On Binance, the Spot-Perpetual Price Delta has remained in negative territory since December 2024. This indicates that the spot price has consistently traded above the perpetual (futures) price — meaning that even as Bitcoin rises, futures traders on Binance are not fully participating in the rally.
When the delta shifted from positive to negative in December 2024, Bitcoin marked its then all-time high (ATH). This structure suggested an aggressive build-up of long positions in Binance's perpetual market, while the spot price remained comparatively lower. Following that peak, Bitcoin declined to $74,000 — yet the delta remained negative throughout.
Now, despite Bitcoin printing a new ATH, the delta is still negative. This suggests that while spot demand remains strong, perpetual prices — specifically on Binance — are still lagging. In other words, the rally seems to be driven primarily by spot buyers, with leveraged long participants not yet fully engaged.
This structure may reflect a phase of accumulation, where the market is absorbing supply before a stronger continuation. However, when perpetual prices start exceeding spot — signaling an influx of long leverage — it could mark the beginning of a reversal or correction phase, as liquidity becomes a target.
In summary, spot buyers are currently dominant, but the equilibrium on Binance’s perpetual side should be watched closely. If the delta flips positive, it could indicate excessive long positioning — often a precursor to increased volatility or downside pressure.
Written by BorisVest
