CryptoGhost

These are the upcoming crypto events that may impact crypto the most:

December 10 FOMC Rate Decision – Fed’s potential 25bps rate cut could boost crypto liquidity.
Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade (Dec 3) – Scalability improvements may drive ETH demand.
MiCA Transitional Regime Expiry (Dec 31) – EU compliance deadline may trigger market adjustments.
MSCI Crypto Treasuries Ruling (Jan 15, 2026) – Reclassification risk for Bitcoin-heavy firms.
SEC Crypto ETF Deadline (Mar 27, 2026) – Final verdict on 91 pending ETFs, including altcoins.

Deep Dive

1. December 10 FOMC Rate Decision

Overview: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps on December 10. Markets currently price in an 80% chance of a cut, per CME FedWatch. A dovish pivot could weaken the dollar and boost risk assets like crypto.
What this means: Lower rates typically increase liquidity, benefiting Bitcoin ($87,692 as of Nov 25) and altcoins. However, a hawkish surprise could reverse recent gains.
(Forbes)

2. Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade (Dec 3)

Overview: Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade launches December 3, introducing PeerDAS to reduce validator costs and improve scalability. This follows successful testnet trials.
What this means: Lower fees and enhanced efficiency could strengthen ETH’s position against competitors like Solana. ETH ETF inflows ($96.67M on Nov 24) suggest institutional anticipation.
(CoinDesk)

3. MiCA Transitional Regime Expiry (Dec 31)

Overview: Spain will enforce full EU MiCA compliance by December 31, six months ahead of schedule. All crypto service providers must meet strict custody, reporting, and licensing rules.
What this means: Short-term volatility as non-compliant EU platforms adjust. Long-term, clearer regulations may attract institutional capital.
(Cointelegraph)

4. MSCI Crypto Treasuries Ruling (Jan 15, 2026)

Overview: MSCI will decide if crypto-heavy firms like MicroStrategy qualify as “companies” or “funds.” A “fund” classification could force index-trackers to divest.
What this means: Over $10B in passive funds could sell Bitcoin holdings if reclassified, pressuring BTC prices. MicroStrategy holds ~69,000 BTC ($5.8B).
(NewsBTC)

5. SEC Crypto ETF Deadline (Mar 27, 2026)

Overview: The SEC must rule on 91 crypto ETF applications, including altcoins like XRP and Solana, by March 27. Analysts expect approvals under new streamlined rules.
What this means: Approval could unlock billions in institutional inflows, mirroring Bitcoin ETF impacts ($100B+ AUM since 2024). Rejections may stall altcoin momentum.
(The Defiant)

Conclusion

The December 10 Fed decision is the near-term linchpin – watch CME FedWatch probabilities and BTC’s reaction to $90K. Longer-term, the MSCI ruling poses asymmetric risk: a negative outcome could erase $1B+ daily BTC demand from ETFs. Monitor MicroStrategy’s stock (MSTR) as a proxy for institutional Bitcoin exposure. Bullish catalysts outweigh bearish risks, but leverage remains high (open interest at $821B), amplifying volatility.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#ProjectCrypto #BinanceAlphaAlert

The crypto market fell 1.73% over the last 24h, extending its 30-day decline (-18.62%) despite a 6.32% weekly gain.

Main factors:

Macro Correlation Shift – Crypto decoupled from equities (QQQ -0.67 correlation) amid weekend liquidity lulls.
Fear Sentiment Persists – Fear & Greed Index stuck at 20 ("Fear"), suppressing risk appetite.
Regulatory Uncertainty – Trump-linked crypto empire lawsuit (House Judiciary) raised compliance concerns.

Deep Dive

1. Weekend Liquidity Crunch (Bearish Impact)

Overview: Trading volume fell 10.56% to $105.8B, with derivatives activity (-8.54%) and spot markets (-7.68%) both contracting. Low weekend participation amplified volatility, while negative crypto-Nasdaq correlations (-0.67) signaled traders pricing in potential Monday equity weakness.
What it means: Thin liquidity magnified selling pressure, particularly in altcoins (others dominance -0.06% MoM).

2. Regulatory Anxiety Resurfaces (Bearish Impact)

Overview: A House Judiciary report accused Trump of leveraging crypto for personal gain, citing conflicts of interest and national security risks linked to $11.6B holdings. This followed Kalshi’s lawsuit over alleged illegal gambling (Coinspeaker).
What it means: Regulatory scrutiny fears resurfaced, chilling speculative activity. TradFi ETF outflows continued ($1.22B BTC ETF redemptions this week).

3. Ethereum Liquidity Strain (Mixed Impact)

Overview: OKX’s Ethereum reserves dropped 11,848 ETH ahead of the Fusaka upgrade (Dec 3), raising concerns about short-term demand. However, institutional accumulation continued (BlackRock added 16,629 ETH last week).
What it means: Mixed signals – upgrade optimism clashes with exchange outflow anxieties.

Conclusion

Today’s dip reflects weekend illiquidity magnifying regulatory jitters and profit-taking after a 6.32% weekly gain. With Bitcoin dominance rising (+0.05% 24h) and fear sentiment entrenched, traders are hedging ahead of Monday’s equity open. Watch Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade progress and Monday’s ETF flow data for directional cues.
$ETH $SOL $SOL
#TrumpTariffs #MarketSentimentToday