BTC hovers near $106K with bullish MACD, low mainstream hype, and US-China trade progress fueling upside potential
Bitcoin (BTC) enters the week trading near $104,300, with traders and analysts pointing to multiple catalysts for continued bullish momentum — including a rare MACD crossover, reduced US-China trade tensions, and looming CPI and PPI inflation data.
1. Bitcoin MACD Cross Signals Major Bull Run Potential
A bullish crossover on Bitcoin’s weekly MACD indicator is drawing comparisons to the October 2024 breakout.
Popular analyst Moustache called it the "biggest signal" BTC bulls could ask for, historically marking major price surges.
BTC hit $105,706 on Bitstamp during early Wall Street hours, showing strength but facing resistance around $106,000.
2. Bitcoin Weekly Close Misses Key Breakout Level
BTC closed last week around $104,100, just short of the $104,500 breakout threshold, per Rekt Capital.
Analysts suggest watching for bullish divergence — where price forms lower lows while RSI forms higher lows — as a confirmation signal.
Despite the close, price discovery above $109,800 remains on the table if momentum continues.
3. US-China Tariff Deal and CPI Data to Drive Market Volatility
A 90-day tariff reduction to 10% between the U.S. and China begins May 14, sparking optimism across risk assets.
Traders await April CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data, which could influence Fed rate cut odds.
The Kobeissi Letter noted market reactions were muted due to the lack of direct commentary from President Trump, keeping uncertainty elevated.
FedWatch Tool: Less than 15% chance of a June cut; ~50% for July.
4. Crypto Market Sentiment Remains Cautiously Bullish
Despite BTC nearing all-time highs, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 70 (Greed) — lower than at $94K in April (72).
This subdued sentiment may indicate healthier, more sustainable price growth, with retail still mostly on the sidelines.
Google Trends for “Bitcoin” remain near 5-year lows, despite price strength — signaling a lack of mainstream retail euphoria.
5. 98% of BTC in Profit Raises Smart Distribution Risk
CryptoQuant notes that over 98% of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, a condition historically linked to late-stage bull runs.
Analyst Kripto Mevsimi warns that long-term holders may start derisking, while newer entrants chase the rally, creating a sentiment mismatch.
So far, buy-side and sell-side pressure remains balanced, suggesting no immediate mass exit risk.
Outlook: BTC Eyes Breakout, but Volatility Likely
With BTC just 4.8% shy of its ATH ($109,800), upcoming macro events, continued technical strength, and a low-greed environment suggest Bitcoin could rally further — possibly toward the $150,000 target cited by analysts — if key resistance levels break and inflation data surprises to the downside.
