TradingShot

First of all allow me to begin by saying this: IT IS NEVER FUN to call market tops. Especially on long-term charts, especially on Bitcoin/ crypto. And the reason is that, usually it violently traps most people in. Either for a long time or until they lose all capital. And nobody should take joy in this and as chief analyst here at Tradingshot, I am no exception.
Regardless of that, our thesis here has been pretty simple and for a long time we've been calling for an October exit, as that was when the 4-year Cycle Theory suggested the Bull Cycle would top. I personally hope I am wrong but in all my decades of investing, I learned that 'hope' doesn't get you far here, quite the contrary it teaches you brutal (and often very expensive lessons). The hard facts and historical evidence, point to a new Bear Cycle. And we will keep presenting the charts, the empirical evidence no matter how many followers we lose or how many negative comments we see as they mean nothing to us. Profit making only does.
Now that I got this out of the way, let's see what other key levels Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit. Yesterday's aggressive decline saw the market making a Low marginally below the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the 3-year Channel Up. Essentially that has been the dominant pattern of the whole Bull Cycle. BTC already closed below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last week, which has historically been a Bear Cycle confirmation, already lost the basic structure of its Bull Cycle rallies by breaking way below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous Higher Low and now faces with the complete breakdown of the pattern - crossing below its bottom.
Needless to say, if BTC closes the week below it, selling could accelerate, with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), being the market's next long-term Support, where a counter-trend bounce could be possible.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since the October 07 High with both its Bearish Leg so far declining by -27.50% each.
As the 1D RSI is forming Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, i.e. a Bullish Divergence similar to October 11, it is possible to see a short-term bounce to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again (where the price got rejected on October 27), before it completes the -27.50% Bearish Leg projection.
The medium-term Target remains 2650.
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#Ethereum #ETH #ETHUSDT #ETHUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed last week below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 06 2023. Since that break-out, the 1W MA50 had been tested and held on 3 major occasions within the Bull Cycle, providing the most optimal mid-Cycle entries during those 2.5 years.
What's even more important than this time distance, is the fact that every 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50 has always marked/ confirmed the start of the new Bear Cycle historically. This is something that we've presented to you and discussed numerous times this year, as we were analyzing BTC's 4-year Cycle theory and why October was the most likely Cycle Top candidate time-wise.
This time we are looking at the previous Cycle more specifically, due to the strong similarities so far leading to the current Top. First of all the end-of-Cycle rallies on both started after a clear test and rebound on the 1W MA50. At the same time, the both displayed Higher Highs, against the 1W RSI's Lower Highs, which is a huge Bearish Divergence and the first strong indication that the Cycle Top may be forming.
The Cycle Top on both came when the 1W RSIs were 70.00. Also the 1W MA50 break-out took place around the 0.382 Fibonacci level from the last test/ rebound. As you may realize, there is a high degree of symmetry here both price-wise and in terms of RSI. If that continues, we can expect the Bear Cycle bottom to be at least on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $55000.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit $96000 today for the first time in 6 months (since May 07). For a long time we presented evidence (spearheaded by the 4-year Cycle) of why October was a strong candidate for a market top and so far this continuous correction validates all the data.
Today we circle back to an old favorite of ours, the GOLDBTC ratio. During the previous Bull Cycle, a Double Bottom on that ratio was what confirmed the start of BTC's 2022 Bear Cycle. On the current Cycle, we had this Double Bottom in August and since then, the GOLDBTC ratio has been rising.
Even on previous Cycles, a rise on this ratio always coincided with a BTC Bear Cycle. Based on that evidence too, the next Bitcoin Bear Cycle should be over before 2026 ends.
As a side-note for investors, keep in mind that a rise on the GOLDBTC ratio doesn't necessarily mean that Gold will rise while only Bitcoin falls. Both can fall at the same time, the ratio highlights pace, it just indicates that Gold can also decline in value but less aggressively than Bitcoin.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Hyperliquid (HYPEUSD) has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, a highly symmetrical structure that is has completed its Right Shoulder. At the same time, a Channel Down has emerged that is aiming for a -43.87% decline on the current Bearish Leg, similar to the previous one, targeting $30.00 short-term.
The H&S long-term Target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which as you can see matches the 0.618 Fib from the April 07 bottom. That gives a $19.00 Target.
Notice the huge 1D RSI Bearish Divergence of Lower Highs since May 25, which further strengthens the long-term bearish trend.
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#Hyperliquid #hype #hypeusd #hypeusdt #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) recently broke below the $100000 level for the first time since June and is currently on a short rebound. It has turned however all major MAs both the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) into Resistances, so the downtrend remains.
By doing so, we can see a highly symmetric pattern emerging, the inverse of the April - August uptrend. Following the (nearly) October 06 Double Top, the symmetrical downtrend has been testing and respecting all subsequent Support levels (so far Support 1 and 2), filling at the same time all Fibonacci gaps. See how accurately those Fibs formed key demand levels during the uptrend.
As a result, if this symmetry continues to hold, we can expect BTC to trade sideways for another month between Support 2 (Fib 0.5) and $110000 (roughly) before making the next leg down. Such price behavior typically confuses market participants and traps traders who stick to the former trend and haven't adapted yet.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Solana (SOLUSD) closed last week below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 28 2025. This is an extension of the downtrend that started following the September 15 High, which took place right below the Resistance Zone that started back on the November 2021 Cycle Top.
This is a critical Resistance as it rejected the price another 2 times during this Bull Cycle, with the most recent causing the January - April correction to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Given the huge 1W RSI Bearish Divergence for almost 2 years now (Lower Highs), we expect last week's closing below the 1W MA50 to initiate the bearish extension towards the 1W MA200 (at least) again. Our Target is $105.00.
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#Solana⁩ #sol #SOLUSD #SOLUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed last week above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) even though it broke below it during the day.
Since the March 13 2023 break-out above the 1W MA50, this is the 4th time that BTC breaks below it but manages to close the 1W candle above it. All of those times (including the additional one of September 11 2023), marked market bottoms, Higher Lows for the 3-year Channel Up and initiated the Bull Cycle's strong rallies.
However every rally has been weaker and since the first one topped in March 2024, we have a huger Bearish Divergence on the 1W RSI of Lower Highs against BTC's Higher Highs, showcasing loss of strength for the trend. A natural feat however, as the Bull Cycle tends to be stronger on its start as it rebounds violently from the market bottom and less strong towards the end as it matures and big positions already start to take profits.
But is this the end of the Cycle? The 4-year Cycle Theory, the DXY bottoming, the 1W RSI Bearish Divergence among others, all say 'yes'. But the Bear Cycle can only be technically confirmed when the market closes that 1W candle below its 1W MA50 and so far it hasn't. Is that enough to rely your strategy on from this point onwards?
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

XRP (XRPUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up ever since the March 09 2020 bottom of the COVID flash crash. Even though the recent Bull Cycle didn't hit the pattern's Top (Higher Highs), signs have emerged that the new Bear Cycle may have started.
The most obvious of those are the break (and closing) below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Last month's flash crash even touched the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) before immediately recovering.
Most importantly, XRP already filled the 2.5 Fibonacci extension level with its July 14 2025 All Time High (ATH), which is exactly where the High of the previous Cycle was priced (April 12 2021). What followed afterwards, especially when it closed a week below the 1W MA50 (November 29 2021) is very similar to what has been taking place in the past 3 months (especially with the 1W MA50 break 30 days ago) and the similarities between the 1W RSI patterns further justify it.
As a result, since the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed on the 1M MA100 (red trend-line) and just below its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, we expect the current to do the same and target $0.9000 (Fib 0.618). An additional indicator that may help at identifying the bottom (hence a good level to start buying again), is when the 1W RSI breaks below its 30.00 oversold barrier.
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#xrp #XRPUSD #XRPUSDT #Ripple #signals

It is one of the oldest charts around. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) vs U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). And perhaps one of the most accurate or to phrase it better, one of the most informative.
As you can see, every time the DXY (black trend-line) bottoms and rebounds (green Arcs), BTC tops and corrects (red Arcs), initiating its Bear Cycle.
Right now the news are far from favorable for Bitcoin's Bull Cycle case as the Dollar has broken above the previous Lower High and continues to rebound. That's a potential bottom, hence high probabilities for BTC to start a new Bear Cycle.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) just hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 4 months since it broke above it on the week of July 07 2025. This pattern looks very similar to the 1W tests after the March 11 2025 and November 08 2021 Highs (latter as also a Cycle Top).
In both cases the 1W MA50 failed to hold as a Support (did also the same on the Jan 13 2025 test) and the price declined further completing -48% and -52% total drops respectively.
As a result, there are high probabilities currently for ETH to extend its decline by at least -48%, in which case it may reach $2600.
Based on the 1W RSI, the most probably level for a bounce is the 38.50 (RSI) level, which is the Symmetrical Support that initiated the rebounds of September 02 2024 and January 24 2022. The September 18 2023 and November 07 2022 Lows also came very close to it and rebounded.
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Sui (SUIUSD) has established a Channel Down on the 1W time-frame, trading under Lower Highs since the December 30 2024 High. The Bull Cycle got invalidated on September 22 2025 when the price broke below the inner Higher Lows trend-line (dashed) and this week may confirm the new Bear Cycle as it will most likely close a 1W candle below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
We expect the current decline to repeat at least the -68.06% drop of the first Bearish Leg of the pattern and targe 1.4320.
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#sui #SUIUSDT #suiusd #signals #SUI🔥

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) could be entering a new Bear Cycle and as we've mentioned a few times recently, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) will play a big part at deciding that. This is basically the level that BTC is testing right now.
What may seem surprising to some, is that while Bitcoin has been correcting, the stock market (S&P500 illustrated by the black trend-line) has been rising making All Time High (ATH) after All Time High. This is not uncommon towards the end of Bull Cycles and has been particularly relevant during the Top of the previous (2021) Cycle.
As you can see, Bitcoin topped 7 weeks before stocks did, as we witnessed heavy profit taking and rotation of those (extraordinary) crypto gains towards stocks. Even the 1W RSI Lower Highs structure is similar between 2021 and 2025. The 4-year Cycle Theory in full confirmation (so far).
If the pattern plays out the exact same way time-wise as in 2021 (often it doesn't), we should be expecting stocks to top around the week of November 24. As for Bitcoin's trend after, following the 2022 blueprint wouldn't be unreasonable at all, as a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA50 would open the way to a 1W MA100 (green trend-line) test, multiple months of ranged price action between the two and then violent crash towards the 1M MA100 (red trend-line).
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed October on a -3.89% loss, marking only the second red October since 2018 (-3.83%) and the worst since 2014 (-12.95%). This comes against the popularized 'Uptober' moniker, which relates to BTC's historically strong gains for this month.
So what's next? Things may get even worse if BTC repeats the Jan - Feb 2025 fractal and breaks below its current Higher Lows trend-line. As you can see, since the August 14 2025 High, the market has been on a similar pattern as December 2024 - February 2025.
Right now we are on the rejection made on the Lower Highs 2 trend-line (blue circle) on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. With the first Lower Highs 2 rejection being similar among the two fractals (around -17%), we can expect an equally symmetrical sell-off if the Higher Lows break.
On February 24 2025, that break-out completed a -32% fall from its All Time High (ATH) just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. If the Higher Lows break-out does happen on the current sequence as well, we may see another -32% decline, which this time is exactly on the 2.0 Fib ext. This time we have the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) to be mindful of, where we can expect contact to be made around $87000.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Chainlink (LINKUSD) has been steadily rising within a Channel Up during this Bull Cycle but on the recent August 18 2025 High, it failed to make a Higher High and got rejected instead.
The Channel Up seems to have transitioned into a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, while the 1W RSI has been on a Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs trend-line against the price's Higher Highs).
We saw a similar H&S forming at the end of the previous Bull Cycle (2021), which essentially paved the way to the 2022 Bear Cycle. Symmetrically it appears to also work quite well as right now we are on a similar spot (1W MA50, blue trend-line) as November 2021.
The two Bear Cycles of LINK declined by -88.90% and -90.00% respectively. As a result, if history repeats, we are looking at a potential bottom at at least $3.500 (-88.90%).
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#LINK #Chainlink #LINKUSD #LINKUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to be under heavy pressure in the past 4 weeks since the October 06 All Time High (ATH) and finds itself battling to hold the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. That trend-line has been basically the Support of this Bull Cycle since March 2023, and acted as the most optimal long-term buy level.
Has the Bull Cycle ended?
However this Bull Cycle may have very well come to an end already as the 1W RSI has been long exhibiting the same kind of bearish pattern (Lower Highs trend-line), while also having completed the 4-year Cycle, that all previous Bull Cycles formed on their respective tops. This is a huge Bearish Divergence formation as it goes against the price's Higher Highs, indicating trend exhaustion.
As you can see that 1 RSI Lower Highs trend-line formed the November 2021, December 2017 and December 2013 Cycle Tops. Even worse, the current Lower Highs trend-line has been going on since the March 11 2024 High. If BTC closes a 1W candle below its 1W MA50, it has greater probabilities to confirm the start of the new Bear Cycle as all previous ones did on such break-out.
If yes, how much can it drop?
Now, it might not be too relevant at this time yet, but as far as how low the Bear Cycle can go to before it bottoms, there are three potential levels of interest where long-term investors can Dollar Cost Average (DCA).
The January 2015 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous bottom. The last Bear Cycle has its bottom below the 1W MA200 and on the next Fib in line, the 0.5 level. The decline on each Bear Cycle that followed decelerated and was less than the previous (-86.70% to -84.19% to -77.22%).
If the new Bear Cycle has already started then the first level for a potential bottom is again the 0.382 Fib around $58000 where contact may potentially be made with the 1W MA200 as well. If it follows the previous Bear Cycle and bottoms on the 0.5 Fib, it will also be below the 1W MA200 around $45000. If on the other hand it goes a Fib level further, as the last two Cycles did, we are looking at the 0.618 Fib as a potential strong bottom candidate around $35000. That will also be a -70.76% decline from the Top, which will be -7% less than the previous Bear Cycle, which is also the difference that the 2022 Bear Cycle had from the 2018 one.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Cardano (ADAUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up every since its December 26 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. That was also the time the 1W RSI has been at its lowest (hitting 30.00). The most recent bullish signal has been the 1W Golden Cross, its first ever.
Following this however, the price failed to break above the Lower Highs trend-line of the pattern's previous Higher High and got rejected back to its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line), which momentarily got broken on the October 10 flash crash. Still, the market instantly recovered and more importantly the 1W RSI found Support on its own 3-year Higher Lows Zone, which has been the most effective buy entry of the Bull Cycle.
As long as the price stays inside the Channel Up, the Bull Cycle remains alive. The confirmation of further upside, thus a new Bullish Leg, only comes technically if the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line again. If it does, we expect a Higher High on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (every Higher High seems to decline, 1.786 to 1.5 Fib) at $1.900. A 1W candle closing below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), most likely confirms the new Bear Cycle.
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#Cardano #ADA #ADAUSD #ADAUSDT #signals

Zcash (ZECUSD) marginally broke its May 10 2021 Cycle Top (orange trend-line) this week, rising by more than +800% in just 2 months.
Throughout its trading history, it has been tightly correlated with Litecoin (LTCUSD). It's not uncommon to see ZEC lead the way and then LTC (purple) follow. As this chart shows, whenever the two diverged, the one always caught up with the other and converged again.
Does this mean that LTC will eventually catch up to this enormous rally? If it does indeed, the Top of the previous Cycle that it 'has to' fill is at $415.
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#LTC #Litecoin #ZECUSD #signals #LTCUSDT

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 weeks and only days after it got rejected there. A 1D candle closing above it will be a strong bullish signal.
As BTC has been trading within a Megaphone pattern similar to the December 2024 - April 2025 one, a closing above the 1D MA50 might put the structure in a similar situation as April 17. As you can see that Megaphone also had a 1D MA50 rejection preceding the break-out and before that also, two Lower Lows near the 1W MA0 (red trend-line).
What it hasn't had (so far?) is a clear touch of the 1W MA50 (as on April 07) and a 1D MACD Higher Lows Bullish Divergence.
As a result, both scenarios are open for now. Until it closes above the 1D MA50, a 1W MA50 test remains possible around $104000. A closing above the 1D MA50 though strengthens the probability of a 1.1 Fibonacci extension rally at $128000.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FETUSD) has been trading within a 6.5-year Channel Up ever since its first trading day. The pattern's Bullish and Bearish Legs are very distinct and since its March 25 2024 All Time High (ATH), the market has been on the latest Bearish Leg (red Channel).
The 1W RSI just touched its 30.00 oversold barrier and last time it did so on a Bearish Leg (June 13 2022), the bottoming process (Higher Low) started towards the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the multi-year Channel Up.
As a result, FET may start its new Bullish Leg, as long as the overall market remains on a Bull Cycle. The short-term Target is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), with which contact can be made around $0.62000. Long-term (again if the Bull Cycle extends) we could see another +6430% Bullish Leg to $8.000.
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#FET #FetchAI #FETUSD #FETUSDT #signals