Anndy Lian
Trade talks, Bitcoin surges and market moves: Navigating the July 9 deadline
With the 9th July deadline looming, trade policy remains a pivotal concern, influencing investor behaviour and market movements across stocks, treasuries, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The interplay of these factors paints a picture of cautious optimism tempered by persistent uncertainties, and it’s worth exploring each facet in depth to understand the broader implications.
Global risk sentiment and trade policy dynamics
Global risk sentiment has shown signs of improvement in recent days, driven mainly by developments in evolving trade policies. On Sunday, 29 June, Canada made a significant move by withdrawing its digital services tax on technology companies, a decision aimed at restarting trade negotiations with the United States. This step suggests a willingness to de-escalate tensions and foster a more collaborative economic relationship, which investors have interpreted as a positive signal.
Similarly, reports indicate that the European Union is prepared to accept President Donald Trump’s proposed 10 per cent universal tariff on many of its exports, though it is pushing for lower rates on key sectors. This flexibility hints at a pragmatic approach to avoid a full-blown trade war, further bolstering market confidence.
Not all trade-related news is conciliatory. In a recent Fox News interview, President Trump suggested maintaining 25 per cent tariffs on Japanese cars as negotiations between the US and Japan continue. This stance introduces a layer of uncertainty, signalling that some trade disputes remain unresolved and could potentially escalate.
With the 9th July deadline approaching, likely tied to a critical juncture in these trade talks, the global financial community is watching closely. The mixed signals from these developments suggest that while there’s room for optimism, the path forward is far from clear, and the risk of renewed tensions lingers.
Stock markets reflect cautious optimism
The US stock markets have responded to these trade policy shifts with gains, reflecting a degree of investor confidence. The S&P 500 rose by 0.52 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.63 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.47 per cent.
These advances indicate that investors are encouraged by the prospect of easing trade frictions, particularly between the US, Canada, and the EU. The anticipation of smoother trade relations could enhance corporate earnings and economic stability, driving equity prices higher.
Yet, this optimism isn’t uniform across all regions. In Asia, equity indices displayed mixed performances during early trading sessions, suggesting that investors there are adopting a more wait-and-see approach. This regional divergence might stem from uncertainties about how US-centric trade policies will ripple through global supply chains, particularly with Japan’s tariff situation unresolved.
Meanwhile, US equity index futures point to a higher opening for American stocks, reinforcing the notion that domestic markets, at least, are leaning toward a bullish outlook in the short term.
Treasury yields and the US dollar signal underlying concerns
While stocks trend upward, the bond market tells a more nuanced story. US Treasury yields eased across the curve, with the 10-year yield dropping 4.9 basis points to 4.228 per cent and the two-year yield falling 2.9 basis points to 3.719 per cent. Typically, declining yields suggest a flight to safety, as investors seek the relative security of government bonds amid uncertainty.
In this context, the yield drop might also reflect anticipation of the upcoming US June jobs report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. A weaker-than-expected report might fuel expectations of rate cuts, pushing yields down further.
The US Dollar Index adds another layer of complexity, having weakened by 0.54 per cent in a single session and suffering a staggering 10.8 per cent decline since the start of 2025, its worst first-half loss since 1973. This dramatic depreciation could be attributed to several factors, including the shifting trade landscape, economic data signalling a slowdown, or central bank policies diverging from those of other major economies.
A weaker dollar often boosts the appeal of US exports, aligning with the dynamics of trade negotiations, but it also raises questions about the greenback’s long-term strength and its implications for global markets.
Commodities: Gold shines, oil holds steady
In the commodities sphere, gold has emerged as a standout performer, rising 0.88 per cent to US$3,303 per ounce. This uptick underscores its role as a safe-haven asset, appealing to investors wary of economic instability or inflationary pressures.
The trade policy uncertainties, coupled with the dollar’s decline, likely contribute to gold’s allure, as it often thrives when traditional currencies falter. Conversely, Brent crude oil edged down by 0.09 per cent to US$68 per barrel, a marginal shift that suggests stable demand expectations despite the evolving trade environment. Oil’s muted response might indicate that markets don’t yet foresee significant disruptions to global energy flows from these trade talks.
The cryptocurrency surge: Bitcoin takes centre stage
Perhaps the most intriguing development lies in the cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin is experiencing a notable resurgence. Its price climbed 0.54 per cent to US$107,937, spurred by comments from President Trump urging Republicans not to fret over deficit spending.
Analyst Will Clemente argues that such a stance reinforces the bullish case for Bitcoin and gold, as expansive fiscal policies could stoke inflation, driving investors toward alternative stores of value. This view gained traction as a Trump family-associated cryptocurrency venture raised US$220 million for Bitcoin mining, signalling high-profile endorsement and investment in the digital asset space.
Beyond the headlines, Bitcoin’s dominance is growing. Its share of the total cryptoasset market value has surged to 64 per cent in 2025, the highest since January 2021, according to CoinMarketCap. This rise contrasts sharply with the fate of altcoins, digital assets beyond Bitcoin and stablecoins, which have seen over US$300 billion in market value erased this year.
This divergence suggests a flight to quality within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, with investors favouring Bitcoin’s established reputation over riskier, less proven alternatives.
London’s Bitcoin boom: A corporate shift
The cryptocurrency trend extends beyond individual investors to corporate boardrooms, particularly in London. At least nine London-listed companies, ranging from web design firms to gold miners, have recently announced plans to buy Bitcoin or have already done so, aiming to boost their share prices.
This strategy echoes the success of Japan’s Metaplanet, Germany’s Bitcoin Group, and US-based MicroStrategy, whose valuation skyrocketed nearly 400 per cent since adopting a Bitcoin-centric approach in August 2020.
For London’s equity market, which has historically been light on digital asset exposure and constrained by regulatory limits on crypto-linked products, this marks a significant shift in sentiment. Companies are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a treasury asset, a hedge against inflation, and a means to attract investor interest.
Synthesising the big picture
Stepping back, the current global risk sentiment is a tapestry of interwoven threads, improving trade relations, persistent uncertainties, and innovative financial strategies. Canada’s tax withdrawal and the EU’s tariff flexibility have injected optimism into markets, evident in US stock gains and futures pointing to further upside.
Yet, Trump’s hardline stance on Japanese tariffs, falling Treasury yields, and the dollar’s historic weakness suggest that not all risks have dissipated. Investors are hedging their bets, flocking to gold and Bitcoin while keeping an eye on economic indicators like the upcoming jobs report.
The cryptocurrency narrative adds a forward-looking dimension. Bitcoin’s ascent, fuelled by corporate adoption, political rhetoric, and market dynamics, positions it as a potential mainstay in the financial landscape. London’s embrace of this trend, alongside the Trump family’s crypto ventures, underscores a broader acceptance of digital assets, even as altcoins falter. This selective enthusiasm highlights a discerning market that prioritises stability amid volatility.
My point of view
In my view, we’re witnessing a pivotal moment where traditional and emerging markets are converging under the weight of shifting trade policies and economic uncertainty. The improvement in global risk sentiment is real but fragile, hinging on the outcomes of negotiations by the 9th July deadline.
Stock market gains reflect hope, but the bond and currency markets reveal a cautious undercurrent that shouldn’t be ignored. Gold’s rise and Bitcoin’s dominance signal a search for resilience in an unpredictable world, whether against inflation, currency devaluation, or geopolitical friction.
For investors, this environment demands a balanced approach: capitalising on equity opportunities while diversifying into safe havens, such as gold and Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency surge, particularly among London-based firms, suggests that digital assets are no longer a fringe consideration but a strategic one for mainstream finance.
The altcoin collapse serves as a reminder that not all innovations endure. As trade talks progress and economic data unfold, flexibility and vigilance will be key. The global market is in flux, but within that flux lies opportunity for those who navigate it wisely.
Source: https://e27.co/trade-talks-bitcoin-surges-and-market-moves-navigating-the-july-9-deadline-20250701/
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