The trading firm QCP Capital has released a new report in which analysts note the recovery of market sentiment amid the potential end of the government crisis in the USA. According to experts, Bitcoin has joined the overall rise of risk assets; however, its further growth may be limited by ongoing sales from early holders.
The U.S. Senate advances a plan to exit the crisis
The U.S. Senate voted to advance a government funding package — a key step toward ending the 40-day shutdown. The amended bill now goes to the House of Representatives and then to Trump for signing. This process may take a few more days; however, optimism about ending the longest government crisis in U.S. history has already supported stock futures.
Bitcoin is recovering alongside risk assets
The first cryptocurrency bounced back along with other risk assets, returning above $106,000 after multiple false breaks below $100,000 last week. This recovery is particularly notable against the backdrop of ongoing sales from early holders and outflows from spot ETFs over the past few sessions.
The Risk Reversals indicator has become less skewed towards put options, indicating a decrease in concerns about another sharp liquidation.
Mixed options flows reflect uncertainty
Activity in the options market remains two-sided. QCP notes large purchases of BTC-26DEC25 112k/120k/150k Call Fly alongside significant sales of BTC-26DEC25 135k/140k Call Spread.
Call Fly is a strategy that allows profit from moderate price increases of the asset. The trader buys call options with low and high strike prices and sells two call options with an intermediate strike price. Profit is maximized if the price of Bitcoin at expiration is at the average strike price — in this case, $120,000.
Call Spread is a simpler strategy where the trader buys one call with a low strike and sells another with a high strike. Maximum profit is limited to the difference between the strike prices. In the case of BTC-26DEC25 135k/140k, the sellers of this spread bet that Bitcoin will not exceed $140,000 by the end of December.
Such flows highlight divided expectations regarding Bitcoin's ability to test its historical highs by the end of the year amid sluggish momentum and continued pressure from early era holders.
The market is adapting to the sales of early holders
QCP analysts note an interesting parallel: the size and chaos of current sales from early holders resemble historical sell-offs from Bitcoin's Silk Road and Mt. Gox. However, as past cycles have shown, markets absorbed similar supply shocks due to deeper liquidity and a greater variety of participants. This suggests that the distribution from early holders' wallets, while creating disturbances, is unlikely to derail Bitcoin's structural trajectory.
Corporate investors and the base scenario
Although Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) — corporate Bitcoin reserves — are showing subdued activity, they remain key drivers of sentiment. Any signs of weak hands among large holders could still weigh on the price. Encouragingly, a confident bounce in Bitcoin from the $100,000 level has given DATs some respite to recover positions.
Sustainable recovery in the spot market supported by macroeconomic factors and stabilization of ETF inflows could revive demand. However, a rally above $118,000 is likely to face renewed selling pressure from early holders.
As long as supply from long-term holders does not weaken, the most likely base scenario remains sideways movement of Bitcoin in the medium term. The current situation resembles a tug-of-war between institutional demand and historical supplies, where the winner will determine the direction of movement in the coming months.
