Bitcoin has set a new all-time high, leading analysts to predict that the biggest altcoin season in history might be on the horizon.
Their arguments are based on capital flow cycles and the historical behavior of the crypto market. Analysts believe Bitcoin’s excitement will soon spread to altcoins. This article will break down the key factors behind that belief.
Why Expect the Biggest Altcoin Season Ever?
Analyst Wimar.X highlights one key factor. Historically, each altcoin season tends to begin around 380 days after a Bitcoin Halving event.
The most recent Halving occurred in April 2024. Based on this timeline, altseason could kick off as early as May 2025.
“The biggest Altseason in history starts on May 25…Altcoins’ market cap will hit $15 trillion this cycle,” Wimar.X predicts.
Altcoin Market Cap Prediction. Source: Wimax.X
Wimar.X also points out another typical trigger for altcoin season. It often starts after Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high (ATH), then enters a stabilization or slight correction phase. During this time, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) tends to drop. That’s when capital starts flowing from Bitcoin into altcoins, fueling their surge.
BTC Dominance measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the total crypto market cap. Recent data shows that BTC.D has fallen from 65.4% to a low of 62%, before stabilizing around 63.7%.
“The crypto market runs on cycles—it’s the only consistent pattern year after year. And when it comes to altseason, the formula is simple. Bitcoin Dominance Drops + Bitcoin Price Stagnates or Rises = Altcoins Pump. This is the one undeniable truth of the crypto market,” Wimar.X emphasizes.
Carl Moon – Founder of The Moon Show – shares the same view.
“Bitcoin Dominance is falling! Altcoin Season is imminent!” Carl Moon declared.
Another supporting factor is the crypto market’s historical performance in the second quarter (Q2). Data from Coinglass shows that Q2 is typically one of the strongest quarters for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Quarterly Returns. Source: Coinglass.
Specifically, Bitcoin has delivered an average Q2 return of about 26.89%. Ethereum has performed even better, with an average return of 66.8%. Similar or higher returns could be expected since altcoins often follow Ethereum’s trend. With Q2 underway in 2025, this might be the perfect window for altcoins to break out.
However, not all signals are entirely positive. According to Blockchain Center, the Altcoin Season Index dropped to its lowest point of the year, 13, right when Bitcoin hit its new ATH. It has since risen slightly to 18 at the time of writing.
Altcoin Season Index. Source: Blockchain Center.
This index measures how well the top 100 altcoins have performed against Bitcoin over the past 90 days. If 75% of them outperform Bitcoin, the market is considered in altseason. Despite the optimistic outlook, the recent drop suggests that altcoins are not yet leading the market.
This raises an important question: Will altseason still follow historical patterns, or do investors need to wait more before capital shifts from Bitcoin to altcoins?
