According to Jinshi Data, for several months, Fed policymakers have wanted more clarity on fiscal and trade policies and economic responses before taking further action on interest rates. Over the past month, this cautious stance has prompted traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut at the June meeting, with the market expecting the policy pause to continue until the July meeting. However, futures market positions show that the probability of a rate cut before the end of September is still slightly above 50%. This reflects a bet on a clearer situation in the next four months: either slowing inflation paves the way for policy easing, or a worsening economy forces the Fed to increase stimulus.