Let's a do a bit of a recap here: Pretty clear $120K is respected demand thus far for the market - Binance Spot CVD ticks up around $120K with buyers interest - Perps continually quoted bids around $120K with short positioning closing out overall (Perp CVD up & OI down + Price rebound)
Moving forward I think we set a new value area between current low & high ($126K - $120K)
Very much clear supply above $126K, may trade similarly to previous value area.
$BTC Seen a big amount of Open Interest enter over the past week.
$7B of OI got added which is about +19% of global OI added.
This is not entirely in line with the price which is up +13% during this timeframe.
Safe to assume there's been quite a bit of chasing by longs, especially since the $120K+ break.
It's not completely out of proportions but to get a sustainable run, I'd rather see OI come down slightly first. If it keeps running at this pace we risk putting getting overheated earlier.
Currently spot/ETF bid has been strong which has kept this rally going. But to sustain this in the short term, those also need to keep bidding.
Aggressive selling on that first push below 122s - into U.S cash session.
Shorts then unwinding all the way back up straight into the single prints as per the prev day profile which capped the move up. (passive asks - no one willing to step in and lift)
Expectation: 122 being a key local pivotal level - acceptance below then I'm leaning towards previous day and current day poor lows being traded down into 120s
HTF: 120k - 5 week comp value area high remains key - see previous tweet on timeline somewhere...
This was one of the best starting weeks in Q4 which BTC has ever seen.
As you can see, these upcoming weeks are generally pretty good for BTC in terms of seasonality. Good amount of intra-week volatility as well.
But I'll keep repeating that this is no guarantee for the future. Having said that, BTC has been pretty accurately following its averages the past 6 months so I'm keeping a eye on this.
Strong move by BTC after retesting the support band on the weekly timeframe. Took just a few weeks of consolidation but did its job and catapulted Bitcoin higher.