From chasing high positions during the 2017 bull market to facing the risk of zero during the LUNA crash in 2022, and now being able to seize opportunities in chaotic markets, these 6 years of ups and downs in the crypto world, the pitfalls I’ve encountered and the money I've lost have all become the 'bloody lessons' I want to share with friends who are just entering the market today. Especially now, with the market direction unclear and intense long-short battles, these experiences forged from bull and bear cycles may help you avoid 3 years of detours.
1. Trends are like the wind; don't think about 'sticking to the end.'
In 2021, during the FIL fire, I rushed in with a full warehouse, watching the price rise from 200U to 400U, always feeling that it could go higher, thinking 'to eat from the beginning to the end.' As a result, after just a few days, the hype faded, and the price fell all the way to 80U, and all the profits I had made were given back, even incurring a loss. Later, the LUNA crash made me understand even more: the mission of altcoins is to help you earn short-term profits, not to let you 'stay together for a long time.' Any project cannot escape the cycle, no matter how much it rises. As long as the profits reach expectations (for example, the 30% take-profit line I set later), gradually change positions to lock in profits; don’t wait until the tide goes out to panic.
2. The Signals of 'Luring Longs' and 'Luring Shorts' Are Actually Hidden in the Market
Last year, BTC was sideways at a high of 28000U for a week, suddenly surged to 29500U, and I thought it would break through, so I quickly increased my position, but the price fell back to 27000U that same day — this is a typical 'whale trap'. I later summarized the rule: a high position sideways followed by a surge, especially a false breakthrough without volume support, must be prepared to sell; conversely, when BTC fell to 15500U last year, it created a new low and quickly pulled back to 17000U. Many people panicked and cut losses, but I increased my position, and it later rose to 23000U. This is the 'last wash' signal to lure shorts. Currently, there are many false breakouts in the market; understanding these two signals can help avoid many pitfalls.
3. The 'Strength and Weakness' of Contrarian Coins is Most Obvious When the Market is Chaotic.
In the second half of 2023, when the market was experiencing widespread declines, most altcoins fell by over 20%, yet a certain AI concept coin managed to remain flat. I noticed it at the time, and later when the market warmed up, it directly rose by 80%; there was also a time when the market was generally rising, but a certain public chain coin fell slightly against the trend, so I decisively cleared my position, and within a few days it fell by 30%. Later I understood: when the market falls, coins that remain flat or rise slightly tend to have funds supporting them and are likely to rise; when the market rises, coins that remain flat or fall slightly tend to be overlooked and are likely to fall — the more chaotic the market, the more useful this 'strength-weakness code' becomes.
4. The Core of Position Management: Don’t Average Down When Losing
In my early years, I often made a mistake: when the coin I bought fell, I thought of 'averaging down', and as a result, the more I averaged down, the more I got trapped, ultimately being deeply stuck. For example, I bought a certain coin in 2020 at 100U, when it fell to 80U I doubled down, then to 60U I averaged down again, and finally it fell to 30U and I just lay flat. Later, I realized that position management is not about 'averaging losses', but about 'letting profits run'. You should add positions when making profits — for instance, when a coin breaks through a previous high and confirms the trend, then slowly add; during losses, stop loss decisively, and don’t cling to the fantasy of 'waiting for a rebound', otherwise you will only fall deeper.
5. 'Advance Two, Retreat One' in Trends, Don't Get Shaken Out
In 2021, ETH rose from 1200U to 4800U, going through several pullbacks in between: rising 20%, falling 10%, then rising 20%, and falling 10% again. One time during a pullback, I panicked and sold early, resulting in more than doubling later, which made me regret it. I later understood that after confirming the bottom, rising is never instant; 'advance two, retreat one' is the rhythm of a healthy trend. Just like some strong coins now, every time they pull back to key support levels, it's an opportunity. Don’t exit just because of minor fluctuations, otherwise you won’t be able to partake in the 'big gains' of the main upward wave.
6. The 'Four Realms' of Watching the Market Determine How Much You Can Earn
When I first entered the market, I only focused on indicators like MACD and KDJ, resulting in losses from chasing highs and selling lows — this is the 'third-rate player looking at indicators'; later I began to study the white papers and real-world applications of individual projects. I was able to make a bit of money and became a 'second-rate player looking at tokens'; until the AI and RWA sectors exploded in 2023, I followed the sector and randomly picked a medium-quality token, making a 50% profit, and finally understood the reasoning of 'first-rate players look at sectors'; while those who don’t analyze and purely rely on tips are 'bottom-tier gamblers' who will eventually lose everything. Now, before I trade, I first look at which sector is leading, and then pick coins from that sector, which greatly increases my win rate.
7. All Indicators Are 'Derivatives', Volume-Price Is King
One time I saw a MACD golden cross for a certain coin and thought it would rise, so I bought in, but the price didn’t rise and instead fell. Later, I looked at the volume chart and realized that there was no volume increase at the time of the golden cross — this is the trap of 'blindly believing in indicators'. In reality, all technical indicators are derived from 'volume' and 'price'; for a price increase to be credible, there must be funds entering the market (volume expansion). Just like some coins now, they look good on the K-line, but the volume is getting smaller and smaller, such upward trends are not sustainable. Understanding the relationship between volume and price is more useful than any indicator.
8. The 'Skill' of Going with the Flow: Look for support when prices rise, look for resistance when prices fall.
Last year, when BTC was in a downward trend, I always thought of 'buying the dip', but every time it rebounded to 22000U it would fall back — later I understood that in a downward trend, you need to focus on resistance levels; when it rebounds to resistance levels, it is a signal to exit; but this year when BTC is in a fluctuating upward trend, every time it pulls back to 19000U it will rise, during this time the support level is a buying opportunity. Now that the market is stuck between long and short, it’s even more important to distinguish the trend: in an upward trend, look for support; in a downward trend, look for resistance; don’t get it wrong, or it’s easy to make mistakes.
Lastly, let’s talk about the current market situation.
Recently, there has been a lot of market news, and the long-short battles are fierce, with a big bullish candle one moment and a big bearish candle the next. But I never change my judgment based on a single K-line: when it rises, I don’t blindly chase, and when it falls, I don’t panic and cut losses. Instead, I refer to the 8 insights above, observing volume-price, trends, and sectors. The crypto market has never been about 'gambling', but rather 'keeping logic and controlling rhythm'. As long as you can maintain your mindset and use the right methods, even in a chaotic market, you can find opportunities to break through.
If you are also confused in the market, consider saving these insights and pondering them slowly. Follow me @分析师T神 , I will share more market analysis and trading skills derived from practical experience, accompanying you through the bull and bear markets.
