According to BlockBeats, the RUP indicator, which measures the unrealized profit status of the overall market, is a crucial signal for identifying market tops. Historically, RUP has shown a strong positive correlation with Bitcoin's price movements. However, deviations from this correlation can signal important market changes.
In previous analyses, the RUP indicator was used to dissect historical market cycle tops. Currently, a broader perspective is applied to observe the RUP in the ongoing market cycle. Notably, during two major price surges—first when Bitcoin's price surpassed $70,000 and later at $100,000—the RUP was higher at the $70,000 mark. This discrepancy is attributed to the significant realized profits from low-cost holdings, which heavily influence the RUP.
The realization of profits by holders of low-cost Bitcoin led to a situation where, despite higher prices, the RUP did not increase proportionally. This phenomenon indicates that many low-cost holders cashed out, affecting the RUP's trajectory.
Looking ahead, the market's future scenarios are analyzed through the lens of the RUP. A recent market update highlighted a potential bottoming signal, leading to a notable Bitcoin price rebound. However, this rebound is characterized as a temporary recovery rather than a trend reversal. The current market situation shows the RUP rising slower than the price, suggesting a potential for a second divergence similar to 2017 if prices reach around $103,000. Should prices continue to rise and set new historical highs, a top divergence structure akin to those in 2013 and 2021 might emerge.
Regardless of the outcome, any significant price reversal will be promptly updated with the latest RUP status. This analysis aims to provide readers with insights into potential future market movements and the implications of RUP divergence signals.
