🚨 FOMC Update: Fed Holds Rates, Warns of Tariff-Driven Inflation 🚨
Rates Steady at 4.25–4.50%: The Fed paused again, forecasting two potential cuts later in 2025—but emphasized policy remains data-dependent .
Tariff Concerns Rising: Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs will likely filter through supply chains, pushing "meaningful" inflation over the summer .
Economic Outlook: Growth projections trimmed to 1.4%, unemployment rising to 4.5%, and inflation expected around 3% by year-end .
Fed Stance: Officials urge caution—no hasty rate cuts without clarity on tariff passthrough and labor market trends .
Political Pressure: Trump pressed for immediate rate cuts, but Powell maintained the Fed’s independence and forward-looking bias .
🔎 What's Next for Markets & Crypto
Risk Assets (like crypto) may benefit from the promised two rate cuts, but tariff-driven inflation could dampen enthusiasm.
Stagflation Risk is on the radar: slower growth + rising prices = choppy terrain ahead.
Watchpoints: Upcoming inflation prints and tariff impact data will shape whether cuts happen—or are delayed beyond September.
TL;DR: The Fed paused rates, bumped expected inflation to 3% due to looming tariffs, and signaled potential easing—but only once economic clarity arrives. It's a cautious script in a politically uncertain era.