BCMI Snapshot
Where we are: Index just cleared the neutral 0.50 line → “mid-cycle, warming up.”
Sentiment leads: Fear & Greed sits in the low-70s (greed), while MVRV (~2.0) + NUPL (~0.4) show valuations only halfway to euphoria.
Historical pattern: The 0.60-0.75 zone has repeatedly delivered 20-35 % shake-outs before any cycle peak (> 0.75). Expect more volatility as we approach it.
Risk lens: ETF inflows and self-custody are muting on-chain spikes; momentum could grind higher, but crowded derivatives (OI / funding) can still cause snap-backs.
Practical take:
1. Spot: scale in, use trailing stops.
2. Holders: keep a core stack, start hedging or trimming leverage once BCMI tags 0.60+.
3. > 0.75: lock gains, de-risk.
Written by 우민규 Woominkyu
