularly between November 23rd and 28th, were repeated in the -2.5K to -4K BTC range.
The outflow of BTC from the exchange signifies a decrease in selling, a tendency to HODL, and a supply squeeze, which has a positive impact on the price. The chart shows that the BTC price recovered from the $85K region to $91K during this period. The main reason for this recovery is likely the negative netflow.
Between November 1st and 10th, large inflows into the exchange created selling pressure, pushing the price down from $105K to $81K. During this period, inflows totaling approximately 5K-6K BTC were recorded. The chart clearly confirms this.
In the most recent data, the red netflow bars are still dominant, but they have diminished. Net flow has been around -300 to -500 BTC in recent days, not excessively so but still negative. The price has also recovered to $91.3K. As long as net outflow continues, there will be structural positive pressure on the price. I predict this will push the price above $100K in the short term. In other words, we are in an environment where selling pressure is weak. $BTC
The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio is at its lowest level in history.
This ratio has now fallen to its lowest level in history, as clearly seen in the chart. This is a critical signal because the decrease in stablecoin liquidity on the Binance Exchange indicates a lack of new buyer power. A narrowing buyer base means it will be more difficult to cover the sell-off when it does occur.
Even if the BTC price rises, the buying power is not supportive. This causes the rises to be short-lived and lacking in volume. Because there are few buyers, there is little power to sustain the rise.
The BTC price chart has recently seen a significant decline, and during this decline, the ratio reached new lows. This is because there is no large buyer base, no new capital, and little idle cash in the market. In this environment, it is difficult for the price to rise and easier to fall.
The scarcity of stablecoins creates a liquidity gap. This gap, if selling pressure arises, accelerates declines because there are no buyers to cover them. This chart fully supports this.
The lack of buyers makes it difficult to form a stable bottom. A bottom requires demand, purchasing power, and cash on hand. As the chart shows, none of these conditions are met in the current chart.
When the Stablecoin Ratio is low, the market's capacity to recover from the bottom is limited. Therefore,
supports continue to break more easily. Price recoveries are weak.
This low Stablecoin Ratio indicates a significant lack of dollar liquidity in the market. This weakens BTC's upward momentum. If severe selling pressure occurs, the price risks falling to $72,000.
Whales can easily move the price due to low liquidity. Small sell-offs can lead to large bottoms.
For this chart to turn positive, new capital inflow is required. There is currently no reversal signal. I believe this chart is evidence of a bearish season. $BTC
This ratio has now fallen to its lowest level in history, as clearly seen in the chart. This is a critical signal because the decrease in stablecoin liquidity on the Binance Exchange indicates a lack of new buyer power. A narrowing buyer base means it will be more difficult to cover the sell-off when it does occur.
Even if the BTC price rises, the buying power is not supportive. This causes the rises to be short-lived and lacking in volume. Because there are few buyers, there is little power to sustain the rise.
The BTC price chart has recently seen a significant decline, and during this decline, the ratio reached new lows. This is because there is no large buyer base, no new capital, and little idle cash in the market. In this environment, it is difficult for the price to rise and easier to fall.
The scarcity of stablecoins creates a liquidity gap. This gap, if selling pressure arises, accelerates declines because there are no buyers to cover them. This chart fully supports this.
The lack of buyers makes it difficult to form a stable bottom. A bottom requires demand, purchasing power, and cash on hand. As the chart shows, none of these conditions are met in the current chart.
When the Stablecoin Ratio is low, the market's capacity to recover from the bottom is limited. Therefore,
supports continue to break more easily. Price recoveries are weak.
This low Stablecoin Ratio indicates a significant lack of dollar liquidity in the market. This weakens BTC's upward momentum. If severe selling pressure occurs, the price risks falling to $72,000.
Whales can easily move the price due to low liquidity. Small sell-offs can lead to large bottoms.
For this chart to turn positive, new capital inflow is required. There is currently no reversal signal. I believe this chart is evidence of a bearish season. $BTC
I think Ethereum could rise to $3324 and then fall. This could be a breakout opportunity for us.
I think we're in a period where most altcoins will be tied to their demise. Choosing solid altcoins is both challenging and crucial. As for spot buying, I don't think this is the right time. #Ethereum $ETH
I think we're in a period where most altcoins will be tied to their demise. Choosing solid altcoins is both challenging and crucial. As for spot buying, I don't think this is the right time. #Ethereum $ETH
Bitcoin is showing signs of a bearish season. We'll fully feel it when the $81,550 support level breaks below. In the medium to long term, I expect a decline to the $51,000-$57,000 range.
In the short term, a correction to the $90,000-$102,000 range is possible. #bitcoin $BTC
In the short term, a correction to the $90,000-$102,000 range is possible. #bitcoin $BTC
Weakening Ethereum Staking Flow Pressures Price
Staking Inflow indicates that investors are withdrawing their ETH holdings from exchanges for staking. This movement generally creates a supply shortage, which tends to be supportive for the price.
After a long period of stable and moderate inflows, the chart shows a massive vertical spike in October. This spike, significantly exceeding all previous inflows, indicates an unusual increase in demand. This Staking Inflow coincides with the peak period for the $ETH price. This spike occurred when the price was in a sharp decline. In other words, when the price fell, staking investors managed to push the price up.
In November, the price dropped sharply from $4K to $2.7K. During this period, Staking Inflow also dropped to around $80K. This decline in Staking Inflow indicates that the price has not yet entered a recovery phase.
Investors still consider Ethereum, currently at $2800, expensive for staking. This could push the price to $2500.
Staking Inflow indicates that investors are withdrawing their ETH holdings from exchanges for staking. This movement generally creates a supply shortage, which tends to be supportive for the price.
After a long period of stable and moderate inflows, the chart shows a massive vertical spike in October. This spike, significantly exceeding all previous inflows, indicates an unusual increase in demand. This Staking Inflow coincides with the peak period for the $ETH price. This spike occurred when the price was in a sharp decline. In other words, when the price fell, staking investors managed to push the price up.
In November, the price dropped sharply from $4K to $2.7K. During this period, Staking Inflow also dropped to around $80K. This decline in Staking Inflow indicates that the price has not yet entered a recovery phase.
Investors still consider Ethereum, currently at $2800, expensive for staking. This could push the price to $2500.
Bitcoin dominansı düşüşe devam ediyor ancak #bitcoin 'den çıkan para artık #altcoin lere akmıyor. Sadece her gün belli başlı coinler bellli bir oranda yükseliş gösteriyor. Bu da genelde topluluğu olan, balina girişleri olan coinler oluyor.
Dominansın düşüşü %57 lere kadar devam edebilir ancak Dominans düşüşü artık Altcoin tarafında yükseliş etkisi yaratmadığı için sadece takip etmiş oluyoruz. Berbat bir Boğa Sezonu geçirdik gerçekten. Tüm sistemler değişti. $BTC
Dominansın düşüşü %57 lere kadar devam edebilir ancak Dominans düşüşü artık Altcoin tarafında yükseliş etkisi yaratmadığı için sadece takip etmiş oluyoruz. Berbat bir Boğa Sezonu geçirdik gerçekten. Tüm sistemler değişti. $BTC
At the same time, the BTC price has also shown a steep decline from around $120K to $81K. The miners' aggressive outbursts seem to have significantly increased selling pressure on the market. However, this situation refers to the period near the bottom when miners are under stress. Miners normally do not want to sell when the price drops because their profitability decreases. If Netflow is negative, and if it is constantly and increasingly, miners may be selling to cover their costs. $BTC
Supply Ratio’nun aşağı gitmesi, genellikle coin’ler borsadan çekilmesi anlamına gelir. Bu da satış baskısının düştüğünü gösterir. Borsadaki likidite azalır fiyat yukarı yönlü hareketlere karşı daha hassas hale gelir. Yani küçük bir talep bile fiyatı daha kolay yukarı taşıyabilir. Bu nedenle düşen Exchange Supply Ratio çoğunlukla fiyat için destekleyici bir zemin yaratır.
Supply Ratio sert düşüş dönemlerinde fiyatın genelde yukarı yönlü tepkiler verdiği görülüyor. Bu oran sabit kaldığında ise fiyat daha yatay veya kararsız eğilimlere girme eğiliminde. Yani metrik, fiyat performansını direkt tetiklemese de, satış tarafındaki baskının azalması nedeniyle fiyat için daha olumlu bir zemin hazırlıyor.
Güncel durumda Supply Ratio’nun uzun zamandır alçalan bir trendde olduğunu görüyoruz.Bu güncel görünümden şu çıkarımları yapabiliriz:
Borsadaki AAVE arzı düşük yani satış baskısı sınırlı. Arz sıkıştığı için fiyat aşağıdaki seviyelerde daha dirençli davranabilir.
Eğer talep tarafında küçük bile bir artış gelirse, fiyat yukarı yönlü daha hızlı tepki verebilir. Ancak burada önemli bir nokta şu,
Supply Ratio’nun düşmesi tek başına fiyatı yükseltmez; sadece yukarı yönlü hareketler için uygun şartları oluşturur. Talep gelmezse fiyat yine zayıf kalabilir. Bu durumda fiyatın yeni zirvelere koşmak için daha fazla talebe ihtiyacı var. Azalan arz varken yeterli talep gelirse ancak o zaman fiyat yeniden 400$ seviyelerine çıkabilir. $AAVE
Supply Ratio sert düşüş dönemlerinde fiyatın genelde yukarı yönlü tepkiler verdiği görülüyor. Bu oran sabit kaldığında ise fiyat daha yatay veya kararsız eğilimlere girme eğiliminde. Yani metrik, fiyat performansını direkt tetiklemese de, satış tarafındaki baskının azalması nedeniyle fiyat için daha olumlu bir zemin hazırlıyor.
Güncel durumda Supply Ratio’nun uzun zamandır alçalan bir trendde olduğunu görüyoruz.Bu güncel görünümden şu çıkarımları yapabiliriz:
Borsadaki AAVE arzı düşük yani satış baskısı sınırlı. Arz sıkıştığı için fiyat aşağıdaki seviyelerde daha dirençli davranabilir.
Eğer talep tarafında küçük bile bir artış gelirse, fiyat yukarı yönlü daha hızlı tepki verebilir. Ancak burada önemli bir nokta şu,
Supply Ratio’nun düşmesi tek başına fiyatı yükseltmez; sadece yukarı yönlü hareketler için uygun şartları oluşturur. Talep gelmezse fiyat yine zayıf kalabilir. Bu durumda fiyatın yeni zirvelere koşmak için daha fazla talebe ihtiyacı var. Azalan arz varken yeterli talep gelirse ancak o zaman fiyat yeniden 400$ seviyelerine çıkabilir. $AAVE
Bitcoin kasım 2022'den bu yana gelen yükselen trendi aşağı kırdı. Artık Ayı sezonuna girmiş bulunmaktayız. Yükselişleri Düşüşün düzeltmesi olarak düşünür ve short tepesi ararım.
Güncel seviyeden düzeltne gelirse maks. 102600$ seviyesine ilerler diye düşünmekteyim.
Burada takip etmemiz gereken önemli husus ABD FED Ekim itibariyle açıklamadığı verileri bi an evvel açıklaması. Eğer Bu veriler açıklanırsa o zam an son bir içeri alma hamlesiyle $110k seviyesine çıkarız. Bu da Spottan kaçmak için son şansımız olur muhtemelen. #Bitcoin $BTC
Güncel seviyeden düzeltne gelirse maks. 102600$ seviyesine ilerler diye düşünmekteyim.
Burada takip etmemiz gereken önemli husus ABD FED Ekim itibariyle açıklamadığı verileri bi an evvel açıklaması. Eğer Bu veriler açıklanırsa o zam an son bir içeri alma hamlesiyle $110k seviyesine çıkarız. Bu da Spottan kaçmak için son şansımız olur muhtemelen. #Bitcoin $BTC
Ethereum için 3324$ yükselişin sürmesi için korunması gereken önemli destekti ama yıkıldı.
Şimdi 2955$ 2500$ ve 1760$ önündeki destekler. Açıkladığım Fed hamlesine göre pozisyon alacağım $ETH #Ethereum
Şimdi 2955$ 2500$ ve 1760$ önündeki destekler. Açıkladığım Fed hamlesine göre pozisyon alacağım $ETH #Ethereum
Login to explore more contents