汪萱说势

早盘11万的哆 如何？目前最高11400 3000多点空间 跟上及起飞#加密市场观察

早盘最低109500 最高也是反弹到了11300 汪萱布局的现价哆也是有1000多点空间 自信把握空间#广场热度值助燃心仪代币

Morning Strategy

Good morning, friends. In today's morning session, let's first review the core of yesterday's market: Bitcoin rebounded to around 112500 yesterday before falling again. At 5 AM, the market cycle was completed as expected, successfully reaching the 109500 point for a second test. Currently, various indicators on the market are in a recovery phase, and the market rhythm is clear and distinguishable.

What deserves more attention is market sentiment—previously, the bulls encountered liquidation twice in a row, and "talking bullish" has become the mindset of many investors at this moment. However, friends familiar with trading logic know that this extreme emotional panic often represents the best time for a rebound after an oversold situation. The market momentum brought by emotional recovery can often exceed expectations.

Therefore, the core idea for intraday operations is clear, mainly focusing on "buying on dips," with specific layouts as follows:

Current Price Entry: The current price of Bitcoin is quoted at 110000, and you can directly lay out long positions. The 109500 double-test support level serves as the risk bottom line, which is relatively safe;

Adding Positions Range: If the market slightly retraces to the 109200-109850 range, you can add positions accordingly to further average down your holding cost;

Target Price Levels: In the short term, we first look at 113500-114000. If this resistance level is broken, we can continue to look up to 116000. It is recommended to take profits in batches for safety.

After laying out in the morning session, everyone should focus on monitoring the stability of the support levels. #广场热度值助燃心仪代币

Last night, Ethereum reached a maximum of 3850, and I also provided everyone with a direct short at the peak of 3850. The lowest point last night was 3640, which met expectations with a space of 200. Follow along and take off #广场热度值助燃心仪代币

Trump's tariff declaration ignites a 'black swan' in the cryptocurrency market, with nearly $20 billion liquidated in a single day.

On October 11, after Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, the crypto market collapsed: Bitcoin fell over 17% in a day, Ethereum dropped over 20%, and smaller coins were halved, with a total liquidation amount reaching $19.1 billion, leaving 1.64 million people at a loss, with 90% being long positions.

High-leverage trading triggered a 'death spiral' as the core of the crash — excessive leverage in the early stages, combined with price fluctuations triggering concentrated force liquidations, created a vicious cycle. This crash once again confirms the high correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks, categorizing it as a high-risk asset, and the 'digital gold' narrative collapses on its own.
Analysis indicates that cryptocurrency prices have been dominated by traditional financial sentiment, compounded by signals from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government shutdown, and other factors, highlighting market vulnerability. Our country has clearly prohibited virtual currency trading, and participation in such trading is not protected by law #美国加征关税 .

3850 control is powerful! The waiting time was not in vain, and the fluctuation space of dozens of points just seized the opportunity. #币安HODLer空投WAL

Should we blame Trump for this wave of decline? We should simply thank him for the "mirror" he brought us.

With one drop, those air projects wrapped in the "hundreds of millions valuation" glamorous exterior all revealed their true nature—just a few million in trading volume can cause a 90% drop, and the so-called prosperity is merely a bubble built on data. This isn't a crash; it's clearly the market actively "de-scaling".

Low-quality projects are being eliminated, allowing the accumulated liquidity to be freed up and directed toward truly valuable targets. This turbulence is not a disaster; it is compelling the market to complete the purification of "removing the false to preserve the true," letting funds return from false stories to real value #美国加征关税

Bitcoin 'Black Swan' Assault! After a plunge of over 20,000 points, be careful not to fall into pitfalls in short-term operations

This morning at around 5 o'clock, Bitcoin's market experienced a 'frightening jump'—it dropped over 20,000 points in one night, briefly dipping to around 102,000; Ethereum also synchronized its drop to a low of 3,300. This plunge has directly become the biggest 'Black Swan' event of the year. More crucially, all long liquidity above 100,000 in the futures market has been completely swallowed by this decline, causing extreme panic in the market.

Technical signals are equally pessimistic: there are no signs of stopping the downward trend on the daily level, and the aftermath of the plunge continues to ferment; the MACD moving averages are consistently turning downward, and the volume bars are gradually shrinking, which indicates that the current market has not stabilized at all. Thinking about bottom-fishing now is highly likely to result in being 'stuck' by the market. Additionally, today is Saturday, so the short-term downward trend is likely to continue spreading. How the market will move afterward will be key to watch at the opening price on Sunday.

Therefore, the core of intra-day operations is just one: control risks during rebounds. If Bitcoin rebounds to the range of 113,200-113,800, or even touches 114,600, it is advisable to control positions in a timely manner; below, pay close attention to the range of 109,200-108,500, with further support seen around 107,000 #美国加征关税

Stop cursing Trump! This market crash is much worse than 'increased tariffs'

Recently, the market has been falling so drastically that it's bewildering. The news that 'Trump will impose a 100% tariff on China on November 1' has been spreading everywhere, yet a thorough search on Twitter yields no credible sources. Despite this baseless claim, it has directly crashed the market: stocks plummeted, cryptocurrencies fell through the floor, and countless people in the futures market faced liquidation and were left in tears.

It's not that Trump, the 'black swan', is causing trouble; it is essentially a blatant leverage harvesting! While everyone is focused on the tariff screenshots and cursing, they have forgotten about the 'tricks' in the futures market—now leveraging a hundred times is like a game. Many people think they can 'make big money with small capital' and dive headfirst into long leverage, isn't that just handing a 'harvest list' to market makers? As long as there is a vague negative signal, market makers can easily pull down prices, algorithmic trading immediately follows suit to sell off, and the chain reaction of liquidations cannot be stopped.

Moreover, compared to fake news, the 'old problems' of the U.S. economy pose a real hidden danger: the federal government shutdown has led to the inability to release key economic data, and the Federal Reserve has no reference for interest rate cuts; if they want to cut rates, they fear being accused of an impending economic collapse, and if they don't cut rates, they can't withstand poor employment and slow growth. Additionally, with challenges to the dollar's hegemony, infighting between the two parties, and risks from the fires of Venezuela and conflicts between Israel and Palestine, these are the 'real thunder' that could crush the market.

As for Trump's decisions, they have always been unpredictable, akin to 'randomly throwing punches'. For retail investors, don’t let rumors brainwash you and stubbornly hold onto fixed ideas; most of the news in the market is just 'fooling the naive', and data and capital battles are the real truth. It’s better to preserve your principal and stay alive than anything else, after all, opportunities are only given to those who last until the end.
#美国加征关税

The market of big pancakes has been trapped in a narrow range of fluctuations throughout the day, with limited volatility. The core reason is the approaching weekend, leading to a noticeable increase in market participants' wait-and-see sentiment. From the 4-hour chart, after briefly breaking the 120,000 mark yesterday, the price quickly rebounded above 121,000, indicating that the bearish forces have not formed an absolute strength; at the same time, the MACD indicator is gradually completing its repair, and the trading volume continues to decrease. All these signals point to a high probability of the subsequent market entering a consolidation phase, and short-term operations should revolve around the logic of fluctuation.

In terms of operations, key attention should be paid to the range of 122,200-122,700 above. If it touches near 123,300, one can consider placing short positions; below, we look towards the support zone of 121,000-120,500. Once the price approaches 119,200, one can consider placing long positions. #广场热度值助燃心仪代币

Market Review and Bottom-Hunting Strategy: After the bearish engulfing pattern breaks above, focus on these two key areas
Currently, the daily level 'bearish engulfing' pattern has been confirmed, and the volume in the controlling direction continues to expand, with a clear trend signal. Looking back at yesterday's market, the highest rebound was around 123700, and our controlling position set at 123500 also brought a wave of profit, which is a good timing.
Looking at the short-term trend, the price has broken below the previous triangular oscillation range, ultimately choosing to break through in the controlling direction, which completely aligns with our previous predictions. From an overall structural perspective, the controlling trend remains unchanged, and the volume bars of the MACD at the four-hour level are gradually lengthening, indicating that we are likely entering an accelerated controlling phase; rushing to bottom-hunt at this moment is clearly irrational.
Additionally, it is important to clarify that the rise in this round of market is essentially a continuation of the breakout from the W-bottom, and we are currently in a correction phase, with few safe bottom-hunting positions available. The core focus is on two key areas:
First, pay attention to the neck line of the W-bottom, as this position is a significant support for the previous market; if the price drops here for the first time, one can attempt a light position to bet on a short-term rebound;
The support below can be viewed in two sections: the first section is the range of 118000-117500, and the second section is around 116400; these two positions are both key points from the previous period, and when they first appear, one can also consider reversing positions.
As for the upper pressure, 121500-121800 is a key resistance zone in the short term; if the price rebounds here and faces pressure, it may instead continue the controlling strategy, looking down towards the support levels of 118000-117500 and even 116400. #加密市场回调

The bear market is coming strong. The short position arranged in the morning has several thousand points of space. Follow along and take off #币安八周年

I just love the tension in the cryptocurrency market! Afraid of volatility? Not at all~ Bitcoin and Ethereum are definitely standing at high points, with plenty of room for upward and downward operations. Don't hesitate too much, take a small position and savor it. First, let's pocket some of the benefits from this wave of market trends. #美联储降息预期升温

Tonight is a critical night in the cryptocurrency world! These two signals will directly determine the rise and fall

The cryptocurrency market is about to "face trial" tonight — key data coincides with speeches from Federal Reserve bigwigs, and the market is likely going to go crazy. If you don’t want to be swept away in the wave, you need to engrave the key points in your mind right now.

Data is the market's "electrocardiogram", and the Federal Reserve's speeches are the "life and death verdicts". Once it hits 8:30 PM, the show begins: on one side are the key data points that can reveal the employment market, and on the other side, the “three giants” of the Federal Reserve take turns to speak. Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are extremely sensitive to policy changes, are expected to jump around like they are on a bungee cord; anyone who dares to lose focus now might regret it tomorrow.

Key points to watch closely

1. 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims Data: This is the "employment health report" every Thursday, which simply shows how many people lost their jobs to claim benefits this week. A low number = jobs are easy to find = stable employment; a high number = many layoffs = cooling employment. Don’t underestimate this number; it directly influences whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates — if it suddenly skyrockets, the Federal Reserve might not raise rates, allowing the cryptocurrency market to breathe a sigh of relief since rate hikes would cause funds to flee from risky assets.

2. Big shots speaking in succession: 20:30 Powell (the captain), 20:35 Bowman (the hawk who loves rate hikes), and 00:45 Barkin (the strategist) will each speak, primarily addressing one issue: "Will interest rates rise in the future?"

If they dare to say "inflation is not under control, so we will continue to raise rates", the dollar will immediately rise, and Bitcoin will likely plummet;

If they relax and say "we can take a pause", the market will instantly come back to life, and mainstream coins will stabilize and rebound.

Survival operation guide

Tonight, keep a close eye on the initial claims data and Powell's words:

If the data is extremely high (employment is cooling) + Powell softens his tone (becomes dovish): Bitcoin and Ethereum might surge in the short term; if you want to play, try with a small amount, don’t go all in;

If the data looks good + Powell/Bowman still insist on rate hikes: quickly reduce your positions! If you are heavily invested and don’t cut now, it will be too late when the market drops.

Want to know how to combine technical analysis to seize opportunities? Follow me at @汪萱说势 for precise timing tips, and don’t become a victim of market harvesting! #美联储降息预期升温

Ether Market

The short-term pattern of Ether has clearly shown weakness. On the four-hour chart, the price rebounded to the previous upward trend line but failed to stabilize, triggering an accelerated decline, further confirming the strong position of the bears.

In terms of operation, rebounds can rely on key resistance levels to set up short positions: The first resistance zone focuses on 4380-4400. If the rebound strength is slightly strong, it can extend to around 4450, where is the core boundary of short-term long and short battles. Entering short positions requires signals indicating weakened rebound momentum.

The lower target looks at the 4280-4230 range first. This area is a support zone tested multiple times previously. There is a probability of a short-term stabilization rebound upon the first touch, providing an opportunity to take a counter position long, but strict control of the position is necessary to avoid risks of deep pullbacks after support breaks.

Overall, one must maintain a bearish mindset as the main focus, with long positions only as a game for short-term corrections. Before entering, one must wait for clear signals of stop-loss, and should not blindly try to catch the bottom. #美联储降息预期升温

Federal Reserve Rate Cut: The 'Sweet' and 'Risk' of Cryptocurrency

The Federal Reserve's September policy meeting has concluded, and a 25 basis point rate cut has arrived as expected. This decision, although supported by a vast majority of members, hides concerns about economic pressure. In the meeting minutes, 'the labor market remains robust' has quietly turned into 'employment growth is slowing,' with only 22,000 new jobs added in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, weak data that has become a key impetus for the rate cut. Even though inflation remains above the 2% target, the policy balance ultimately tilts toward stabilizing the economy.

For the cryptocurrency market, the rate cut is undoubtedly a 'shot in the arm' for liquidity. The decline in interest rates boosts the attractiveness of risk assets, and with channels such as Bitcoin spot ETFs improving, the flow of funds into cryptocurrency assets is increasingly smooth. On the day of the rate cut, the market capitalization surged by $80 billion. However, amidst the celebration, one must remain clear-headed: Bitcoin and Ethereum have already risen over 15% in recent months, and the positive news may lead to a 'pullback after expectation fulfillment,' similar trends were observed during the rate cut cycles of 2019 and 2020.

More noteworthy is the structural differentiation in the market. While Bitcoin continues to dominate market capitalization, Ethereum's annual growth rate has surpassed that of Bitcoin, and altcoins like Solana have risen over 20% in a single week, showcasing the cyclical characteristic of 'mainstream coins leading, altcoins following.' However, there are evident disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of rate cuts; half of the 19 committee members expect two more cuts before the end of the year, while the other half advocates for a slowdown or even a pause. This uncertainty may exacerbate price volatility.

For ordinary investors, the current fear and greed index has entered an extreme greed zone, with over $270 million in leveraged liquidations in the past 24 hours, highlighting the risks of blindly chasing highs. In the short term, one can seize the liquidity easing dividend, but it is essential to closely monitor the policy guidance from the dot plot and set stop-loss orders at critical price levels. In the medium to long term, cryptocurrency asset valuation is shifting from liquidity-driven to 'fundamentals + policy' pricing. Only by tracking economic data, regulatory dynamics, and changes in market structure can one maintain a foothold amidst volatility.

A rate cut is not a 'perpetual motion machine' for bull markets but is the beginning of a new round of market competition. Keeping a close eye on capital flows and policy signals is more important than following market sentiment. #FederalReserveRateCut #加密市场分化

October 9th Airdrop & Grab Guide

1. Claim Suggestion: Everyone should decide based on their own situation. A key reminder—amounts of 30U and below are not recommended for claiming, as the profit potential is quite limited!

2. Today's Small Doubt: Usually, there are warm-up airdrops even when busy. Today is neither a weekend, yet it seems to have been directly 'skipped'? Is it possible that Binance is kindly considering that everyone is just starting work and hasn't found their rhythm, hence the delay? Mr. An! The airdrop community is waiting, please make an update soon~

3. Recent Key Discovery: For first-come, first-served projects, even with a general background, the fewer the distribution amounts, the higher the profits each individual user can receive! Therefore, for these types of activities in the coming days, it's advisable for everyone to rush in to grab some quotas!

Grab Practical Pitfall Avoidance 4 Key Points

Time Calibration: Ensure that your phone's time is completely synchronized with the system time. Don't underestimate a few seconds of discrepancy, as it could lead you to miss the best opportunity!
Device Preparation: Try to use a phone that runs smoothly online (mainstream iPhone and Android models are fine, avoid old and laggy models); importantly, be careful not to charge while grabbing—overheating will directly slow down speed and affect grabbing efficiency.

Network Selection: Perform a pre-check before grabbing, and establish your network in advance (test whether data or WiFi is faster beforehand). After the pre-check, definitely do not switch networks, as this could easily trigger a secondary facial recognition check, directly delaying progress.

Operational Mindset: When it comes to the nine-grid verification stage, don't panic! The probability of succeeding in one operation is the highest. If the first attempt fails, the chances of succeeding in subsequent grabs will significantly decrease. #币安HODLer空投XPL

Yesterday's market staged a "high swing and drop" performance, briefly rebounding to around 1240 before once again falling back to yesterday's low point. The signals of insufficient bullish momentum have become very obvious. What is even more noteworthy is that the current market trajectory highly replicates the upward trend seen at the beginning of the year, combined with the emerging FOMO sentiment on-chain, the interaction transfer of attention and liquidity has further exacerbated the uncertainty of short-term volatility.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour MACD moving averages continue to run downward, and the bearish volume bars show a gradual upward trend, indicating that the bearish pattern remains unchanged. Therefore, the intraday trading strategy still centers on "shorting on the rebound": positions can be established to short when rebounding to the 1223-1227 range and at the key resistance level of 1235, with lower targets sequentially looking at the 1210-1205 range, and further breakdown could extend to the 1192 support level. #BNBChainMeme热潮

The "big show" from the Federal Reserve is too exciting: a single sentence from a non-voting member caused a market crash, and the debate over interest rate cuts is heating up!

Who would have thought that a Federal Reserve official with "no voting rights this year" could set off such chaos in the U.S. stock market with just one sentence? On October 8, when Kashkari spoke, the Dow Jones dropped nearly 200 points instantly, and there was a wail of despair in the circle. But let's not panic just yet; this operation is essentially an early leak of the "argument live broadcast" within the Federal Reserve.

His core message is twofold: first, don't drop interest rates recklessly, or else prices could soar; second, the U.S. economy is currently a "patient"—it can't run (slow growth) and is bloated (high inflation), a typical case of stagflation. This is no exaggeration; inflation is still far from the 2% target, with only 17,000 new jobs added in September, making job hunting harder than climbing to the sky. If interest rates are cut now, won't the prices of imported snacks and fuel go up again? Ordinary people are truly facing a situation of being "both poor and having to spend more."

Even more outrageous is that the U.S. government is still "slacking off"—it went on a shutdown on October 1, and key indicators like non-farm payroll data are all offline, which is equivalent to the Federal Reserve driving with its eyes closed. Yet the market remains particularly confident, saying the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is approaching 100%. On one hand, there's fear of inflation exploding, while on the other hand, there's concern about a cooling economy; the Federal Reserve is essentially "walking a tightrope."

So here’s the question: should they grit their teeth and cut rates to save the economy, or should they bear it and guard against inflation? How would you choose? #BNBChainMeme热潮