There are always many forecasts circulating regarding the price of BTC, and this time one is circulating that predicts it at $130,000 by August.
The current situation is actually uncertain, especially because the direction that the Dollar Index might take in the short term is very uncertain, to which the price of Bitcoin tends to be correlated, especially in the medium term.
Due to this uncertainty, both positive and negative forecasts are abundant, but overall there seems to be a bit of optimism.
BTC (Bitcoin): the forecasts of CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant is one of the leading platforms for analyzing the price of Bitcoin.
One of the analysts from CryptoQuant, who goes by the name ELI5, claims that the on-chain volume profile shows a critical breakout zone.
Then he adds:
“It’s only a matter of time before BTC decisively surpasses $110,000.”
The fact is that the current on-chain volume models closely resemble BTC’s behavior before past parabolic rallies, therefore such indicators would already suggest a possible bull of the price of Bitcoin.
With this theory, market analyst Cas Abbé also agrees, showing in a post on X the relationship between the OBV indicator and the price of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin OBV is still in an uptrend.$BTC price is consolidating, but On-Balance Volume (OBV) is still making higher highs.
Per coloro che non lo sanno, un OBV in aumento indica pressione di acquisto.
Se l’OBV continua a salire, BTC alla fine uscirà dal suo intervallo di consolidamento.
Sono un bull… pic.twitter.com/ikD7FeJb2T
— Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe) June 18, 2025
ELI5 has also highlighted that the current trend of the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), and that of the volume of on-chain BTC transfers, resemble both those of 2017 and those of 2021.
This analysis indicates that if the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above the key support levels, and if the current on-chain volume momentum remains stable, a break of even 130,000$ could be expected in the summer.
The parallel with 2017
Up to today, there have been four Bitcoin halvings, and four presidential elections in the USA since Bitcoin has existed (2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024).
In all cases, the following year the price of BTC reached new highs.
However, the great bull run of 2013 is in fact unrepeatable, because it was the first ever, and because gains of that magnitude, over the span of twelve months, are no longer realistic.
The great bull run of 2021 was also unusual, because in 2020 before the halving, the enormous QE by the Fed had begun, which had started to push down the Dollar Index even before the US presidential elections (it usually goes down afterwards).
So the great bull run that might be more similar to the one expected in 2025 is the one from 2017.
In 2017 the price of BTC rose until just before mid-June, marking a first all-time high above $3,000. It is noteworthy that the starting price that year was below $1,000.
From mid-June to mid-July there was a correction that brought the price below $2,000, but it was immediately followed by a rebound that by mid-August took the price even above $4,000.
In September, there was a new correction, which brought it back to $3,000, and then between October and mid-December, there was a sensational speculative bubble that took it to a high of $20,000. The following year, it fell back below $4,000.
The support of 100,000$
Something vaguely similar might happen this year as well, although with growth percentages that are far lower.
The fact is that as of today, the $100,000 level seems to be an important support for the price of BTC, and since it is slightly below the all-time highs of $111,000, Bitcoin could theoretically be on the launching pad.
For example, the analyst Tim Enneking highlights that the most important aspect of the BTC price trend in recent weeks is precisely the holding of the 100,000$ level. Furthermore, he adds that it has moved very quickly from being a strong resistance to being an even stronger support.
Now the resistance level has become $110,000, so much so that Enneking hypothesizes that BTC will soon restart, establishing another all-time high well above the current one.
Other analysts also see the possibility of new all-time highs in the summer above $120,000, because overall the current structure of Bitcoin’s price trend still appears bullish.
The relationship between Dollar Index (DXY) and forecasts on BTC
These movements should also depend on the movements of the Dollar Index (DXY).
To tell the truth, in the short term, there are those who believe a rise in DXY is possible, especially due to the fact that the US dollar is considered a safe haven, in the short term, when there are tensions in the markets.
The trend of BTC price tends to be inversely correlated to that of DXY, so if in the short term the Dollar Index were to rise, a drop in Bitcoin could be expected.
However, even the trend of the Dollar Index in the medium term seems to be descending, and this means that pushing the price of BTC upwards in the summer could also be a possible further decline of DXY, after the one at the beginning of the year.
