Whatās happening right now in the crypto market reminds me ofĀ February, when everyone was excessively bullish⦠and you probably remember what happened in early February.
Iām not saying it will repeat exactly, butĀ on a smaller scale, yes.
In my opinion, weāve already gone through a big part of it, so the marketĀ pain wonāt fully subside until October 5, about 10 days from now ā³.
Bitcoin, its peak, and the bear market
Many ask whether weāveĀ really entered a bear market. The answer isnāt that simple.
I have a basic rule:
š« A bear marketĀ cannot start while Bitcoin dominance is high.
Why?
When Bitcoin dominance is high, it meansĀ liquidity is still in Bitcoin. Whales and market makers havenāt fully sold yet.
When they start selling Bitcoin, it happens gradually:
Into stablecoinsInto EthereumInto high, medium, and small market-cap coinsThen finally into dollars šµ
During this stage, dominance gradually drops from the peaks to the bear market bottom. Even as Bitcoin declines, dominanceĀ wonāt riseāit will keep falling.
RoughlyĀ 80% of dominance declineĀ happens while Bitcoin is at highs and being distributed, and the rest completes during the bear market.
Current situation:
Bitcoin dominance dropped fromĀ 65% ā 57%Ethereum dominance increasedBut thatāsĀ not enough yet⦠dominance is still high, aroundĀ 60%
š But this is anĀ early signalĀ that the end of this cycle is approaching, because distribution is happening at the peaks:Ā 107K, 109K, then the latest peaksĀ 120K⦠and itās not done yet.
When will I say the peaks are done and distribution is complete?
When Bitcoin dominanceĀ falls below 47%, while Bitcoin is still at the highs.
This means we can still expectĀ one more upward wave, slightly above previous peaks, before the final top ā
.
Historical comparison:
2017Ā ā One rally over a few months2021Ā ā Market pushed to 64K in the first 5 months, then a dip, then a second peak at 69K to complete distribution. The process took almostĀ one year2025Ā ā Will take longer withĀ three waves:109K (Dec last year)124K (this year)Remaining third wave ā above 125K
Institutions and ETFs
Institutions hold roughlyĀ 16%, whileĀ 65.79% is in the hands of individuals, whales, and market makers.
This meansĀ real control is not with institutions; itās with them .
āļø I hope this post adds value and gives you useful insights š
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
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