Macro Outlook: New York Fed Inflation Forecast and Trumpās Tariff āFinal Battleā in Focus
Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are rising after a weak U.S. jobs report, while Trumpās sweeping new tariffs set to take effect August 7 have global markets bracing for impact.Rate Cut Bets Rise on Weak Jobs DataAccording to BlockBeats, softer U.S. jobs data has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates sooner than anticipated. Futures markets now show an increasing probability of a September cut as economic data continues to soften.Trumpās Tariff Red Line: August 7On August 7, Trumpās new tariffs will officially kick in:10% minimum tariff on all countries39% on Switzerland25% on IndiaSome countries may be able to negotiate reductions, but the White House has signaled this is the āfinal battleā in its trade strategy ā a move that could add to inflationary pressures.Key Economic Data This WeekMarkets will closely track U.S. macro releases:Monday: June factory ordersTuesday: July S&P Global Services PMI & ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIThursday: Initial jobless claims (week ending Aug. 2) & New York Fedās July 1-Year Inflation Forecast
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šØšØ Wall Street is Warming Up to Rate CutsāBGCrypto Be the Biggest Winnerāļøš±
Wall Streetās warming up to rate cuts. With inflation falling and Trump calling for a 300bps cut (claiming it would save the US economy $1 trillion annually and that Federal Reserve Chair James Powell is keeping rates high for āpolitical reasonsā), markets are eyeing a potential Fed pivot as soon as September. Goldman expects the first cut in Q3, while Kalshi gives a 40% chance of two cuts by year-end.
Thatās seriously bullish for crypto. Rate cuts typically boost risk assets; BTC jumped from $10K to $60K after 2020ās cuts. Now, with BTC holding above $118K and ETH near $3,700, a confirmed pivot could drive fresh liquidity into major tokens and top alts.
Keep an eye on the July 29ā30 FOMC meeting, August CPI, and the Jackson Hole Symposium. But the real trigger could be the September 16ā17 Fed meeting. If inflation keeps cooling, crypto could be the first to run. $BTC $ETH $BNB
Price has broken through the resistance area and retested it. You can open a long position at the support area. We may see a move toward the resistance area, and if it breaks, then a move toward the all-time high price.
The Market Is Leveraging Up on Small-Cap Coins: Altseason or a Bull Trap?
The chart below shows the relationship between market cap rank and the OI/Market Cap ratio (open interest relative to spot cap). A high ratio means derivatives are driving price action ā which increases the risk of a liquidation squeeze. Now focus on the bottom-right section (Rank 500+ tokens) like AGT, EPT, BDXN, KOM, FHE, GRCK. Their OI/Market Cap ratios are nearing or exceeding 1.0. ā This means the size of open leveraged positions is equal to or greater than their total spot market cap.
Current-season meme tokens like PUMP, FARTCOIN, MOODENG, SPK (ranked under 300) are also seeing high OI ratios of 0.6ā0.8. ā Market makers are using leverage to move prices efficiently with minimal capital. Mid-cap names (Rank 100ā300) like AI16Z, TRB, ORDI, GOAT, POPCAT are sitting around 0.3ā0.4. ā Indicating market makers havenāt gone full risk-on yet, and retail hasn't fully FOMO'd in.
Until the broader market pushes past 0.5 OI/Market Cap, a major crash isnāt necessarily imminent. For now, leverage is risingābut weāre not at the top yet.
$DOT DOT has dropped to the support area for a retest as expected. You can start accumulating at the support area. We may see some accumulation before the next move. The support and resistance levels remain the same.
Bitcoin Dominance reached a support area and then bounced back from it. This is a straightforward observation of price action, as the price recovered after hitting the support zone. Currently, all altcoins are experiencing a correction due to the rise in Bitcoin dominance. The resistance level is around 63%, and we might see a reversal from that point.
Optimism ($OP) has successfully retested the major weekly support zone (around $0.60ā$0.44) and is now showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. Price has broken above the descending trendline, signaling a shift in momentum. If this breakout holds, the next key target lies at TP1 ā $2.581, with further upside potential toward the $4.72 zone. Holding above the current structure supports a bullish continuation.
Bitcoin is consolidating within a descending triangle pattern and is currently trading above the horizontal demand zone.
The price is also moving inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating indecision in the market. A breakout or breakdown from the pattern will confirm the next directional move.
Ethereum (ETH) is continuing its upward movement and has gained over 33% in profit. The price is now approaching a key resistance area, and we will see if it can break above it. A break and close above $4,100 will drive the price towards the all-time high resistance level. Conversely, a rejection from this resistance area could lead the price back down to the $3,500 level.
XRP price sets eyes on new record highs amid steady digital asset fund inflows :
XRP sits on a 25% weekly gain, underpinned by steady institutional and retail demand.
XRP investment products saw a surge in capital inflow to $36 million last week as total net crypto fund inflows reached a record $4.4 billion.
A spike in whale-to-exchange transactions risks XRP's uptrend if investors reduce exposure for profit.
Ripple (XRP) is gaining momentum and closing in on its all-time high of $3.66 on Monday. The bullishĀ outlookĀ is supported by institutional demand, which continues to drive the expansion of spot and derivatives markets.Ā
Demand propels XRP price toward all-time highĀ
Digital investment products saw a significant increase in demand with inflows reaching $4.39 billion last week, according to a weekly CoinShares report released on Monday.
XRP-related financial products recorded a remarkable increase in the capital inflow, reaching $36 million, from posting outflows of $104 million the previous week. Their total year-to-date inflow currently stands at $267 million net with assets under management (AUM) averaging slightly above $2 billion.
Ethereum (ETH)Ā was the best-performingĀ cryptocurrencyĀ last week with inflows of $2.1 billion, slightly belowĀ Bitcoin's (BTC)Ā $2.2 billion.
"Digital asset investment products recorded their largest weekly inflows on record, totalling $4.39 billion, surpassing the previous peak of $4.27 billion set post-US election in December 2024," the CoinShares report states.
The surge in the XRP futures market's Open Interest (OI) underscores the soaring interest among traders. CoinGlass data shows that Open Interest, which represents the value of all futures and options contracts that have not been settled or closed, has expanded to $10.81 billion from a low of $3.54 billion in June. If traders continue to bet on XRP's price increasing to new record highs, OI could remain elevated in the upcoming weeks.
Technical outlook: XRP bulls take controlĀ
XRP price is inching closer to establishing new record highs above $3.66, supported by a strong technical structure and positive market sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reinforces the bullish outlook, flaunting a buy signal triggered on June 28.
In addition to XRP trading significantly above key moving averages, a recently confirmed Gold Cross pattern, formed when the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 100-day EMA, predisposes the token for the price discovery phase.
On the other hand, traders should be aware of the sudden increase in whale-to-exchange transactions, which exceeded 43,000 on July 11, according to data from CryptoQuant. There was another smaller increase in similar transactions, reaching 4,672 on Friday, followed by a subsequent decline to 2,339.Ā
Sharp increases in this metric can have a negative impact on the price of XRP, particularly if whales sell for profit as the token trades near its all-time high.Ā
A reversal from the current price level could result from profit-taking activities, sudden changes in market dynamics and sentiment, particularly with the implementation ofĀ United StatesĀ (US) President Donald Trump's higher tariffs on August 1.
Price Action: Downtrend Broken: A clear downtrend line has been broken, indicating the end of the recent bearish phase.
New Uptrend Forming: The price has formed a higher low and is currently pushing up in a new bullish channel, signaling potential upside continuation.
Key Resistance Ahead: Around the $0.35ā$0.40 level, which acted as resistance in the previous rally ā this will be a critical zone to watch.
Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index): Current RSI: 58.92 RSI is rising and approaching the overbought territory but still has room to go higher.
Bullish Signal: RSI has crossed above its moving average, supporting the upward price momentum.
Key Levels: Immediate Support: ~$0.28 ā recent breakout zone. Immediate Resistance: ~$0.35 ā previous high before the downtrend.
Breakout Target: If the price breaks $0.35 with volume, next target could be around $0.45ā$0.50.
Conclusion:
Bullish Reversal Confirmed ā the chart has broken out of the downtrend with increasing bullish momentum. Watch for Volume Confirmation ā to validate the new uptrend, keep an eye on increasing buying volume as price approaches $0.35.
Ideal for Short-Term Traders ā possible entry on dips toward $0.29ā$0.30 with targets near $0.35+.
$DOGE is gaining serious traction again,up 160% from its cycle low and following its classic pattern of explosive 150ā400% rallies followed by steep 70% corrections. That familiar rhythm seems to be unfolding once more.
Open interest on Hyperliquid has surged to $270M, and Thumzup Media just announced plans to add Doge to a $250M treasury.
Even institutional players are starting to take notice.
This feels bigger than a typical meme coin pump,$DOGE looks poised to remind the market why itās the original memecoin heavyweight.
Call it bold, but $1 might be a lot closer than people think.
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