October 23, 2025 — Hopes for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of the year might be more dream than reality, says Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz — unless, of course, “some crazy stuff” happens.
Speaking with CNBC on Wednesday, Novogratz poured a dose of realism into the recent wave of bullish predictions from crypto executives.
“The end of the year is only two and a half months away,” he said. “There would have to be a heck of a lot of crazy stuff to really get that kind of momentum.”
At press time, Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $107,649, according to CoinMarketCap — meaning it would need to rally more than 130% in less than 10 weeks to reach that milestone.
🧭 “$100,000 Should Hold” — The Psychological Floor
Despite cooling the hype, Novogratz still sees Bitcoin as fundamentally strong.
He believes $100,000 — a level first broken in December 2024 after Donald Trump’s reelection — should act as a solid floor for the asset.
“In a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin should hold around $100,000 — or somewhere close to that should be the downside,” he said.
Bitcoin briefly tested that area on October 10, when Trump’s 100% tariffs on China sent markets tumbling to $102,000, before rebounding quickly — a sign of deep liquidity and strong investor conviction.
⚡ When $125,000 Breaks, the Real Rally Begins
For upside momentum, Novogratz pointed to $125,000 as the critical breakout zone — Bitcoin’s recent all-time high on October 5.
“On the upside, you don’t really accelerate until you take out $125K,” he noted.
“The most likely outlook is we stay between 100 and 120 or 125 — unless we take out the top side.”
According to him, two major catalysts could fuel such a move:
Trump pressuring the Federal Reserve into early policy shifts.The passage of the CLARITY Act, the long-awaited crypto market structure bill.
Either event could ignite new inflows and spark the next wave of institutional adoption.
💵 The Fed Factor: Market Waiting on Cuts
The Federal Reserve remains the elephant in the room. After its first rate cut of 2025 in September, traders now expect another at the October 29 meeting — with 96.7% odds, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Lower rates historically boost risk assets like Bitcoin, but macro uncertainty continues to dictate short-term sentiment.
Beyond Year-End Predictions
While outspoken bulls such as Tom Lee (BitMine) and Arthur Hayes (BitMEX) still see Bitcoin hitting $200K–$250K by year-end, not everyone agrees the timing matters.
Crypto analyst PlanC argued that obsessing over a year-end peak misses the point entirely:
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year doesn’t understand statistics or probability.”
For many long-term investors, the focus isn’t on when Bitcoin hits its next high — but how policy, liquidity, and adoption shape its path there.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s climb to $250K in 2025 isn’t impossible — just improbable without a perfect storm of catalysts.
Novogratz’s perspective captures the current market reality: a balance of optimism and restraint, where $100K acts as support, $125K as resistance, and everything else depends on how global politics and policy evolve.
As he put it best:
“Unless something crazy happens… we’re probably just going sideways — until we don’t.”
#cryptonews #BullRunAhead #writetoearn $BTC