According to Odaily Planet Daily, the United States will announce the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) tonight. The market expects a month-on-month increase of 0.1% for April PCE, with the year-on-year growth rate falling from 2.3% to 2.2%.
The core PCE month-on-month growth rate is expected to be 0.1%, with the year-on-year growth rate remaining at 2.6%. The inflation effect of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is beginning to permeate the U.S. economy. Most economists predict that even if tariffs are relaxed, inflation may rebound to 3%.
The U.S. core PCE has remained in the range of 2.8%-2.6% for six consecutive months, and the Federal Reserve's window for interest rate cuts has closed. The interest rate futures market shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped from 68% to 47%.