Recent market activity has presented compelling signals, including a breach of All-Time Highs (ATH) during the past week and a notable inflow of capital into spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). These developments could be interpreted as preliminary indicators of an impending market euphoria phase.
However, a closer examination of underlying market sentiment, particularly through on-chain indicators, suggests a more nuanced picture. Despite the recent price surge, our proprietary "Greed Indicator" remains at a mid-level. This observation implies that numerous on-chain metrics, which typically reflect broader market participation and speculative fervor, have yet to demonstrate significant upward movement.
A representative example is the rHODL ratio, currently positioned at a modest 32%. This metric, traditionally indicative of long-term holder behavior and the distribution of wealth across different investor cohorts, suggests a continued reluctance among retail participants (often referred to as "prawns" in market vernacular) to fully engage with the market. Historically, periods of true market euphoria have been characterized by substantial inflows from retail investors, a dynamic not yet prominently observed.
Therefore, from this perspective, the onset of a full-fledged euphoria phase may not have commenced. The recent price appreciation appears predominantly driven by the concentrated influence of institutional investors, rather than broad-based retail participation. It is noteworthy that preceding market euphorias have consistently followed a period of mass retail ingress.
Nevertheless, a recent and highly noticeable surge in rHODL ratio is beginning to emerge, potentially signaling the commencement of what is colloquially termed 'the last dance.'
Written by joohyun ryu
