With Bitcoin up nearly 8% this week, it's worth keeping an eye on Binance, which controls roughly 40% of the retail spot market and serves as a solid indicator of retail investor mood. While global markets remain shrouded by uncertainty, ranging from unresolved trade war tensions to poor US macro data, the crucial question today is whether Bitcoin's rise above $95K represents the start of a long-term breakout or a typical bull trap.
We’ve observed a clear divergence in exchange flow behavior:
From April 6 to 10, BTC inflows into Binance topped 15,000 BTC, coinciding with price stagnation in the $85K-$87K area. This often reflects sell-side pressure, which is most likely caused by short-term traders leaving holdings or covering taxes. However, from April 19 to 23, Binance observed a rise in outflows, coinciding with a renewed price increase to $93K+. Over 15,000 BTC departed the market during this period, indicating a strong bullish signal of accumulation and self-custody conduct.
This pattern is supported by Exchange Reserve figures, which indicate a significant fall in reserves since April 18, further lowering near-term sale pressure and fundamentally supporting the gain. The Exchange Whale Ratio, which fell below 0.3 on April 23, indicates a major shift in participation—from institutional or big traders to more retail-dominant flows. This suggests less whale selling and, perhaps, a "cleaner" market environment in which price movements are driven by organic demand rather than large-volume sell-side pressure.
My thesis is that:
High-leverage longs were flushed out between $82K and $88K, indicating that weak hands had been eliminated. Large short positions remain susceptible above $92,000, creating the possibility of a short squeeze, which might act as the next step higher. With the market structure cleaned up and liquidity thin above present levels, any trigger (ETF flows, Fed pivot , EM weakness) may rapidly propel BTC above $98K-$100K.
Written by Novaque Research
