JPMorgan has surprised the crypto community with a new projection that significantly lowers expectations for stablecoin growth. According to the bank, the stablecoin market will only reach $500 billion by 2028 — a stark contrast to previous forecasts like Standard Chartered’s $2 trillion projection.
🔹 Limited Real-World Use of Stablecoins
JPMorgan’s research reveals that just 6% of stablecoin usage is related to real-world payments. The majority — about 88% — is tied to trading, DeFi activities, and crypto treasury functions. This indicates stablecoins have yet to become widely adopted in everyday financial transactions.
🔹 GENIUS Act Could Shift the Landscape
There are, however, signs of change. The recently passed GENIUS Act in the U.S. Senate could offer much-needed regulatory clarity, potentially attracting new investors and encouraging broader adoption.
🔹 Stablecoins Face Growing Competition from CBDCs
Stablecoin adoption is facing headwinds as governments push forward with their own digital currencies (CBDCs). China is aggressively promoting the digital yuan globally, while the ECB and Israel are advancing their digital euro and digital shekel initiatives. Meanwhile, Russia plans to mandate digital ruble payments for larger firms by 2027.
🔹 Room for Growth Exists, But Hurdles Remain
JPMorgan highlights that lower yields, costly fiat conversions, and a lack of consumer-facing benefits continue to limit stablecoins’ mainstream appeal. These barriers must be overcome for the market to realize its full potential.
Despite the conservative forecast, many in the industry remain hopeful that regulation and financial innovation could reshape the future of digital assets.
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