通骏Jun

Many people do not know that Ethereum's first smart contract was actually a prediction market.

This is not a coincidence; it is destiny. Because prediction markets are essentially humanity's first use of mathematics to rewrite gambling.


Traditional casinos bet on random events, such as rolling dice, spinning a roulette wheel, or buying lottery tickets.

The odds are set by the house, and the outcome relies on luck.

Mathematically, your expected return is always negative because the house takes a cut on every bet.

In simple terms, the casino's algorithm is designed to make you lose.


Prediction markets do not bet on luck but on knowledge.

For example, if you think Trump's chance of winning is 70%, but the market average believes it is 50%,

Recently watched @thecryptoskanda talk about x402, the topic is quite hot.
Indeed there is substance, but I want to say—the reality is more complex than what he wrote, and even more 'wild'.
x402 is essentially not an 'anonymous payment revolution', but rather Coinbase experimenting with the gray boundaries of trust structures.
It looks like a coin machine: input money, output results.
But once the facilitator layer is reused by gray production, BC, and overseas payment scenarios, it will replay the TRON model of those years.
Anonymity + automation + bot-to-bot is originally the perfect gray combination.
Skanda's example with Tron is not wrong, but he overlooked one point—

Gracy is right, just too gentle.
Reality is far harsher than she describes.
The primary market is not a "receding tide"; it is a complete break in the financing chain.
In Q2 2025, global crypto VC financing was only $1.97 billion, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 59%.
Hit a new low in five years. Pitchbook is too lazy to update the charts.
The DAT bubble has burst, not because there are no returns, but because no one is taking over.
"Tokenized equity" and "on-chain ETF" sound like financial innovations.
It's actually just a fake liquidity engineering—transferring from left hand to right hand.
The AI sector can't hold up anymore. Accounts like DeepSeek and Grok with these AI strategies.
This week, the entire line has been cut, with a pullback of 20-30%. The final shell layer of the narrative has also shattered.

🔍Snapshot
Mainstream coins have generally entered a high-frequency fluctuation phase, with prices repeatedly tugging and directions being vague. Both BTC and ETH are bouncing within a wide range, with support and resistance failing one after another, and the market lacks dominant logic in the short term. The risk of operations in the current phase far exceeds the returns, and one should focus on defense and patience.
🪙BTC Bitcoin
Continuing the wide-range 'picture door' fluctuations, the market is disorderly and highly volatile. In the current environment, any support and resistance are extremely fragile.
→ Strategy: No operations, no guessing direction, just wait and see.
🤔ETH Ethereum
Although there has been a significant increase, it is still operating within the range of fluctuations. The trend remains unchanged, synchronized with BTC.

🔍Snapshot
Mainstream currencies have fully entered the 'oscillation phase', with convergence of volatility and a lack of directional sense. BTC has been hovering close to support for a long time, and ETH is weakening in resonance with mainstream currencies. Market sentiment is becoming numb. There is very little room for short-term operations, and the larger trend has not yet restarted; currently, patience is key.
🪙BTC Bitcoin
The price has been flat for several days, with very little volatility. Repeated friction near support, the longer the time spent in horizontal consolidation, the higher the probability of a bearish outcome.
→ Operation suggestion: Mainly wait and see, only focus on the direction of the larger trend.
🤔ETH Ethereum
No structural signals, maintaining oscillation consistent with BTC. The larger oscillation may still continue.

🔍Snapshot
Mainstream coins collectively fell after reaching key resistance areas, with BTC and ETH experiencing technical pullbacks. The market rhythm has shifted from oscillation to short-term correction. SOL broke below the lower edge of the flag pattern, indicating a bearish bias on a smaller scale; gold and US stocks are stable, with risk appetite experiencing a temporary decline. The current market situation is defensive, awaiting structural rebalancing.
🪙BTC Bitcoin
After slightly declining after reaching the key resistance level yesterday, the trend is in line with expectations. The current large-scale position has been tested twice and has pulled back; if it breaks support again in this round, it will form a clearer weak structure.

🔍 Snapshot
Mainstream coins have overall returned to the oscillation range. BTC and ETH have both reached key resistance levels, and if a stagnation signal appears in the short term, there may be another pullback, but the larger structure has not broken. The market rhythm is slowing down, and volatility continues. Traders should focus on larger cycle rhythms and reduce frequent short-term attempts.
🪙 BTC Bitcoin
Smaller level rebound back to the oscillation range, the trend aligns with the previous judgment of 'high-level oscillation continuation'. The current price has reached key resistance, and if the stagnation signal is established, there is still room for short-term pullbacks.
→ Main Direction: The oscillation has not broken, short-term caution for pullbacks.

🔍Snapshot
The main cryptocurrencies continue to show a high-level oscillation pattern. BTC and ETH have not yet broken free from the convergence range, and the short-term direction is unclear, with funding becoming cautious. The U.S. stock market remains flat, while U.S. bonds and the dollar index rebound, suppressing risk asset sentiment; after nine consecutive days of gains, gold shows increased signs of topping. At this stage, maintaining a wait-and-see approach is the best solution.
🪙BTC Bitcoin
The night trading oscillation range continues to expand, but the trend structure still belongs to a small to medium level of fluctuation.
🔧Key Observations:
If the upper edge is blocked and falls, it may test the bottom again; if the lower edge finds support and rebounds, it is expected to start a new round of upward movement.

🔍Snapshot
The overall cryptocurrency market has entered a brief cooling period. Major coins have slightly retreated after consolidating at multi-day highs, but the overall structure remains intact. The funding situation is becoming cautious, and short-term trading sentiment has clearly converged. The current phase is mainly characterized by 'continued fluctuation, unclear direction'.
🪙BTC Bitcoin
A small level breakdown occurred, but the force is weak, still within the range of consolidation. The overall trend remains intact, continuing the fluctuation logic, and it is not advisable to anticipate direction prematurely.
🤔ETH Ethereum
After hitting support, the decline has stopped, but both bearish and rebound momentum are limited. Short-term observation is advised, waiting for structural repair.

From market sentiment to institutional research reports, this year's narrative has almost all revolved around 'rate cuts will bring liquidity' and 'ETFs will continue to attract capital.'
But I believe this optimistic expectation has reached its end. In the next three to six months, Bitcoin is more likely to enter a period of digestion and retracement.
1. Macro mismatch: high interest rates are not over, and rate cuts won't save risk assets
First, let's look at the fundamental macro logic. Bitcoin is a non-yielding asset with no cash flow; its valuation relies on liquidity and risk appetite. Currently, the environment is at its weakest stage for both: high interest rates and a strong dollar. Although the Federal Reserve has signaled a 'possible rate cut,' core inflation remains around 3%, and the economy has not weakened. The consensus is forming that high interest rates will persist longer. The market viewed rate cuts as a lifeline in the first half of the year, but the fact is, rate cuts do not equal market rescue. As high interest rates continue, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin rises, and institutions prefer to seek 5% returns on short-term debt rather than risking volatility. A strong dollar is also draining global liquidity, creating natural pressure on BTC priced in dollars.

In the past week, there have been ongoing disputes regarding Binance's price adjustments, liquidation mechanisms, and extreme prices for certain trading pairs.
In the short term, it looks like a technical event, but in the long term, this is a 'systemic risk self-test' for the entire cryptocurrency industry.
The market has actually seen clearly: Binance is not just an exchange, but a central node in the cryptocurrency financial system.
Once the central system encounters issues, all downstream ecosystems will be affected.
This is precisely the old saying in traditional finance—Too Big To Fail.
Binance's success comes from its remarkable integration capabilities: matching, clearing, custody, market-making, risk control, and token issuance, all within a closed loop.

On the evening of October 10, 2025, a piece of news ignited the entire market. U.S. President Trump announced that starting in November, all imported goods from China would be subject to a 100% tariff, while also tightening restrictions on software exports to China. This is not only a further escalation of the trade war but also a severe blow to the confidence of the global capital markets.

As soon as the news broke, U.S. stocks immediately plummeted, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 2.7% during trading.

High-risk asset sectors were hit first—Bitcoin plunged from a high of $126,000 to $105,000 within a few hours, a drop of over 15%. Mainstream coins such as Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin also collapsed across the board, with the entire cryptocurrency market evaporating nearly $800 billion in market value within a few hours.