CryptoQuant Quicktake

1/2 In a bull market, when #Ethereum's open interest surpasses #BTC's, it’s a strong signal of a potential top for ETH and often the broader crypto market. The first chart illustrates this trend, highlighting the correlation between ETH's OI dominance and market peaks. We’re not there yet.

2/2 Spot retail trading frequency also spikes significantly at market cycle tops, reflecting heightened retail activity. The second chart shows this pattern, capturing the surge in trading volume during these periods. We’re still below those levels for now

Written by elcryptotavo

While the broader market navigates volatility, TRON (TRX) is demonstrating a compelling narrative of resilient price recovery coupled with a significant decline in key risk indicators.

Our latest analysis reveals that in recent months, TRON's Value at Risk (VaR) has notably decreased. This signals a lower potential for downside losses at a 95% confidence level, offering investors a more predictable risk landscape. As the chart illustrates, the recent dip in VaR alongside price recovery suggests a more fortified position against market downturns.

Simultaneously, the daily rolling Beta coefficient for TRX against BTC has also seen a remarkable reduction. A decreasing Beta indicates that TRX is becoming less sensitive and less volatile relative to Bitcoin, suggesting a more independent and stable growth trajectory. This is a powerful signal of TRX's growing maturity and potentially reduced systemic risk.

This powerful combination – price appreciation alongside reduced risk and market correlation – positions TRON as an increasingly attractive asset. It highlights a maturing ecosystem and a more robust foundation for future performance. Don't miss out on understanding the nuances of TRON's evolving market dynamics!

Written by Crazzyblockk

When a cryptocurrency shows a high correlation with Bitcoin, its market behavior tends to mirror the movements of the dominant asset. This statistical relationship—often measured using correlation coefficients such as Pearson—implies that both BTC’s rallies and corrections directly influence the price of the correlated asset.

🚀 Current Outlook in the Bull Cycle

As we are in the midst of Bitcoin’s bull cycle—which is likely to continue until October or November of this year, breaking its all-time high multiple times—a strong correlation with Bitcoin means that tokens sharing this dynamic could experience significantly assured growth. This is the case for tokens like Trx, Sui, ADA, XLM, HBAR, and Litecoin, among others, which have historically moved in sync with BTC’s behavior. (see correlation chart)

📈 Investors are particularly interested in these tokens because, having a much smaller market capitalization than BTC, they have greater potential for higher percentage gains. In practical terms, Bitcoin is unlikely to grow more than 2x from its current price, whereas highly correlated tokens could triple, quadruple, or more, simply because their smaller market caps make such expansions more feasible.

🌍 Among the standout tokens, Trx has maintained a clear upward trend for several months. Its usage is accelerating rapidly across Asia, and recently the issuance of USDT on the Tron network surpassed that of Ethereum. This is no small development: it reflects a restructuring in real network usage, and suggests that Tron could multiply significantly in value in the coming months, as it continues to move in tandem with Bitcoin’s trend.

In summary, keeping an eye on assets with strong Bitcoin correlation can offer not only strategic entry points but also amplify portfolio performance during bull phases. The smart move is staying informed and acting with precision.

Signed by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at CryptoQuant

📲 Connect with me:

♦️ X: @oro_crypto

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

Binance strengthens its dominance in spot Bitcoin volume

On January 20, 2025, Bitcoin had reached its previous peak of $109,588. On that very day, Binance led the spot market with $10.58 billion in volume, claiming a 30.05% market share. Fast forward five months, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $111,980—and Binance not only retained its top position but extended its lead.

As of today, Binance’s spot BTC market share has surged to 36.45%, solidifying its dominance.

Conclusion

The fact that such a significant portion of spot Bitcoin trading happens on Binance underscores the platform’s liquidity, reliability, and strong user trust. As Bitcoin continues to break records,

Binance remains the go-to exchange for traders worldwide.

Written by burakkesmeci

Earlier today (May 26, 2025, 14:00 UTC), 7,883 BTC in net outflows were recorded from Coinbase, with a total daily outflow of 8,742 BTC — marking it as the third-largest outflow in the past month.

As we know, except for Fidelity, all U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs source their BTC from Coinbase. A transaction of this scale strongly hints at institutional activity or an ETF-related purchase.

Historical patterns back this up: large-scale outflows from Coinbase are often followed by either ETF inflow surges or announcements from corporates like MicroStrategy declaring new BTC purchases.

This assumption is also supported by the Coinbase Premium Index, which has remained consistently positive over the past month. This implies strong buying interest from U.S.-based investors — especially institutions willing to pay a premium to get Bitcoin exposure.

📍 Conclusion:

These outflows reflect sustained demand from U.S.-based institutions. If this appetite continues, it may lay the groundwork for another leg up in Bitcoin’s price. Especially when fueled by ETF inflows, such moves can lead to sharp price breaks and new highs.

Written by burakkesmeci

Tracking UTXOs is useful to get a clearer picture of the market's current state.

— UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) are the technical mechanism that ensures a single BTC can only be spent once on the blockchain. They also allow us to assess unrealized profits on all unspent BTC. —

The critical 99% threshold, meaning 99% of BTC holdings are in profit, offers a solid indication of the extent of unrealized gains.

IIt’s a level often associated with periods of market euphoria wich constitute a very bullish signal, but requires caution.

Right now, it’s hard to say we’re in a euphoric phase.

The broader macroeconomic context and the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policy direction make it difficult for investors to flip fully risk-on.

When this 99% signal drops, unrealized profits shrink and can trigger more profit-taking and push latecomers to capitulate and sell at a loss.

Stay sharp.

Written by Darkfost

JustLend is the leading lending protocol on the Tron blockchain, which recently saw its Total Value Locked (TVL) surge by over $1.5B.

This constitute the largest increase since the beginning of 2025.

This protocol offers attractive yields in exchange for providing liquidity, primarily in TRX or USDT, which is then lent out to borrowers against collateral.

The rise in JustLend’s TVL highlights two particularly interesting dynamics :

- The protocol's yields are attracting liquidity deposits, boosting its TVL, a key metric that many investors watch to assess the health of a blockchain or project before taking any investment decision.

- It suggests an increase in borrowing activity, reflecting stronger investor engagement on the Tron blockchain, which can have a positive impact on the entire Tron ecosystem.

Naturally, we can also observe that the supply of USDT on TRC-20 continues to rise and has now even surpassed that on Ethereum’s ERC-20 network.

Written by Darkfost

In recent days, we’ve observed a significant wave of USDT minting on the TRON network. What's particularly interesting is that TRX price remains resilient during these issuances, which historically tends to correlate with increased liquidity inflows into the broader crypto market.

When large amounts of stablecoins are issued — especially on high-throughput, low-fee networks like TRON — it’s often a sign that capital is entering the ecosystem, ready to be deployed. This liquidity typically first flows into Bitcoin and major assets, and if risk appetite increases, it then rotates into Altcoins, fueling broader market rallies.

In simple terms: the market might be quietly preparing the liquidity conditions necessary for a new bullish wave — particularly for Altcoins.

💡 It’s crucial to monitor these stablecoin movements closely. Historically, spikes in stablecoin supply have preceded periods of increased volatility and price appreciation across the crypto market.

➡️ Key takeaway: Pay attention to on-chain flows. Liquidity is the fuel that drives the market — not narratives, not news.

Written by joaowedson

In recent market activity, Bitcoin experienced two significant long liquidation events on Binance, triggered immediately after BTC’s price sharply fell below the psychological $111,000 level

The liquidation cascade began immediately after Bitcoin broke below the $111,000 support level, with the price declining rapidly to under $109,000. This represented a drop of approximately 1.8% within a short timeframe, sufficient to trigger margin calls for over-leveraged long positions.

💹 First Event: $110K long Liquidation Cluster

As shown in the liquidation delta chart, the first major liquidation spike near $110.9K wiped out over $97 million in long positions.

💹 Second Event: $109K Long Liquidation Cluster

Following the initial long squeeze at $110.9K, Bitcoin’s decline accelerated as price breached the $109K support level, triggering a second liquidation wave that wiped out over $88 million in long positions within hours.

🔍 Long-Term Holders (LTH) Activity During Bitcoin's Liquidation Events:

While short-term traders faced brutal liquidations, long-term holders (LTH) were showing a very different behavior. According to the STH/LTH Net Position Realized Cap chart, the LTH realized cap has now surged past $28 billion — a level not seen since April.

Conclusion: The LTH Advantage

While overleveraged short-term traders were flushed out as Bitcoin’s price dropped below $111,000 and $109,000, long-term holders (LTH) have been quietly capitalizing on the reset.

With the LTH realized cap now surpassing $28 billion, it’s clear that long-term investors are using this period of forced selling to increase their exposure and accumulate more Bitcoin for the long run.

This strategic accumulation during moments of market stress reflects the deep conviction of LTHs. Rather than being shaken out by short-term volatility, they see these liquidation-driven dips as prime opportunities to strengthen their positions — reinforcing the foundation for future price appreciation.

Written by Amr Taha

Total Value Locked (TVL) represents the total amount of funds locked in a protocol. In TRON’s case, especially within lending platforms, this metric offers deep insight into market confidence and capital flow. There’s a clear relationship between TVL and the price of TRX:

📈 When TVL rises, TRX often follows.

📉 When TVL drops, so does the price.

📊 What Does Rising TVL Mean?

Periods of increasing TVL typically reflect growing confidence in the ecosystem. Users are:

Satisfied with lending yields,

Expecting higher returns,

Locking in more capital.

This inflow boosts on-chain liquidity and increases available collateral for leveraged long positions — creating a positive feedback loop that supports higher prices.

🔻 What Happens When TVL Falls?

A falling TVL indicates capital outflow and rising risk aversion. Reasons include:

Volatility expectations,

Regulatory uncertainty,

Better opportunities elsewhere.

As liquidity dries up, TRX price faces downward pressure. Investors may exit positions, sensing reduced profitability or systemic vulnerability.

🧠 Greed vs. Fear: Behavioral Signals in TVL

When TVL surges rapidly, it's not just confidence — greed can take over. Yield chasers lock more funds out of FOMO, pushing TVL and prices higher. Ironically, these euphoric inflows often mark local tops, signaling a looming correction.

🧩 Bottom Line:

TVL is more than a liquidity gauge — it's a window into market psychology.

🔼 Rising TVL = Confidence + Yield appetite → Bullish for TRX

🔽 Falling TVL = Fear + Risk aversion → Bearish for TRX

🚨 But beware: Extreme TVL spikes can indicate market overheating. What seems like strength might be the calm before the reversal.

Written by BorisVest

We are facing a classic yet powerful pattern in Bitcoin: the Double Bottom. This formation is one of the strongest reversal signals, indicating that bearish pressure is weakening and buyers are beginning to regain control.

🔍 Technical Overview:

Bottom 1: 106,800 USDT (May 23)

Bottom 2: 106,600 USDT (May 25)

Neckline: 109,000 USDT

Breakout Level: Successfully broken and holding above it.

Pattern Price Target: 112K

🚀 The price is currently hovering around $109,400, and the pattern has officially been activated. The breakout came with strong volume, signaling increased bullish momentum. If this zone holds as support, levels above $112,000 are well within reach.

🧠 “Double bottoms are where the market says: ‘We’ve sold enough.’ When buyers defend the second bottom, it sends a message: Now it’s our turn. But remember, not every pattern plays out. Know your risk, make your decision.”

⚠️ Remember: Patterns are like maps — they show you the way, but you're the one driving. Those who move with patience, discipline, and a plan will be the winners.

Written by ibrahimcosar

Since the pandemic, whenever Ethereum reached local tops, we’ve seen retail trading frequency spike hard. That pattern was loud and clear during the 2021 bull run — high retail activity usually came right around price peaks.

But this cycle?

A different story. While Bitcoin surged from 16K to over 111K, Ethereum hasn’t delivered that classic altcoin outperformance. There was a flicker of retail interest around December 2024 (see the green dots), but just as it was picking up, Trump’s tariff drama hit the markets.

Risk appetite dropped, and retail trading frequency on Ethereum followed.

Conclusion:

Retail hasn’t entered the arena yet. And when retail is missing, you know what that means — the rally might still be in its early innings. There could be unpriced upside hiding in ETH.

Written by burakkesmeci

While $BTC grinds higher, exchange netflows remain negative — coins consistently leaving exchanges.

Yet the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is back under 1.0 — showing more aggressive sellers than buyers in recent days.

📊 This divergence is telling:

Retail is de-risking.

Whales are quietly accumulating.

No panic spikes in inflows → no major distribution yet.

If sell pressure keeps rising but price holds, expect a short squeeze setup.

This is the kind of stealth accumulation that fueled past expansions.

Onchain Edge Bias: Accumulation under pressure bullish continuation likely.

Written by Onchain Edge

The market is showing early signs of a potential downside reversal, as key derivatives metrics weaken in tandem.

🔻 Decline in Taker Activity: Across centralized exchanges (CEXs), both taker buy and taker short volumes have dropped significantly. This indicates a cooling in market order aggressiveness on both sides, often a precursor to reduced short-term momentum and increased uncertainty.

📉 Bearish Shift in Buy/Sell Ratio:

1) 30-day change: -29.3%

2) 7-day change: -34.7%

The sharp decline in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio confirms a retreat in bullish conviction, suggesting sellers are beginning to dominate spot order flow.

⚠️ Ratio Trend and Volatility Spike:

The 7-day moving average of the Buy/Sell Ratio has now declined to 1.2, and appears to be heading toward the critical 1.0 threshold. Simultaneously, 7-day price volatility is spiking, a typical signal of market inflection zones.

📌 Implication:

Current data points to a turning point in market sentiment. With buyer exhaustion growing and volatility accelerating, the likelihood of a short-term correction increases. Price action may test support near the 105K level, if bearish pressure intensifies.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Ethereum continues to hover below a critical resistance range, keeping investors on edge about the likelihood of a bullish breakout. While price action alone has provided mixed signals, insights from the futures market shed light on underlying sentiment shifts that could shape Ethereum’s next major move.

One of the most telling indicators is the ETH Taker Buy-Sell Ratio, which measures whether aggressive market orders are dominated by buyers or sellers. Aggressive orders — those executed at market price — typically reflect urgency and strong conviction from market participants.

Recently, the 14-day moving average of this ratio has seen a notable decline, pointing to increased aggressive selling activity. This trend suggests that bears are regaining control, triggering a wave of profit-taking and distribution as Ethereum struggles near resistance.

If the selling pressure persists and the ratio continues trending downward, Ethereum could undergo a deeper correction, with the $2.2K support emerging as a likely target. However, if this aggressive selling is primarily driven by short-term players or "weak hands," it could represent a healthy consolidation phase before a broader bullish breakout resumes.

In short, Ethereum’s next direction hinges on whether the current selling momentum intensifies — or exhausts — in the face of growing mid-term demand.

Written by ShayanMarkets

Futures volumes on Binance are rising, while spot volumes have dropped significantly in recent days, even as BTC entered price discovery.

Volume analysis provides key insights into market dynamics. It not only helps reassess demand but also characterizes its nature.

Demand originating from derivatives markets versus spot markets offers very different signals about investor behavior and the potential market impact.

Today, we can observe that futures activity on Binance has increased slightly since May 5, while spot market volumes have clearly declined.

Whereas spot market buying suggests that investors are positioning themselves with a longer-term perspective, futures trades are mostly short-term bets that can introduce additional volatility, especially when they're not backed by strong spot demand to support the trend.

This increase in risk-taking on the market makes the trend more fragile and calls for heightened caution before making investment decisions.

Written by Darkfost

Yesterday, Ethereum (ETH) crossed the critical $2,700 price level, triggering a major Binance ETH short liquidation event.

The liquidation event occurred as Ethereum breached the critical $2,700 resistance level, which had been a concentration point for short positions.

ETH’s Breakthrough & Short Liquidation (Binance Liquidation Delta):

As illustrated in the liquidation delta chart, the liquidation spike near $2700 eliminated over $50 million in short positions, triggering a cascade of stop-loss orders on these positions.

The liquidation heatmap identifies the $2700 zone as a high-liquidity cluster, confirming it was a prime target for liquidation runs.

Rising Derivatives Exchange Reserves:

shortly after this sharp move, more than 144,000 ETH flowed into derivatives exchanges.

The inflow of ETH to derivative exchanges typically signifies that traders are preparing to initiate or expand short positions.

Whale Activity :

The Whales Screener reveals significant market movements.

* Over $580 million in Bitcoin netflow from whale wallets

* More than $470 million in Ethereum netflow from whale wallets

Final Thoughts:

Traders and investors should remain vigilant: rising exchange reserves can act as both fuel for new short positioning.

At the same time, whales are taking chips off the table, which could hint at a short-term peak forming.

Written by Amr Taha

Correlation is a statistical measure of the relationship between two variables. In financial analysis, it helps determine whether two assets tend to move in the same direction (positive correlation), in opposite directions (negative correlation), or independently (near zero).

Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum have maintained a strong positive correlation, typically above 0.7, indicating that most of Bitcoin’s movements were mirrored by Ethereum, reinforcing their tight connection over time.

Since early January, however, a decoupling has occurred, as shown by the BTC-Alts Correlation Matrix (Yearly). On January 1st, the correlation was 0.63, dropping steadily to 0.05 by May 22, 2025, signaling a major divergence.

What does this mean? This shift breaks one of the crypto market’s most consistent patterns, prompting a reevaluation of strategies based on Bitcoin-Ethereum alignment. It also adds uncertainty for investors, who can no longer expect ETH to follow BTC. Portfolio models, risk strategies, and return forecasts must now adapt. This may also reflect how Ethereum is becoming driven by its own internal factors—like protocol upgrades, regulation, or DeFi—indicating growing independence.

One effect of this divergence: Ether and related assets risk missing out on bull markets. This is evident in 2025—Bitcoin has climbed, while Ethereum has often stalled or declined, along with L2s like Optimism (OP), Polygon (POL), zkSync, Starknet (STRK), and Arbitrum (ARB).

Conclusion: This break could be harmful not only to ETH investors, but also to the overall Ethereum ecosystem. As the second-largest crypto, Ethereum’s failure to meet expectations may discourage retail investors and delay mass adoption.

Written by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at Cryptoquant

📲 Connect with me:

♦️ X: @oro_crypto♦️ YouTube: OroCryptoCanal♦️ Email: [email protected]

For collaborations, questions, or feedback—feel free to reach out.

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

Between April and May, this metric generated several Short Squeeze signals, highlighting moments of extreme pressure against short sellers. The result? A wave of short liquidations that fueled strong upward price movements.

Currently, the indicator shows a more balanced scenario, with no visible Short Squeeze signals at the moment, suggesting reduced pressure from short positions.

🔍 This metric helps monitor when traders holding short positions may be forced to close, often triggering sharp price moves.

Stay alert!

Written by joaowedson

While Bitcoin recently set a new All-Time High (ATH) in price, its MVRV ratio hasn't hit the peaks seen in past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021). Previously, MVRV also peaked with prices, often exceeding 3.5-4, signifying high unrealized profit. This current disparity, where a price ATH doesn't coincide with an MVRV peak, can be explained by the tremendous rise in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap.

The MVRV ratio is Market Cap divided by Realized Cap. A significantly higher Realized Cap (the denominator) naturally lowers the MVRV ratio, even if Market Cap (the numerator) is at an ATH. This increased Realized Cap means more coins have moved and their cost basis reset at higher prices in this upcycle. In other words, the network's aggregate cost basis is now considerably higher than during previous ATHs. This suggests the current market situation is different: perhaps more coins are in stronger hands at these higher valuations, or the "froth" or overvaluation typical of past MVRV peaks hasn't occurred to the same degree. It might also indicate that significant profit-taking has been absorbed by new capital at these elevated prices, pushing the network's Realized Cap higher.

Written by BilalHuseynov