Key Takeaways:

ETH price has surged 56.5% in 30 days, but derivatives data shows weak bullish conviction.

Ethereum’s TVL fell 11%, while Solana and BNB Chain gain ground.

Despite strong ETF inflows, ETH struggles to break $4,000, raising doubts about its short-term upside.

Ethereum (ETH) is showing signs of bullish exhaustion despite a sharp 56.5% rally over the past month. Onchain and derivatives data indicate traders remain cautious, casting doubt on whether ETH can decisively reclaim the $4,000 level.

Derivatives Market Cools as ETH Nears $4K

The annualized funding rate for Ether perpetual futures slipped back to 9% on Thursday, compared to 19% between Friday and Monday, signaling that demand for leveraged long positions is fading.

Surprisingly, funding rates have returned to July 7 levels, when ETH traded around $2,600 — even though ETH is now 46% higher.

Meanwhile, ETH futures premiums have stayed in a neutral range for three weeks, with annualized rates dipping from 8% on Tuesday to 6% today, showing muted bullish appetite despite steady ETF inflows.

Ethereum TVL Drops, Competitors Close the Gap

Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) fell 11% in 30 days, sliding to a five-month low of 23.4M ETH.

By comparison:

Solana TVL dropped just 4% in SOL terms.

BNB Chain deposits rose 15% in BNB terms.

Ethereum also lost its DEX dominance, processing $81.4B in volume over the past month, compared to $82.9B on Solana and $189.2B on BNB Chain, according to DefiLlama.

Network activity is critical: transaction fees fund validators and incentivize dApp builders. If Ethereum’s base layer stagnates, rivals could continue stealing share.

Corporate ETH Buying Slows — But Could It Restart?

Nine publicly listed firms — including Bitmine Immersion Tech (BMNR), SharpLink Gaming (SBET), and The Ether Machine (DYNX) — now hold at least 2,000 ETH each, per Strategicreserve.xyz.

Corporate buying helped fuel ETH’s recent price surge, but inflows have cooled. If institutions resume aggressive accumulation, ETH could break $4,000 and even push toward $5,000.

Why Traders Are Skeptical of $4K

Despite three weeks of positive ETF inflows, ETH traders remain unconvinced. Competitive pressure from Solana and BNB Chain, plus stagnant network activity, has made ETH’s $4K breakout an uphill battle.

Until derivatives demand strengthens and onchain activity rebounds, ETH may remain rangebound, leaving traders questioning how soon the long-anticipated breakout can arrive.