btcusdt

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a brutal (but technically anticipated) correction ever since its October 06 All Time High (ATH), registering 6 red candles out of last 7. We have shown in previous analyses why the Bear Cycle has technically started, how the market lost the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and is now about to touch the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
This is the time where we may see a counter-trend rally, the first within this Bear Cycle. First of all, BTC has just completed a total decline of -32.30%, exactly like to the January - April 2025 correction and identical to the -33.55% March - August 2024 correction. This is why we project the 86600 - 83600 range as the first technical Support Zone of this Bear Cycle and potential rebound candidate. In the meantime, the 1W RSI is approaching the 30.00 oversold barrier, which further enhances the probabilities for a relief rally.
If materialized, it can technically rise even as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, where it may make contact with the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), even above the 1W MA50. The 1D MA200 has been the counter-trend rally rejection trendline and Resistance of the previous two Bear Cycles. Coupled with the 0.618 Fib, it forms a formidable market Resistance Zone.
This rally may coincide with a final stock market rally, what is traditionally called 'the Santa Rally', which is the end-of-year rise on the markets. Technically that can be the perfect Bull Trap that rejects the rebound and resumes the bearish trend towards Lower Lows and eventually the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
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First of all allow me to begin by saying this: IT IS NEVER FUN to call market tops. Especially on long-term charts, especially on Bitcoin/ crypto. And the reason is that, usually it violently traps most people in. Either for a long time or until they lose all capital. And nobody should take joy in this and as chief analyst here at Tradingshot, I am no exception.
Regardless of that, our thesis here has been pretty simple and for a long time we've been calling for an October exit, as that was when the 4-year Cycle Theory suggested the Bull Cycle would top. I personally hope I am wrong but in all my decades of investing, I learned that 'hope' doesn't get you far here, quite the contrary it teaches you brutal (and often very expensive lessons). The hard facts and historical evidence, point to a new Bear Cycle. And we will keep presenting the charts, the empirical evidence no matter how many followers we lose or how many negative comments we see as they mean nothing to us. Profit making only does.
Now that I got this out of the way, let's see what other key levels Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit. Yesterday's aggressive decline saw the market making a Low marginally below the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the 3-year Channel Up. Essentially that has been the dominant pattern of the whole Bull Cycle. BTC already closed below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last week, which has historically been a Bear Cycle confirmation, already lost the basic structure of its Bull Cycle rallies by breaking way below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Higher Low and now faces with the complete breakdown of the pattern - crossing below its bottom.
Needless to say, if BTC closes the week below it, selling could accelerate, with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), being the market's next long-term Support, where a counter-trend bounce could be possible.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals