To demonstrate the dominance of BTC futures volumes on Binance, one simply needs to compare them to the spot market volumes.
Since Binance currently concentrates the largest share of total volume, this provides a fairly relevant perspective.
This ratio spot futures volume on Binance has averaged around 0.26 since 2019, meaning that for every $1 invested in Binance spot market, approximately $4 go into Binance futures market.
We're clearly dealing with an increasingly speculative market.
Taking this ratio into account, the following chart highlights periods where either spot or futures volumes significantly outperform their historical baseline.
At present, the market appears even more speculative than usual, a sign of instability and elevated volatility.
This ratio becomes especially relevant when the opposite happens.
When the market rebalances or becomes more spot-driven, those phases have historically coincided with more stable conditions, often allowing for longer lasting bullish trends such as in early and late 2023.
Still, it is important to keep in mind that futures have consistently dominated volume on Binance ever since they were introduced.
In conclusion, the market continues to show a lack of strong spot demand.
Written by Darkfost
