Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee as we explore Standard Chartered’s bold Bitcoin forecast, why Nic Puckrin says the real euphoria hasn’t even begun, and the latest ETF flow trends reshaping investor sentiment. With BTC smashing through all-time highs and institutional adoption surging, today’s briefing cuts through the noise to give you the insights that matter most.
Crypto News of the Day: Standard Chartered Projects Bitcoin at $200,000
Standard Chartered Bank has reaffirmed its bullish outlook on Bitcoin, forecasting the cryptocurrency to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025 and potentially soar to $500,000 by 2028.
This projection is underpinned by increasing institutional and government interest in Bitcoin, particularly through indirect investments in companies like MicroStrategy, which holds substantial Bitcoin reserves.
“My official forecasts for Bitcoin are $120,000 end Q2, $200,000 end 2025 and $500,000 end 2028, all are well in hand,” Kendrick said.
Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick, highlighted that recent filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reveal a notable uptick in government entities acquiring exposure to Bitcoin proxies.
In the first quarter, 12 government-related institutions, including US state retirement funds and foreign central banks, increased their holdings in MicroStrategy, collectively amounting to approximately 31,000 Bitcoin worth of shares.
The bank also observed a significant shift in investment patterns, with Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experiencing substantial inflows.
Over the past five weeks, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows totaling $7.2 billion, while gold ETFs have recorded outflows of $3.6 billion during the same period. This trend suggests a growing preference for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset over traditional options like gold.
BTC Price (Last 24 Hours). Source: CoinGecko.
“Safe haven rotation in ETFs continues, and since 22 April, the high price for gold, gold ETPs have shed $3.6bn and BTC ETFs have added $7.5bn,” Kendrick said. “The recently released 13Fs showed broadened government buying of BTC proxies, and this has likely continued in Q2.”
Kendrick noted that these investments often stem from regulatory constraints that prevent direct Bitcoin holdings, prompting entities to seek alternative avenues for exposure.
He has observed that some government-related entities are increasing their exposure to Bitcoin through indirect means, such as investments in companies holding substantial Bitcoin reserves. This trend may be influenced by regulatory constraints that limit direct holdings of Bitcoin by these entities.
Furthermore, Kendrick emphasized the correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and macroeconomic factors, particularly the US Treasury term premium.
He explained that the elevated term premium, influenced by factors such as Japanese Government Bond (JGB) weakness, contributes to Bitcoin’s appeal amid traditional financial sector risks.
In addition to the $200,000 target for 2025, Standard Chartered maintains a long-term projection of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028. This outlook is supported by the anticipated continuation of favorable regulatory developments and increasing institutional adoption.
Bitcoin Breaks Out—But the Real Euphoria Hasn’t Begun Yet
Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst, investor and founder of The Coin Bureau, told BeInCrypto:
“After months of struggle, Bitcoin finally made it past its previous all-time high, and the cherry on the cake was that it closed last night above this level.”
This breakout, according to Puckrin, marks a significant shift in sentiment and market strength.
“And this time, it really is different – this rally is looking far more sustainable than what we saw in January, which was driven largely by unrealistic hopes about the impact of Trump’s presidency on the digital asset market.”
With Bitcoin now entering uncharted territory, he believes further gains could materialize quickly.
“Now that we’re in price discovery territory, we could see a relatively swift move up toward $120,000, though there will likely be some resistance around the $115,000 mark as traders take some chips off the table. Longer term, though, I don’t think anyone believes Bitcoin has reached its ceiling for this cycle, with $150,000 still my base case.”
Puckrin bases this view not just on price action, but also on broader indicators that suggest a lack of retail frenzy—for now.
“I have several reasons to think so. ETF flows, Bitcoin options’ implied volatility and Google search trends remain relatively subdued compared to the last time BTC breached the $100k threshold, which suggests euphoria hasn’t set in yet. It will get choppy once we get past the $120,000 mark, but there will still be room for BTC to run higher.”
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows. Source: The Block.
He also comments the macro backdrop, highlighting global liquidity as a driving force.
“Plus, on a macro level, I’m convinced we’ve only just seen the tip of the iceberg in terms of global liquidity flooding into the market.”
Still, Puckrin cautions against blind optimism, especially as extreme predictions begin to dominate headlines.
“The caveat is that this doesn’t mean Bitcoin is going to surge by 360%, like it did in 2017, or that predictions of $300,000 or $600,000 BTC price this cycle are realistic. The closer we get to the top, the more we’ll see such headlines, and the more volatile it will get.”
His closing reminder is a warning to newer investors not to get swept up in hype.
“Investors with less experience in the crypto market must be mindful not to get swept up in this hype. It’s always overblown – that’s the one thing that is 100% guaranteed.”
Chart of the Day
Bitcoin Correlation with US Treasury Term Premium. Source: Standard Chartered. Byte-Sized Alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
