IBCI (Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators) has reached the Distribution zone - a range historically associated with euphoria and possible market tops - for the third time in this Bitcoin bull cycle.
However, the index only touched the lower base of this zone, reaching the 80% mark, still a far way from the 100% that signaled major tops in previous BTC cycles.
This reading reveals a market in an expansion phase, but still without the excesses typical of the end of the cycle. Two of the main indicators that make up the IBCI help to explain this situation: the Puell Multiple and the short-term SOPR (STH-SOPR) are still below the intermediate line, indicating that speculative retail activity and rapid profit-taking have not yet arrived for good in this bullish cycle.
In addition, the Puell Multiple is an excellent indicator for valuing the Bitcoin network, as we can see how profitable miners on the network are compared to the price according to the amount of Bitcoin issued daily - so this indicator is very close to the Discount range, despite the Bitcoin price having recently renewed its all-time high.
In other words, the IBCI is being “held up” by a base of fundamentals that points to an absence of generalized euphoria. This suggests that there is still room for new highs before the market reaches a definitive end-of-cycle top.
The behavior of the IBCI therefore offers an important warning sign: we are in a zone of high corrective risk in the short term, but not necessarily at a major end-of-cycle top. It's important to keep monitoring these two main indicators, which are still signaling room for further price rises.
Written by G a a h
