ETH monthly line top divergence, big cycle opens the transition from bull to bear for the final peak?
Daily rebound is weak Daily: ETH indicated risk the day before yesterday: the daily line needs to retest near the middle track, directly dropped to around 3900. Since the liquidation on 10.11, liquidity has severely decreased, making upward attacks very weak, while downward movements are quite smooth, reminiscent of the early year after Trump coin harvesting; Short-term ETH daily SKDJ has crossed death, with support at 3900 below. The interest rate meeting tonight and the meeting between China, the US, and South Korea are the most important short-term supports. A breakout above 4293 daily line for a 3rd wave rebound would be complete. If the news is favorable, there may be a surge for a few days; otherwise, it might turn around next week, with resistance above at 4300-4600;
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Tonight, the United States will release a series of employment data, and the probability of a rate cut has reached 94%! The data will impact the short-term trend, whether to continue the upward momentum or pull back before rising again!
At 20:30 tonight, the number of Challenger job cuts for November will be released in the U.S.; at 21:30, the initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 29 will be announced, with an expected value of 220,000.
In addition, at 23:00, the U.S. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for November and the U.S. Factory Orders Month-on-Month for September will also be released.
Although tonight's employment data is relatively important, the market is currently heavily betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. As of the time of writing, the probability of this event on Polymarket has reached 94%.
Trump and Musk are both calling for robots, the ALPHA valued at 2.56 million RICE robot AI can lay in ambush, yesterday it fluctuated and impacted the mid-track, as the market's enthusiasm for robots fermented, there is a chance to rise, doubling is not a big issue;
Japan's interest rate hike continues to ferment, and it is highly likely that an increase will occur in December. Japanese women have already gone abroad to sell themselves, and the small businesses are struggling and can only raise interest rates;
The market has also rebounded considerably, and this morning it was indicated that there might be a pullback. ETH has slightly shorted, watching for support at 3080 and the middle track;
The market is too strong, continuing to rise under the positive news from ADP last night. ETH is seeing continuous capital inflow, breaking through the resistance level of 3170 and aiming for 3200+, with a rebound from the bottom of over 500 points, a strong V-shaped reversal resulting in significant gains;
Currently, with the support of capital and expectations of interest rate cuts, ETH is expected to continue showing fluctuations and rebounds overall. Minor pullbacks do not change the larger trend, and after the second test on the daily chart, a SKDJ golden cross has formed;
The rebound space at the 4-hour level is already quite large, and the daily chart has reached the upper Bollinger band. We will see if it can push past the 3250 resistance, potentially pulling back before going up again. Support is at 3170, and if it breaks, we look at 3080-3000 for support;
The market is too strong, continuing to rise under the positive news from ADP last night. ETH is seeing continuous capital inflow, breaking through the resistance level of 3170 and aiming for 3200+, with a rebound from the bottom of over 500 points, a strong V-shaped reversal resulting in significant gains;
Currently, with the support of capital and expectations of interest rate cuts, ETH is expected to continue showing fluctuations and rebounds overall. Minor pullbacks do not change the larger trend, and after the second test on the daily chart, a SKDJ golden cross has formed;
The rebound space at the 4-hour level is already quite large, and the daily chart has reached the upper Bollinger band. We will see if it can push past the 3250 resistance, potentially pulling back before going up again. Support is at 3170, and if it breaks, we look at 3080-3000 for support;
The market is strong and sideways. Last night, funds directly entered the market with over a billion dollars. The second probe of the large bearish candlestick was directly countered, coupled with interest rate cut expectations on the evening of the 10th. In the short term, we will no longer be bearish and should see a few days of volatile rebound;
Currently, ETH is sideways at the 4-hour level, and the daily line has also stood above the middle track, starting to strengthen. The small-level SKDJ is in the overbought zone at the top, with a possible pullback before going up. The support below is around the middle track 2950-2880, and the resistance above is 3170-3250;
Tonight, ADP employment and PMI manufacturing data will be released. In the absence of the big non-farm data, ADP has a greater impact, so be aware of the volatility;
The market is strong and sideways. Last night, funds directly entered the market with over a billion dollars. The second probe of the large bearish candlestick was directly countered, coupled with interest rate cut expectations on the evening of the 10th. In the short term, we will no longer be bearish and should see a few days of volatile rebound;
Currently, ETH is sideways at the 4-hour level, and the daily line has also stood above the middle track, starting to strengthen. The small-level SKDJ is in the overbought zone at the top, with a possible pullback before going up. The support below is around the middle track 2950-2880, and the resistance above is 3170-3250;
Tonight, ADP employment and PMI manufacturing data will be released. In the absence of the big non-farm data, ADP has a greater impact, so be aware of the volatility;
The UAI daily line has once again broken through the downward trend. The current price range of 0.16-0.15 can be monitored for small long positions. This wave can be considered as controlled by the big players, not really following the market downtrend, with some intent to stir things up;
The LIGHT is too strong, it reached almost 50 points, over 5 times the size, the target is perfectly achieved, let's break it down further and fight again!
The market is too strong, liquidity benefits led to a direct rally, ETH has directly broken 3000 with a 7x gain, light also had more than 2x with a few points, RLS has launched contracts as scheduled, alpha has nearly a 30-point increase, brothers, let's enjoy the feast together, take profits in batches and go for more!
At 3 AM tonight, Trump will make a major statement! Pay attention to the fluctuations!
Currently, ETH is in a second exploration trend on the daily chart, experiencing a rebound in the fourth wave on the 4-hour chart, with resistance at 2900 and support at 2750, major support at the previous low of 2620; if the monthly chart does not break the previous month's low, there will be a second wave rebound to establish the trend; if broken, look at the MA200 weekly line support;
The impact of Japan's interest rate hike is fermenting, and the market continues to be under pressure. Last night, U.S. stocks rebounded, but the two ETFs lagged behind, increasing concerns over liquidity. It is not ruled out that someone sold coins to protect U.S. stocks; U.S. stocks rebounded quickly to new highs, while the cryptocurrency market is approaching new lows, with a serious separation of falling together but not rising together. Even if U.S. stocks reach new highs, the rebound strength in the cryptocurrency market may be limited, or it may have to wait until U.S. stocks hit new highs before the cryptocurrency market can exert its strength.
BTC and ETH saw a golden cross on the 4-hour SKDJ in the morning, indicating a short-term oversold rebound during the day. The U.S. market is key, and the daily SKDJ death cross shows a trend of continuing to explore the oversold zone at the bottom. Short-term trading is advised to be quick in and out, and it is not recommended to heavily bottom-fish, waiting for market indicators and sentiment to stabilize. There is minor support at 85000 and 2750, and resistance at 88000 and 2880;
Trump will likely make a significant announcement early Wednesday morning, possibly indicating progress in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. This month may also see the final candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair and non-farm payroll data released, both of which will lead to significant volatility; the U.S. market is for deleveraging, with daily fluctuations of basically over 2%, so be attentive to quick in-and-out trading;
As December just started, a lot of negative news has come rushing in. As the market falls, various bad news floods in: domestic regulatory issues in December, a speech about preemptive interest rate hikes in Japan, MicroStrategy testing the selling of export wind, Powell's resignation little essay, Tether's stability rating downgrade (USDT risk), and crypto attacks starting from November 15. With so much negative news, there must be something appealing; is this really a bear market? This month is destined to have significant volatility trends;
In December, focus on non-farm data and interest rate cut expectations speculation. On December 19, the quadruple witching day, pay attention to major fluctuations in the settlement of U.S. stock options, index futures, and overall market trends looking to first fall and then rise;
ETH's early morning large bearish candle directly broke through 2980 and 2900, accelerating the decline. Since the 28th, it has been continuously indicating a double dip trend, especially highlighting key support levels. Once broken, it will start to accelerate, everything in line with expectations. The daily SKDJ shows a death cross at the top, looking at the previous low for the double dip this week;
On the daily chart, if ETH does not reach the middle track, the rebound will weaken and it will head downwards, first looking at 2750 and then the previous low. Timing points to around the 7th, and the downward momentum looks very strong, so new lows cannot be ruled out. Based on time and space, waiting for the next daily or at least 4-hour double golden cross opportunity;
ETH surged to a new small high in the US market last night as expected, then pulled back; the daily SKDJ is overbought at the top, with a death cross trend entering the peak formation stage. There may be a weak rebound next week, essentially entering a double exploration cycle;
The ETH daily mid-line is under pressure, with sideways fluctuations over the weekend. It has broken out of the upward channel and started to weaken. If it falls below 2980, it may begin to accelerate the pullback towards the support trend around 2900. Breaking below 2900 would officially enter a double exploration pattern;
Altcoins are mainly controlled by a few whales, while most behave like dead dogs following the broader market's weakness, anchored to the overall market;
GIGGLE took off as scheduled last night, with a maximum of 160, an increase of nearly 40 points, the 145 set directly hit the profit-taking, and the friends who followed made a profit!
The upward trend of GIGGLE remains unchanged, with support from the lower trend, it can still be taken down; I see some people saying that there seems to be a destruction plan, we can continue to watch;
Despite repeated failures, Brother Ma Ji has once again increased his position to 8400 ETH, with a liquidation price of 2882. He has placed a limit sell order at 3030 and has also placed 11 sell orders within 3100. The upward resistance indicates that the main force is unlikely to provide assistance so kindly. There hasn't been much fluctuation today; we'll see what tomorrow brings;