How BTC feels now: | CryptoBirb on Binance Square

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How BTC feels now:

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What does it really mean I’m leaving crypto this year? Let me explain... First of all, it doesn't mean I'm disappearing lol. It's my 9th year in crypto & I'm far from leaving for good. Besides, there's a mission and vision I'm fighting for. I'm only referring the financial rotation. When someone tells you they exit, here's what it means: You can't exit into a vacuum. You just rotate capital — from one market to another — based on risk, timing, and cycle data. For that, here are some facts & figures to consider: ➾ My crypto exit will last 6–9 months (complex process) ➾ I had several big entries @ SMA200 resets: ~20k, 30k, 40k, and 50k since early 2023 (all shared publicly) ➾ Current #BTC performance from the bear market low is +700%, vs historical annualised return of +145%. ➾ Cycle tops always occurred in US post-election years: 2013, 2017, 2021 (now 2025). ➾ Bear markets always followed in midterm years: 2014, 2018, 2022. ➾ 2026 is a midterm year. Avg BTC bear return is –66%, with drawdowns from top to bottom reaching -80%. ➾ BTC topped in Q2 or Q4 in 100% of cases (Q2 ended). Q3 is weak seasonally (low volumes, summer lull). ➾ September is the worst month (–6.17% avg). Oct/Nov are historically strongest (Q4 avg +51%, Nov +17.34%). ➾ Macro: inverted yield curve (22/23), trade war, high rates → recession risk 6–9 months later = late 2025 / early 2026. My opinion: top in July or late October/early November. Rotation: cash, real estate, gold, hedge funds, luxury. I'd burnt millions before (not willing to repeat that). Better to exit into strength than hold through –70% bear. I’ll look to re-enter crypto in Q4 2026 or early 2027 — after recession signals reset (aggressive rate cuts end of 2026/2027), and asymmetric upside returns. It's a cyclical process - different time, same story. Rinse and repeat. That’s how we grow.

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#BTC looks like it's getting ready to spring up any time now.

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