Following its recent rally, Bitcoin reached the $124K level — which aligns with the +1 standard deviation (STD) of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (holders <6 months). This level has since acted as a local top, leading to a 4.5% price correction. As a result, many traders and investors are now focused on identifying the most relevant on-chain support and resistance zones.
This metric, built from Bitcoin’s Realized Price model, incorporates several key realized cost basis levels for different investor cohorts — including their standard deviations — to highlight statistically significant zones of buyer activity and price reaction.
🔼 Resistance Zones (Short-Term Risk)
$124K — This level represents the +1 STD of the STH Realized Price, marking the average cost basis of short-term holders pushed one standard deviation higher. Historically, this band often coincides with profit-taking and local tops.
$136K — This upper resistance aligns with the +1 STD of <1M Holders' Realized Price — the most aggressive cohort. When BTC pushes into this area, the market is typically in overbought conditions with excessive unrealized profit for new buyers.
🔽 Support Zones (Short-Term Buy Interest)
$113K — This level matches the +0.5 STD above the STH Realized Price and often acts as dynamic short-term support during consolidations.
$111K — This is the average cost basis of investors who acquired BTC within the past month. When BTC corrects into this area, new entrants are at breakeven, creating a psychological support zone.
$101K — The baseline STH Realized Price. This is the most critical support for Bitcoin’s medium-term bullish structure. Historically, staying above this zone signals strongholder conviction and trend continuation.
Written by Crazzyblockk
