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Despite low sentiment and falling prices, Bitwise’s André Dragosch says bitcoin is trading as if a recession is imminent, while macro growth expectations are already improving.
Bitwise’s Dragosch says bitcoin is pricing in a worse macro outlook than during the FTX collapse or 2020 Covid shock.
The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 20, well above this month’s extreme low of 10, despite bitcoin hovering near $90K.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets assign an 86.4% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, supporting hopes for recovery.
Bitcoin $BTC may be acting like a recession is imminent even if the macroeconomic data suggests otherwise.
In an X post on Friday, André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, said that bitcoin is currently pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since the 2022 Federal Reserve tightening cycle and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Drawing on macro survey data from sources such as Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, Dragosch produced a chart comparing global growth expectations to the macroeconomic signals embedded in bitcoin’s price.
The chart shows a sharp divergence: the black line representing bitcoin’s implied growth outlook has plunged below -1 standard deviation, significantly more pessimistic than the survey-based macro indicator, which remains around neutral. According to Dragosch, this setup resembles past dislocations like March 2020 and November 2022, just before bitcoin staged outsized rallies.
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” he wrote, calling the current risk-reward setup asymmetric. “You’re not even remotely bullish enough,” he added, suggesting a recovery could resemble the sixfold rally seen after the March 2020 Covid shock.
However, sentiment remains fragile.
The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index held steady at 20 (“Fear”) on Saturday, matching yesterday’s level and slightly above the year-to-date low of 10, last seen on Nov. 22. For comparison, the index sat at 39 (“Fear”) one month ago, and hit a high of 84 (“Extreme Greed”) in late November 2024.
Bitcoin traded at $90,559 as of 11:30 a.m. UTC on Nov. 29, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Year-to-date, the cryptocurrency is down 3% and 28% from its all-time high of $126,080, reached on Oct. 6.
Meanwhile, macro expectations may be shifting.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows traders assigning an 86.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.5%-3.75% range at the central bank’s December policy meeting.
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The emergence of "Digital Asset Treasury Companies" marks a critical inflection point in finance, offering financial advisors (FAs) and their clients indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin $BTC through a traditional equity structure. However, these vehicles—often publicly traded companies holding significant digital assets—require intense due diligence. Are they a legitimate asset class or simply highly leveraged hype?
For advisors to effectively counsel their clients, a deep dive into the underlying risks, premium mechanics, use of leverage, and regulatory standing is essential.
⚖️ Hype vs. Real Value: Defining the Digital Treasury
A Digital Asset Treasury Company (DATC) is a publicly listed business whose primary corporate reserve asset is a cryptocurrency, typically Bitcoin. Investors buy the company's stock, gaining exposure to the underlying crypto without having to directly custody or manage the assets themselves.

The real value lies in providing a bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and digital assets, while the "hype" often glosses over the significant, structural risks inherent in this model.
⚠️ Key Risks Advisors Must Evaluate
Advisors must ensure clients understand that owning stock in a DATC is not the same as owning an investment vehicle like a Bitcoin ETF.
1. Premium/Discount to NAV Risk
The single most unique risk to DATCs is the Premium or Discount to Net Asset Value (NAV).
​NAV: This is the underlying market value of the company's net crypto holdings (e.g., total BTC held minus liabilities).​Premium/Discount: DATC stock prices are subject to market sentiment, often trading at a premium (price > NAV) when crypto hype is high, or a discount (price < NAV) when sentiment is negative.Advisors must ask: Is the current share price worth the difference between the stock price and the underlying asset value? Purchasing a stock at a 30% premium to its NAV means the client is immediately overpaying for the digital asset exposure.
2. Leverage Risk
​DATCs often employ leveraged strategies to acquire their digital assets, which amplifies returns but also magnifies losses.
​How it Works: Companies may issue convertible debt or take out loans, often collateralized by their existing crypto holdings, to buy more crypto.The Danger: If the price of the collateralized asset (e.g., Bitcoin) drops significantly, the company could face a margin call and be forced to sell a large portion of its holdings at a loss to satisfy its debt. This poses extreme downside risk for the company's stock price, potentially beyond the direct drop of the crypto itself.
​3. Custodial & Counterparty Risk
​A DATC must use a custodian to hold its digital assets. The integrity of this custodian is paramount.
​Custody Risk: If the custodian is not a regulated entity or suffers a security breach or insolvency event, the company’s assets could be compromised or become entangled in bankruptcy proceedings.​Counterparty Risk: This involves the risks associated with the lenders, trading platforms, and other financial partners the DATC uses.
​4. Regulatory & Index Risk
​The regulatory environment is constantly shifting.
​Accounting: Many jurisdictions still require crypto assets to be recorded at the lower of cost or market value, which can lead to frequent, non-cash impairment losses on the company’s balance sheet during market dips, affecting stock performance.​Index Exclusion: Major financial indexes (like MSCI or S&P) may propose or enact rules to exclude companies whose primary function is digital asset treasury management. Exclusion from a major index can trigger billions in forced outflows from institutional funds, causing a severe and immediate drop in the DATC's stock price.
​📋 Advisor Due Diligence Checklist
​When evaluating any digital asset treasury company for a client, FAs must prioritize transparency and compliance.
Transparency of Holdings: Does the company provide real-time or frequent updates on its exact crypto holdings, liabilities, and debt covenants?​Custodian Quality: Who is the custodian? Is it a qualified, regulated institution (e.g., a federally chartered trust company or bank)? What insurance and security protocols are in place?Use of Leverage: How much debt does the company have relative to its assets? What are the liquidation thresholds on their loans? This is the most crucial metric for downside risk.​Regulatory Status: Is the company in compliance with all relevant securities regulations? Does it face any active litigation or regulatory scrutiny that could jeopardize its operation?​Operating Business: Does the company have a viable primary business outside of its treasury? Or is the treasury strategy its only business? A dedicated operating business provides a potential buffer against pure crypto market volatility.
​Digital Asset Treasuries offer an accessible path for clients to gain digital asset exposure, but they are intrinsically higher-risk than direct crypto ownership or spot ETFs. The savvy advisor must see past the hype and evaluate these companies based on their balance sheet integrity, leverage limits, and adherence to evolving regulatory standards.
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The expansion adds 56 MW at Barber Lake and secures $830 million in contracted revenue, reinforced by increased Google backing.
Cipher signed a new 10 year HPC hosting agreement with Fluidstack that adds 56 MW of additional capacity at the Barber Lake site, bringing Fluidstack’s lease to the full 300 MW as Cipher delivers 39 MW of new critical IT load.
Google increased its backstop of Fluidstack’s obligations by $333 million with project costs of $9 to $10 million per MW.
Already up strongly on the back of Nvidia's large earnings beat and strong guidance Wednesday evening, CIFR added to those gains, now higher by 13%.
Cipher Mining (CIFR) announced a new 10 year HPC hosting agreement with Fluidstack that adds 56 MW of additional capacity at its Barber Lake site in Texas. The deal secures about $830 million in contracted revenue over the initial term and expands Fluidstack’s lease to the full 300 MW available at the site.
With two optional five year extensions, the agreement’s value could rise to about $2.0 billion for this expansion and roughly $9.0 billion across the broader partnership.
Cipher will deliver 39 MW of additional critical IT load, supported by 56 MW of gross capacity. Google increased its backstop of Fluidstack’s lease obligations by $333 million, bringing its total support to $1.73 billion. Cipher plans to fund the buildout through project related debt and about $118 million in additional equity contributions.
The company expects strong financial performance from the Barber Lake site, forecasting a net operating income margin of 85 to 90% and project costs of $9 to $10 million per MW. Cipher says the expansion strengthens its position in high performance computing and supports its growing 3.2 GW development pipeline.
Shares of Cipher Mining were already higher by more than 10% following strong results and outlook from AI-bellwether Nvidia Wednesday evening. This latest news has pushed those gains to 13%.
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