Market prediction for the evening of October 16th:
Fundamentals: Resistance formed at 4100 points above, creating an upper shadow, maintaining fluctuations above.
Market sentiment: The market rebound at the 3940 position has mostly digested the evening's market in advance.
News:
1. The Republican temporary funding bill once again failed to advance in the Senate - On October 15th local time, the U.S. Senate voted 51 to 44, failing to advance the Republican temporary funding bill again.
2. With the U.S. government shutdown entering its third week, the term 'November' is being mentioned more frequently in Washington, suggesting that this funding stalemate is likely to continue into next month.
On March 16th, from 21:00 to 22:00, Federal Reserve officials (Waller, Bullard, Mester, Bowman) gave speeches. The above situation is judged to be favorable for news, leading to this wave of rising market. Currently, the overall trend still maintains a bearish outlook. From a macro perspective, it is possible that the main force may raise the price before a sharp drop, washing out the bulls in the 4000-4200 range.
Operation suggestion: Enter short at 4060-4100, target position 3940 (can wait for a price surge at 21:20, then enter short after the K-line shows an upper shadow signal, remind to observe for 10-20 minutes first).
