Bitcoin recorded an increase of about 2.8% in the last 24 hours and is now trading around $92,500. The inverse head and shoulders (IHS) structure still looks clear on the daily chart with a technical target towards $108,500, but every time the price tries to break higher, its movement continues to be held back.
These two factors explain why the breakout has not been successful.
The good news? Neither is a long-term issue and can shift to support BTC. $BTC
❗ 1. Strong Resistance at $93,700 Still Locks the Price
The IHS pattern that has started to form since November 16 remains valid, but the neckline at $93,700 continues to block all breakout attempts.
As long as Bitcoin does not close the daily candle above this area, the pattern cannot be confirmed.
❗ 2. Whale Less Active — Large Buying Pressure Has Not Decreased
Large whale groups (holders of ≥1,000 BTC) have reduced exposure since November 19.
The number of entities in this group fell to a monthly low on December 3: 1,303 wallets, and is still close to that level.
When whales do not participate, breakouts often weaken because the "big drivers" that usually validate rallies do not join in.
For example, seen on December 2–3:
Bitcoin touched $93,400, but the number of whales dropped from 1,316 → 1,303, and the price then fell to $89,300 (down 4.4%). $BTC
Whales that offload positions when prices rise usually weaken upward momentum.
🔧 Fortunately, These Two Issues Can Still Be Fixed
There are no broken structural factors. Resistance can be broken at any time, and whales can re-enter when momentum is clearer.
⚡ Positive Scenario: Short Squeeze Could Trigger a Breakout
The bullish side of this story comes from liquidation data.
In the last 30 days, short leverage liquidations on Binance reached $3.66 billion, far exceeding long liquidations of $2.22 billion.
This means: short positions are nearly 50% larger, creating a squeeze opportunity that could force a breakout movement.
This month, some small increases of 1–2% have already triggered a series of short liquidations, which then sparked a larger rally.
If BTC closes daily above $93,700, short pressure is likely to trigger a rapid rise to $94,600, the next major resistance.
From there, momentum alone is enough to drive prices higher — even without whale participation.
When momentum strengthens, whales usually come back in.
🎯 Next Breakout Target
If BTC can get past these two levels:
$93,700 (neckline)
$94,600 (strong resistance)
So the path to:
$105,200
$108,500 (full target of the IHS pattern)
will be wide open — a potential increase of about 15–16% from the breakout area.
The IHS pattern remains valid as long as the price stays above $83,800.
Breaking below $80,500 cancels the structure and opens up the risk of a deeper correction, especially if whales continue to offload positions.
🧩 Conclusion
Two reasons hindering BTC breakouts:
1️⃣ Strong resistance at $93,700
2️⃣ Whales are still being cautious
However, both are not permanent issues, and the combination of momentum and the possibility of a short squeeze makes a breakout still very likely.
If BTC $BTC successfully breaks through that key level, the market could see a much stronger bullish push. 🚀
