Kalshi

Kalshi, the regulated prediction market platform, has secured a $185 million investment round at a $2 billion valuation, positioning itself as a leading rival to Polymarket. The raise, first reported by The Wall Street Journal, was led by Paradigm with additional support from Sequoia Capital, Multicoin Capital, and other prominent investors.CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour confirmed that the newly raised funds will be used to bolster Kalshi’s technology infrastructure and expand its presence across retail brokerages. Currently, Kalshi’s markets are integrated with Robinhood and Webull, with more platforms expected to come online soon.
User and Market Growth Explode
Kalshi’s momentum has accelerated rapidly over the past 12 months. The platform has grown its trading volume 100-fold, increased its user base 10x, and quintupled its number of active markets. These gains coincide with key regulatory and legal victories, including a landmark U.S. federal court decision permitting trading on election outcomes, overturning a century-old prohibition.
This breakthrough followed a legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which had challenged Kalshi's political event contracts as potential gambling instruments. In May 2025, the CFTC dropped its appeal, clearing the path for Kalshi to offer election-related markets legally in the United States.
Political Market Momentum and Strategic Backing
Kalshi's success during the 2024 U.S. election cycle underlines its potential. It reported over $875 million in political market trading volume and more than 16 million trades in the NYC mayoral primary alone. The momentum has attracted high-profile backing. In January, Donald Trump Jr. joined the company as a senior advisor, highlighting Kalshi’s growing influence at the intersection of politics, finance, and crypto.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket: Regulatory Advantage
While Polymarket has dominated in open interest—reportedly just under $600 million—Kalshi now leads in the number of active markets, per data from Polymarket Analytics. Crucially, Polymarket lacks U.S. regulatory licensing, whereas Kalshi operates under full compliance, offering a clear advantage in institutional trust and retail adoption.
Polymarket remains strong in election prediction markets, with its U.S. presidential market exceeding $3 billion in volume. However, Kalshi’s regulated structure may give it the edge for broader, mainstream financial integration.
Crypto Integration and Institutional Focus
Kalshi is also targeting crypto-native traders with a new ZeroHash partnership that allows deposits in Bitcoin, Solana, Worldcoin, and USDC. This crypto integration positions the platform to tap into a large user base already familiar with decentralized finance and tokenized assets.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Kalshi accounted for 79% of all sports prediction trading volume during March and early April 2025, a sign of its growing dominance beyond politics.
Final Thoughts
Kalshi’s $185 million raise and its resulting $2 billion valuation represent a pivotal moment in the evolution of regulated event-driven markets. With a strong legal framework, growing user base, and crypto-friendly features, Kalshi is emerging as a powerful force in the prediction market space—one that may eventually outpace unregulated competitors like Polymarket.
As prediction markets gain traction among both traditional and crypto investors, Kalshi's regulated and strategically aggressive approach could set a new standard for the industry.
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#Kalshi #Polymarket $BTC

Markets are seeing relief as a result of the US-China trade deal in Geneva. This has led critics to downgrade the chances of a US recession, which now stands at 40%.
Earlier today, the US-China agreed to relax tariffs for another 90 days. Current forecast market data shows that the likelihood of the US entering a recession in 2025 has fallen to its lowest level in months.

Compared to the 69.7% odds registered on the Kulshi marketplace earlier this month, these odds have now come down to 40%.
Did US Recession Avert With US-China Tariff Pause?
In a recent post on X, market commentator The Cubic Letter highlighted Kalashi's data on the likelihood of the US entering a recession in 2025.

The two sides have eased US-China tariff tensions by agreeing to a 90-day tariff easing plan.

As part of the deal, the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China will cut its tariffs on American products from 125 percent to just 10 percent.
It is important to note that this update came during the high-level talks in Geneva, where US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant led the US delegation. China's Vice Premier, He Lifeng, represented Beijing.
Besant affirmed that the two nations no longer seek economic dualism and instead focus on building a balanced trade relationship.

He noted that previous tariffs had effectively acted as a barrier, hurting trade on both sides. The US-China trade deal marks a significant shift from this hardline stance.
Shortly after the news broke, #Kalshi Data showed that the probability of a 2025 U.S. recession fell by about 2 percentage points to 43%.

At the start of the year, data showed the odds of a recession at 71%, reflecting deep concerns over inflation, supply chain disruptions and global uncertainty.
Mark Zindi, chief economist at Moody's, echoed that concern. Zandi warned of a possible US recession that led to significant crypto price declines earlier in the month.
Crypto Market Reaction to US-China Trade Deal
Financial markets responded with significant optimism. The Dow Jones and the Nasdaq made modest gains, while the price of $BTC surpassed $105,000.

At the time of writing, the top coin was changing hands at $102,894 on top of a slight 1.03% slip-off.

Bullish momentum is still intact with the coin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 and price trading above the 50-SMA.

The market outlook has fueled renewed optimism around trade and global economic stability in general.

As trade tensions ease, institutional and retail investors appear more willing to take on risk.
With global sentiment improving, attention is now focused on how this momentum will shape future policy meetings and whether more countries will pursue similar aid-for-trade efforts.

#china #US #Market_Update #CryptoNewss