Bitcoin (BTC) is gaining momentum again and remains above $110,000, after withstanding weeks of correction and institutional volatility. Although the flows from Bitcoin ETFs have shown a mixed pattern in recent days, the technical data and historical market behavior point to a possible recovery phase towards the end of 2025.

The pattern that anticipates the rebound

A recent report from Copper Research suggests that the current price structure of Bitcoin fits almost perfectly with the historical cycle of 'fear and reset' observed in the markets over the last few years.

The analysis highlights that after a -10% correction, Bitcoin usually enters a consolidation phase of around 11 days, followed by a rebound of 15% to 30% during the next 8 to 12 weeks.

This statistic becomes relevant in the current scenario: the recent drop to $102,000 could have marked a bearish exhaustion point, from where the price would be trying to stabilize for a new bullish momentum.

Technical signals supporting the narrative

On the technical front, BTC rebounded in the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone at $106,453, which has historically acted as a reversal level.

As long as the price remains above this support, analysts see it feasible to return to the 50-day EMA at $113,423, and subsequently towards the $125,000–$130,000 range by mid-December.

A sustained close above $115,000 would confirm that the consolidation structure is complete, reactivating the medium-term trend with a clearly bullish bias.

Mixed ETFs, but momentum intact

Recent flows in Bitcoin ETFs show mixed signals: some outflows reflect institutional caution, while smaller inflows maintain the support base.

However, technical momentum and long-term interest have not disappeared. In fact, on-chain metrics suggest that addresses accumulating BTC at low prices have increased by 6% since early October, reinforcing the idea that the current pause could be more of a breather than a trend change.

Outlook for December

If historical behavior repeats, the market could be entering the pre-rally phase of the year-end.

Copper Research anticipates that Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $130,000 before December, supported by an improvement in global sentiment, lower selling pressure, and greater capital rotation towards digital assets.

Conclusion

The price of Bitcoin maintains its technical structure intact despite recent volatility.

If support at $106,000 holds, the chances of a new push toward the $125K–$130K range increase significantly.

With the market still dominated by fear and indecision, historical data suggests that the timing of the rebound could be closer than it seems.

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