大侠指导

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The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has hit a new low since April. The Federal Reserve's speculation on rate cuts in December has escalated.

As of the week ending November 22, data released early by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 216,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure, significantly lower than the market expectation of 225,000, and marking the lowest level in seven months since mid-April of this year. This unexpected performance breaks the market's expectation of a cooling job market, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions at the December meeting.

The number of initial jobless claims serves as a "high-frequency thermometer" for the U.S. labor market, with its fluctuations directly reflecting trends in corporate layoffs and the resilience of the job market. Data shows that this indicator has remained stable below 230,000 for several weeks, and even with recent reports of partial layoffs from companies like Verizon Communications and Amazon, there have been no signs of large-scale job cuts in the overall job market. Meanwhile, the number of continuing jobless claims has slightly risen to 1.96 million, but the increase is limited, indicating that re-employment channels for laid-off workers remain relatively smooth, and the fundamental demand for labor remains solid. This trend of "employers being cautious with layoffs and hiring" highlights that the U.S. economy still maintains strong employment support amidst uncertainty.

After the data release, global financial markets quickly began to restructure expectations. In the short term, the U.S. dollar index briefly rose by 0.2%, and gold prices fell by 0.3%, aligning with the traditional logic of "strong employment → delayed rate cuts." However, market sentiment quickly became polarized, compounded by conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showing overall economic stability and a decline in consumer spending. The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose, reaching as high as 85%.

The core of this data and expectation game lies in the Federal Reserve’s balancing act between "employment resilience" and "economic risks." The strength of the job market has diminished the urgency of "passive rate cuts to save the economy," especially against the backdrop of core inflation not yet fully retreating to the 2% target, providing policymakers with more room for observation. However, data showing a significant seven-month decline in consumer confidence and an unexpected decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in November suggests that the foundation for economic recovery is still not solid.

憋住了了，一直往上冲

跟那蚂蚁一样别磨叽了

$BTC

I opened an order at noon, neither big nor small, and went in empty.

I just don't believe he can keep rising, so I'll grab the pullback of over a thousand points and have some soup.

The big one is still to come, I'm always ready, bring it on, dead dog 🐕
$BTC

Mild Concerns Amidst a Rebound: Insights into the U.S. November ADP Employment Data Highlighting New Changes in the Labor Market

As an important leading indicator for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, the U.S. ADP employment data, known as the 'small non-farm', continues to stir global market nerves. The employment data released in November 2025 shows a distinct feature of 'overall stabilization and structural differentiation': the private sector added 42,000 jobs, not only reversing the decline seen in the previous two months but also exceeding the market expectation of 28,000, marking the largest increase since July, injecting a brief warmth into the sluggish labor market. However, signals such as uneven industry performance and cautious hiring by companies still reveal the deep-seated game in the U.S. labor market amidst economic transformation and policy adjustments.

From the data performance perspective, the 'better-than-expected' nature of the November ADP employment data has a distinct restorative attribute. The September data was revised to a reduction of 29,000, while the positive growth in October successfully ended this downturn, reflecting that the private sector labor market still possesses certain resilience. However, compared to the scale of hundreds of thousands of new jobs in the first half of this year, the increase of 42,000 jobs still seems mild. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson candidly stated, 'The recruitment scale has not yet returned to the levels seen at the beginning of the year, and the labor market is entering a phase of mild deceleration.' Notably, recent weekly employment estimates from ADP indicate that, as of the four weeks ending October 25, companies have averaged cuttings of over 11,000 positions per week, suggesting that the stability of the employment market remains in question, as high-frequency data diverges from monthly data.

The structural differentiation of industries is the most prominent highlight of this data, but it also conceals risks. Trade, transportation, and utilities have become absolute employment engines, adding 47,000 jobs, while the education and health services and financial activities sectors contributed 26,000 and 11,000 jobs respectively, effectively offsetting the contraction pressures from other industries. However, the decline in employment in knowledge-intensive and industrial sectors is evident: the information services sector reduced by 17,000 jobs, professional and business services shrank by 15,000, and manufacturing also saw a reduction of 3,000 jobs.

🐕 It's just a dog

Last night I opened a long position, and when I woke up, my good fortune came ☺️☺️☺️. I thought that after so many ups, going short wouldn't work, right? You can't fool me, even if it's your grandmother.

Let's follow the trend and go long; wouldn't that mean another wave of profits? But it still depends on accurately judging the trend. Let's warm up first and aim for 100,000 U.
$BTC

What's going on tonight, suddenly soaring up?

Can anyone tell me why? I've lost three thousand points on my long position 😭😭😭

Can I short now? $BTC

Eat less, how much? 😭😭😭$BTC

What the hell have I become, is this feeling heading towards a hundred thousand?

Don't come with our thoughts 😆

Brothers, being long and short at the same time is awesome, we can't keep doing it one-sidedly, catch the rebound and start with a wave to whet the appetite#隐私币生态普涨 $BTC

大饼在昨晚公开 86500上方最高箜顺利下行2500点，后半夜价格并没有进一步延续最低在83800附近后止步反弹，后半夜震荡收尾，当前早盘在此次到达86500-87500的压力区域，上午预计震荡为主
早盘86500-87500区域还是可以按照计划箜一下，刚才已经给出了市价的布局，没有看到的朋友，早盘在这个区域依然可箜$BTC

昨晚真的食言了，没有办法行情磨的跟逼一样根本就不行啊😫

马上50万u的目标就挑战成功了，就是这么的精致把握，只要方向做的好，哪有什么好点位干就完了

好行情不是天天有的，这样的行情就是必须要迅速和果断，不然就吃不到🥓🥓🥓$BTC #BinanceBlockchainWeek

鲍威尔在斯坦福大学纪念活动致辞 缅怀先贤坚守公共精神 回避货币政策议题

当地时间12月1日晚间，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔亮相斯坦福大学一场纪念活动并发表讲话。本次演讲聚焦已故前国务卿乔治·舒尔茨的生平与贡献，全程未涉及市场高度关注的通胀形势、就业市场或利率政策走向，契合美联储12月政策会议前的静默期要求。

鲍威尔在致辞中对乔治·舒尔茨的公共服务精神与个人品格给予高度赞誉，强调其务实的政策理念和坚定的价值追求为后世树立了典范。他特别援引舒尔茨的名言：“信任是这个领域的硬通货，而且只有在相互信任的地方，好事才有可能发生”，并指出舒尔茨的正直品格正是这种信任的坚实基础。

Still haven't closed a position of 300,000, if this order doesn't reach 500,000 I won't sleep and will keep staring at it.

Incredible 👍 it's a different feeling.

Definitely a huge crash, no bottom, no bottom, whether 80,000 is guaranteed or not is a matter.

Awesome, awesome, that's the feeling, must put 500,000 in my pocket

Can this needle 🪡 you guys say it can hold?

How much can I get?

What did I say? What did I say? Important things should be said three times.

The market will continue to decline, one order of 1 million won’t work, can’t two orders work? We must secure it.

What is the contract about? It’s about thrill and excitement, come on, get ready for it, let’s see how far you can fall.
$BTC #加密市场回调

US November ISM Manufacturing PMI: The contraction continues, the road to recovery for manufacturing is long

In November 2025, more signs of weakness emerged in the US manufacturing sector. The October ISM Manufacturing PMI released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) recorded 48.7, below the expected 49.4 and the previous value of 49.1. As of the end of November, the index remained at 48.7 with no signs of recovery, marking the 8th consecutive month that US manufacturing has been below the line of prosperity. This persistently low indicator not only reveals the current operational difficulties in US manufacturing but also reflects the intertwined development challenges of the industry under the influences of tariff policies, weak demand, and other factors.

The performance of sub-item data further exposes the deep-seated contradictions in the manufacturing sector. The difficulties in employment are particularly prominent, with the ISM report indicating that manufacturing employment has been in a contraction zone for the 9th consecutive month, with the employment index in October only at 4.

Who pays for the consumption on Sunday? Then let the dog make it up to me on Monday.

I woke up this morning to a downward trend; still, the same old saying: we should go with the flow, directly short, manage the stop loss well, and not worry about the take profit. 😆 Isn't that exciting?

Who keeps telling me that it's going to rise significantly? Take the profits when you can; you can't be greedy. To be honest, it still has to drop $BTC #ETH走势分析 .

Are you losing or gaining in the crypto circle?
Is the mad bull starting?! December 1st will determine the market trend for the next three months! Powell's speech is the lifeline for the crypto circle!
Damn! Next week, December 1st is crucial. This is the most important trading day of the year; Powell's speech will determine the direction for the next three months!
Three major bombs detonating simultaneously:
1. Powell's significant speech is just a few days before the FOMC meeting. The chance of a rate cut is already 87%, and a single sentence from him could turn the market upside down!
2. The Federal Reserve stops tapering. The three-year QT officially ends. Historical experience tells us: after the QT ended in 2019, altcoins entered a skyrocketing mode. This script may replay!
3. The world is easing; Japan, China, and Canada are already taking action. As long as Powell slightly relaxes, global liquidity will open the floodgates!
Two possible outcomes:
✅ Bullish scenario: Powell focuses on the deterioration of the labor market, hinting at continued rate cuts, and the crypto circle takes off!
❌ Bearish scenario: The old guy brings up inflation risks again and says to be cautious about rate cuts, and the market dives!
J's trading strategy:
• Reduce positions and watch before December 1st
• Wait for clear direction before taking action
• Chase the surge when key levels are broken
• Run decisively when support is broken
Remember: at this critical moment, it's better to miss out than to make a mistake. Staying alive is the most important thing!
Do you think Powell will hawkish or dovish this time? Share your predictions in the comments!
The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice; there are risks in the crypto circle, and investments should be made with caution.
Wishing everyone that the coins you buy are all value investments, and the coins you sell are all successful escapes.

Every family has its difficult scriptures to read, and there are sad things

70,000 students found me, and the road to flipping the account is still a bit bumpy

Make the right move, win a game; follow the right person, win a lifetime. Choosing the right guide is like boarding the express train to success, heading towards a bright future! #加密市场反弹 $BTC

I really don't know why you're messing around with the chicken? You're not playing by the rules anymore.

Damn you, seeing me win all the time means you have to break my ten-game winning streak, right? You have to make me lose, right?

Like an idiot, just wait for the next order, if I can't take you down, I won't call you Brother Hero $BTC #币安HODLer空投AT