š¹ The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) stepped back into the foreign exchange market to defend the city's long-standing currency peg to the U.S. dollar. The Hong Kong dollar slipped below the lower bound of HK$7.85 per USD, triggering immediate action from the central bank.
š¹ In response, HKMA sold HK$9.4 billion (approximately $1.2 billion USD) from its reserves to buy back the local currency and push its value up. This move also reduced liquidity in the banking system, pushing up interbank interest ratesāsignificantly complicating the popular carry trade strategy, where investors borrow in low-interest Hong Kong dollars and convert them into higher-yielding U.S. dollars.
Cheap Hong Kong Dollar Bets Get More Expensive
š Until recently, traders could cheaply borrow Hong Kong dollars, convert them into U.S. dollars, and pocket the yield difference. But May and Juneās extreme volatility brought this game to a halt. With tighter liquidity and rising interest rates, HKMA is rewriting the rules.
š During the previous intervention in May, HKMA faced the opposite issueāa strengthening Hong Kong dollar. Back then, they injected more HKD into the market, slashing lending rates close to zero and fueling a speculatorās dream. Now, the situation has reversed, and the environment is getting much tougher.
Peg Under Scrutiny, but No Changes for Now
š Hong Kongās currency peg, in place since 1983, is a cornerstone of the city's financial system. But May 2025 saw the steepest drop in the HKD since the peg was established, raising questions about its long-term sustainability. Despite this, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu made it clear in early June: the peg isnāt going anywhere.
š¬ āMaintaining the peg is crucial to our financial credibility,ā Lee stated, aiming to calm market speculation.
Hong Kong Has the Firepower, But the Pressure Remains
š° With foreign currency reserves exceeding $431 billion, HKMA has ample ammunition to defend the peg. However, carry trades remain temptingāthe gap between U.S. and Hong Kong one-month interest rates is currently around 3.4%, drawing global investors into the game.
š§ While the Hong Kong dollar has returned to its target range, the real question is: How long can it stay there?
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