Miners who have not secured their own electricity generation or diversified their activities risk shutting down in the next couple of years, believes Fred Thiel, head of the largest American miner MARA Holdings. In an interview with CoinDesk, he said that currently, with the simultaneous rise in competition and electricity tariffs, miners' profits are shrinking, and the halving $BTC in 2028 will make existing cryptocurrency mining models unviable.
"Bitcoin mining is a zero-sum game. The more people increase their capacity, the harder it becomes for everyone else. Margins are shrinking, and the lower bound is your electricity costs," Tyl said.
He explained that only miners with reliable access to cheap energy will survive, or those who have expanded their business into adjacent areas such as artificial intelligence. Others are losing in competitive battles, including large companies like Tether, or equipment manufacturers that have started mining #BTC themselves.
"Equipment manufacturers are launching their own mining farms because clients are buying less equipment. The global hash rate continues to grow, which means the profits of all others continue to decline," Tyl said.
In addition to the standard reward for a block, miners also receive fees for transactions in the Bitcoin network. Tyl warned that if these fees or the price $BTC do not increase, after the halving in 2028 the situation will become critical.
"Bitcoin was designed with the understanding that transaction fees would ultimately replace subsidies. But that hasn't happened. If Bitcoin doesn't appreciate by at least 50% per year, then after 2028 the math will become very complicated, and in 2032 it will be even more complicated," said the head of MARA.
He stated that there are currently trends that could change the dynamics: for example, banks pre-purchasing space in blocks (of Bitcoin) to ensure priority in settlements. But so far, nothing specific has emerged, Tyl added.
Small miners in such conditions may be forced to shut down, while large players adapt by building their own generation or expanding activities into AI computing.
"By 2028, you will either be an energy generator, or belong to an energy generator, or collaborate with one. The days when miners were connected to the network are numbered," Tyl said.
Seven out of ten largest public mining companies are already generating income from working with AI or high-performance computing, while others are preparing corresponding projects, CryptoSlate reported earlier. The study says that investors are increasingly assessing companies not only by hash rate but also by the share of capacities involved in AI infrastructure.
