Yesterday, we issued a bearish put spread idea on MicroStrategy as our reversal indicators signaled weakness. More critically, we flagged the sharp drop in volatility and its broader implications. MicroStrategy dropped 7.5% following our note, highlighting our research's timeliness, accuracy, and actionable nature.
In Q1 2025, our research outperformed Bitcoin by generating +11% alpha. We turned bearish in February near $95,000 and re-entered mid-April when our trend model signaled a bullish reversal—since then, Bitcoin has been up over 30%.
We’ve also added high-conviction leveraged trades, including Bitdeer (+90%) and well-performing Bitcoin call spreads. Our analysis identified that Coinbase was undervalued relative to Bitcoin, with shares rising by +30% since we showed the chart overlay.
We also outperformed Bitcoin on the way up by strategically adding leverage when the risk-reward profile turned favorable. Even if you’re only trading Bitcoin, our research delivers clear value, providing timely insights that enhance performance and save time.
Why This Report Matters
Bitcoin is making new all-time highs, but one of its biggest proxies, MicroStrategy, isn’t keeping up. Under the surface, something is shifting: volatility is falling, momentum is fading, and key signals are quietly flashing caution. Retail traders chasing upside may not realize what’s already changed.
We’ve seen this setup before, and it rarely ends as most expect. In a market where perception often moves faster than reality, knowing what matters now can mean the difference between profit and regret. The full report breaks down the signals, levels, and setups professionals are already watching.
While at university, I spent two summers at the derivatives and structured products desks at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. These desks specialized in sourcing cheap volatility and reselling it at a premium. In practice, this meant buying volatility from hedge funds and packaging it into products sold to retail investors, allowing banks to capture riskless profits in the middle.
How can retail investors possibly assess the fair value of volatility when most don’t even have access to an option pricing model on their computer?
This is, in many ways, what MicroStrategy is doing today. They are sourcing, or engineering, cheap Bitcoin volatility and selling it at a premium. Like the banks, MicroStrategy acts as the middleman, rarely taking on real risk.
As long as prices continue to rise, everyone wins. It’s financial engineering, creating billions of dollars out of thin air as eager retail investors buy into the illusion of unlimited upside, fueled by bold promises that a $1 million Bitcoin is just around the corner.
The first sign that this three-party dynamic is unraveling is when MicroStrategy’s stock stops rising or its volatility begins to fade.
Read the full report free on our website - link in bio.
