If confirmed, it could hit in the next few months.
Definitely something to keep an eye on.
Many people still believe that ETFs are the main driver of BTC price.
That was true in 2024, but it’s no longer the case in 2025.
This year, corporations have become the dominant force, they’ve bought 3 times more BTC than funds and ETFs, and 7 times more than governments.
Governments, in reality, don’t have as much buying power as companies.
They can support BTC adoption and make it easier for businesses to get BTC, but they’ll always remain secondary players.
What’s unfortunate is that retailers are selling their BTC to corporations and ETFs.
That said, ETFs still play a key role in shaping market confidence.
Spot ETF net flows are positive and helped fuel the recent pump, but momentum is slowing as we approach the ATH in net flows.
Flows have dropped below $300M daily and could soon turn negative.
What worries me most is the technical signal: the 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day moving average.
That’s historically been a bearish sign, it happened before every major bear market in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
But for now, it’s still unconfirmed.
We’re at a critical point.
Either BTC breaks down and confirms a bear market setup, or we get a strong bounce and escape this zone.
Until BTC breaks above $110K, uncertainty remains. What’s interesting is that the time cycles between each bear market also seem to line up.
For now, buyers have been in control over the past few days, and the RSI is rising.
In the short term, $104K is a key level.
If BTC breaks above it, we could push toward $110K.
The moving average crossover might end up being a false signal.
We've seen several of those during this cycle.
But the timing now aligns with the typical end of a bull market, which usually lasts around 200 weeks. The coming weeks or months will be critical.
What reassures me is that the fundamentals remain strong.
JPMorgan recently said BTC could surpass gold’s market cap this year, thanks to growing institutional adoption and more sophisticated derivatives products.
Also, institutions buy while retail sells.
Wallets holding over 100 BTC are still accumulating and show no sign of stopping.
We’re seeing more large holders and fewer small ones.
According to @CryptoHayes, BTC could hit $1M by 2028.
He believes two main factors could drive this surge:
1/ The devaluation of U.S. Treasury bonds
2/ The repatriation of foreign capital
In short, the charts and indicators are flashing warnings, the end of the bull market might be near.
But in the long run, BTC fundamentals are stronger than ever, backed by a macro environment that's becoming more favorable and less tied to U.S. markets.
BTC is increasingly playing the role of digital gold.
#BTC110KToday? #BinanceAlphaAlert #BTCBreaksATH