🔍 After a sharp -7.8% correction, Bitcoin (BTC) is back in the spotlight. The leading crypto asset recently reclaimed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) — a level historically tied to rally continuations — just as it completes a retest of a textbook inverted head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern.
Meanwhile, seasoned on-chain observers are paying attention to what appears to be the final shakeout of the cycle, coinciding with historical patterns of whale profit-taking and subsequent accumulation waves. With macro tailwinds building into Q4, October 2025 may represent a crucial inflexion point for Bitcoin’s next move toward $148,250 — or deeper consolidation.
Let’s break down the setup from all angles.

📉 Technical Setup
🟢 50-Day EMA Reclaim
Bitcoin’s price briefly lost and then reclaimed the 50-day EMA, historically a dynamic support level during bull runs. The EMA reclaim signals trend resilience and often precedes a continuation move, especially when combined with volume confirmation and bullish price structure.
Current 50-day EMA: Acting as support
Signal: Bullish — potential for continuation move
📐 Inverted Head and Shoulders (IH&S)
The inverted head-and-shoulders is among the most reliable reversal patterns in classical technical analysis. The current BTC setup features:
Left shoulder: May low near $106K
Head: June bottom around $98K
Right shoulder: July low around $110K
Neckline: ~$118K–$120K (broken and retested)
Measured move target: $148,250
This neckline retest (just completed) validates the structure and suggests BTC could be entering the continuation phase of the breakout.

🔗 On-Chain Signals
Whale behaviour has followed a clear rhythm during this cycle — major selloffs followed by multi-week consolidation and then bullish breakout rallies.
🐋 Whale Profit-Taking Waves:
March 2024: Post U.S. spot ETF approval
November 2024: After Trump’s re-election
July 2025: 80,000 BTC selloff triggered post-$120K breakout
Each event was followed by a cooling period lasting 2–4 months, historically leading to price consolidation and reaccumulation, not collapse.
Exchange inflows: Spike and recede pattern (indicates unloading then pause)
Supply held by long-term holders: Increasing post-selloff
MVRV ratio: Cooling off, resetting for another leg up

📅 Historical Context
Looking at prior cycles (2016–2017, 2020–2021), the post-halving second year typically delivers parabolic upside once technical consolidation phases are complete.
Similar phases include:
June–August 2020: Sideways action post-COVID rally → breakout to $20K+
May–July 2021: -50% correction → recovery and ATH at $69K
Now (July–Sept 2025): ~8% correction, consolidating after $120K breakout
October has historically been Bitcoin’s best-performing month, and many analysts expect Q4 2025 to mimic the Q4 2021 breakout.

🚀 Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case (Base Scenario)
Neckline holds as support (~$118K)
Continuation move confirms IH&S
Breakout toward $148,250, possibly peaking in October–November
📈 Trigger Signal: Higher high + RSI breakout from current neutral zone (now ~50)
❌ Bearish Case (Risk Scenario)
Price breaks back below the neckline (~$118K)
Next support: $112K, followed by $110K–$106K range
If $106K fails, it invalidates the bullish pattern and reopens deeper correction risk
📉 Trigger Signal: Breakdown below $110K with rising volume and rejection at EMA levels

⏳ Timeline Outlook
October 2025 appears to be the market’s critical timing window due to:
IH&S pattern maturity
Completion of the whale distribution phase
Historical seasonality for BTC
Macro calendar alignment (Post-halving cycle and U.S. fiscal Q4)
Consolidation over the next 6–8 weeks could create the ideal volatility contraction → expansion setup.

🧭 Strategic Takeaways
For Short-Term Traders
Entry range: $116K–$120K on confirmed support
Target: $138K–$148K
Invalidation: Breakdown below $110K
For Long-Term HODLers
Accumulation Zones: $106K–$112K
Cycle target (2025–2026): $150K+
Strategy: Hold through volatility if IH&S remains valid
Risk Management
Watch EMA crossovers
Monitor exchange inflow spikes
Set invalidation points to avoid riding deep corrections

✅ Final Thoughts
Bitcoin's technical structure is aligning for a major continuation rally, supported by reclaimed moving averages, a bullish reversal pattern, and cyclical whale behaviour suggesting the final shakeout may be complete.
The market now enters a decision zone: hold above $118K and break out to $148K+ — or fail and slide toward the low $100Ks.
Either way, October 2025 is shaping up to be Bitcoin’s next big moment. Get positioned wisely.

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