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Overall Market
Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.
In our previous report, our desk maintained an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in the coming weeks, while also highlighting downside risks associated with the upcoming expiration of the US tariffs pause on July 9, 2025. Additionally, we flagged the unusually low implied volatility in BTC options as a potential signal for an imminent significant price move.
Last Friday, BTC briefly traded below $107,300, marking a 2.8% decline from Thursday’s high of $109,560. Market sentiment remained relatively subdued, with BTC implied volatility (IV) experiencing a slight rebound after the drop but returning to lower levels over the weekend. The $107,500 level continued to act as key support, aligned with the upper boundary of the established bull flag pattern.
Our desk observed a recurring trading pattern related to US tariffs, where risk assets tend to decline ahead of tariff effective dates but rally afterward. As discussed in our March 13 and April 10 commentaries, this phenomenon—colloquially termed “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out)—follows a three-step cycle: initial tariff announcement triggers market sell-off; investors buy the dip anticipating tariff rollback; and finally, tariffs are delayed, reduced, or withdrawn, prompting market recovery.
This pattern appeared to repeat on Wednesday, July 9, the final day of the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs introduced on April 9. The market rallied with the announcement that tariffs would take effect on August 1. BTC exhibited strong buying momentum an hour before the US market closed, surging to a new all-time high of $112,000. Altcoins outperformed, with ETH rising over 6% and trading above $2,795.
Amid this altcoin strength, BTC dominance (BTC.D) began to decline. Our analysis suggests this trend could continue, potentially driving BTC.D down toward the 50% range over the coming months. This shift may signal the onset of the long-anticipated altcoin season within the current cycle.
However, several critical factors remain unresolved before we can confirm this outlook:
1. The absence of global liquidity easing, particularly from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed plans to relax the MLR (Minimum Liquidity Requirement) restrictions, our desk expects a more accommodative monetary environment only after the Fed initiates interest rate cuts. According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, the probability of a rate cut in the upcoming July 30 meeting has fallen to 5% following last Friday’s strong labor market data.
2. The upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE) of Pump.fun coin, currently valued at approximately $4 billion. We are concerned that this large-scale TGE could absorb significant market capital—especially within the Solana ecosystem—potentially causing market disruptions similar to those triggered by $TRUMP earlier in 2025.
Without easing global liquidity and lower US interest rates, it is difficult to argue that the long-awaited altcoin season is ready to commence. Institutional adoption, driven by substantial capital inflows into BTC-focused ETFs and public company balance sheets, remains concentrated primarily on Bitcoin, with only modest allocations to $ETH, $SOL, $BNB, and other large-cap altcoins. Unlike previous cycles, this institutional capital has not yet rotated from Bitcoin into altcoins, which historically has been the catalyst for altcoin season.
BTC reached a new all-time high on Wednesday, supported by strong upward momentum, while our desk noted notable strength in altcoin performance. We remain optimistic on BTC’s price trajectory in this cycle; however, the persistently muted BTC implied volatility signals caution. Additionally, we are closely monitoring Federal Reserve monetary policy for indications of liquidity easing, as well as the potential market impact of the upcoming Pump.fun coin TGE on the Solana ecosystem, to better assess the likelihood of an upcoming altcoin season.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker
The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.
Over the past four trading sessions, BTC spot ETFs have experienced substantial capital inflows, totaling over $1.2 billion net. During this period, BTC’s price rose from $108,800 to $111,580, representing a 2.5% gain. Despite strong and sustained capital inflows over the past month, BTC’s price has been trading within a narrow range, which raised concerns within our desk regarding the muted price movement amid robust demand.
Following continued ETF inflows and significant corporate purchases by public companies, BTC surged to a new all-time high on Wednesday, reaching the $112,000 level. This breakout suggests that the accumulation from ETF buyers overtook the selling pressure on the market. Looking ahead, our desk anticipates that capital inflows will remain strong, particularly as institutional investors in traditional finance increasingly seek alternative assets to diversify beyond a US-centric investment approach. Against this backdrop of growing institutionalization, we maintain a positive outlook on BTC’s price trajectory.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (July 03, 2025)
US unemployment data for June 2025 showed a decrease to 4.1% compared to 4.2% for May 2025, contrary to market expectations of an increase to 4.3%. The unemployment rate has remained within the 4.0%-4.2% range since May 2024, pointing to stability for the broad labor market.
Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 147K in June 2025, markedly higher than the forecasted 110K and further underscoring a resilient labor market.
The UK S&P Global Composite PMI increased for the second consecutive month to 52.0 for June 2025 (May 2025: 50.3), above forecasts of 50.7.
Last Friday (July 04, 2025)
The S&P Global UK Construction PMI increased to 48.8 in June 2025 (May 2025: 47.9), with modest growth for residential building outweighed by larger declines in commercial & civil engineering activity.
Japan’s household spending rose at the quickest pace in 3 years, with a 4.7% annual increase for June 2025. This was markedly higher than market expectations of a 1.2% increase, and comes on the back of government action aiming at boosting domestic consumption.
Tuesday (July 08, 2025)
US consumer credit data for May showed consumers are slowing the rate at which they take on additional credit. Total credit increased by $5.1 billion for the month, down from a $16.9 billion increase in April.
Minutes of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting of 3-5 June were released, showing that June’s interest rate cut was made to avoid an unnecessary increase in borrowing costs and reduced credit availability. “Highly uncertain” macro conditions were cited by policymakers in light of persistent trade tensions.
Wednesday (July 09, 2025)
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting were released, with most officials implying that interest rates could be lowered by the end of the year, should certain economic outcomes justify a move. The next Federal Reserve meeting - to set interest rate policy - is set for July 29 & 30.
China’s consumer price index fell by 0.10% in June 2025 over the previous month, but rose by 0.10% on an annual basis - marking the first year-on-year increase in consumer inflation since January of this year.
China’s producer prices fell 3.6% annually in June 2025, surpassing market expectations of a 3.2% decrease and May 2025 ’s 3.3% decrease.
Thursday (July 10, 2025)
US initial jobless claims decreased from the previous week’s 232,000 to 227,000, below market expectations of an increase to 236,000 and marking the fourth consecutive decline and the lowest count in seven weeks.
Continuing jobless claims in the US on the other hand increased to 1965K for June 2025, which is the highest count since November 2021 but below forecasts of 1,980K.
Germany’s annual inflation rate decreased to 2% in June 2025, marking the lowest in 8 months and in line with market consensus.
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