Bitcoin’s 60-day Realized Cap Variance (RCV) Signal has shifted out of the "buy" zone, reflecting a transition away from low-risk accumulation conditions. As shown on the chart, the buy flags (yellow) have recently disappeared, marking the end of the favorable risk-reward window. However, despite the elevated levels of standardized RCV, the sell flag (red) has not yet triggered — primarily due to sustained 30-day positive momentum.
📊 Key Observations from the Data:
✅ Buy Signal Disappeared: Historically, buy flags have emerged when standardized RCV is deeply negative, paired with improving trend and upward momentum. These conditions are no longer present.
⚠️ RCV Rising: The current RCV has moved toward the neutral-to-high risk zone (>0.3), indicating the market is heating up and entering a less favorable phase for new long positions.
🟩 Momentum Still Positive: The 30-day price momentum remains in positive territory, which is preventing a sell signal and suggests there’s still bullish strength in the market.
❌ No Sell Flag Yet: A confirmed sell flag requires three things: RCV > +1, negative 30-day momentum, and declining RCV trend — none of which are fully met yet.
📈 Implication:
We’re in a risk-elevated phase, but not yet at extreme euphoria. Smart money accumulation zones are behind us. Traders should avoid aggressive buys, watch for trend reversals, and consider partial profit-taking if RCV climbs further into overheated territory.
Written by Crazzyblockk
