make_difference: your difference in the market.
Yesterday I wrote that the market was overheated and a correction was looming. Today we have what I warned about: Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, and altcoins saw an even sharper drop.
What I see in the morning
At the time of analysis, BTC is trading around $101,000
Dominance is approaching 61% - capital is concentrating in Bitcoin
Liquidity is leaving secondary assets. The Fear/Greed Index is confidently in the Fear zone, reflecting emotional burnout after panic selling.
The total market capitalization has fallen below $3.8 trillion. Altcoins are losing an average of 8 to 15% per day. The macro tone remains cautious: DXY is rising, treasury yields are holding at high levels, gold is slightly rising - a classic combination when crypto faces pressure from a strong dollar.
BTC: scenario after the crash
My thesis: this is not a cycle reversal, but a deep cleansing.
The $100k level is a psychological support. As long as we hold above it, the structure is not completely broken.
Nearest levels:
Support: $99,000–$100,000 — a key zone where, in my observations, the first large limit orders have already begun to appear.
Resistance: $103,500 → $106,000 — if the market pulls back there, I will follow the volume; without confirmation - I will not engage.
EMA 50 on the daily is above $106k - the price is deep below it, which increases the likelihood of consolidation rather than a V-shaped rebound.
Plan: I am not catching knives. I am waiting for stabilization of daily candles with decreasing sales volume. A potentially interesting zone for accumulation - $99-100k with a stop below $97k, but only upon signs of holding.
Altcoins:
Altcoins look weak today, and that is putting it mildly. With BTC dominance around 61%, capital is leaving them without hesitation. Solana (SOL) has retraced to around $155 - exactly where I expected the movement after overheating, although I did not anticipate such a deep correction. Other top altcoins (ETH, AVAX, LINK) show similar 10-15% declines.
My opinion: now is not the time for new positions in altcoins. If BTC consolidates above $103k, it will be possible to return to selective buying of trend leaders. For now - observation mode. The only thing that worries me is if we assume we are in a bull market, there is nowhere to fall below 96k; if this does happen, it will be trouble.
Conclusion
In summary: the market has experienced the expected, but painful cleansing. BTC ≈ $101k, altcoins are in decline, dominance is rising to 61%. The sentiment index is in fear, and this is exactly the moment when cold calculation should be activated.
I am holding back, not averaging down in panic, watching the zones $100k and $99k - that's where recovery might begin.
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make_difference: your distinction in the market. Hugging you 🫂